[Bleep]

As the world supply of oil goes down the price must be raised in order to divert the remaining supply away from poor countries to the rich ones.

Industrialized agriculture falls apart as fuel for vehicles and irrigation pumps and petrochemicals derived from oil and synthetic rubber for vehicle parts becomes too expensive for them.

War for oil also is being used to divert supplies by destroying nation's ability to procure and consume the black gold.

SA faces new fuel shortage crisis (link) The Moerane Commission into last year's fuel supply crisis has reported that another crisis could emerge in the second half of this year because of scheduled refinery shutdowns.

Iraq reels from acute fuel shortage (link) Baghdad: At gas stations around Baghdad, the line of cars waiting to fill their tanks with increasingly rare petrol now reaches 60 to 80 vehicles. Some prefer to spend the night in their vehicles on streets to maintain their turn in the long line. The nationwide fuel shortage is so severe that 20 litres now cost about $20 (Dh73.56).

Suicide car bomb kills two (link) Due to a severe fuel shortage, lines of cars at Baghdad gas stations often stretch for several kilometres, and drivers sometimes have to wait overnight to fill their cars.

Manipur faces fuel shortage (link) IMPHAL: As a result of the extortion notice issued by the NSCN (IM) demanding Rs. 50 lakh from the Assam Oil Division of the Indian Oil Corporation, petrol tankers have been unable to ply for over 16 days along the two National Highways. Unable to ferry petrol and diesel from Khatkati in Assam, almost all petrol pumps in and around Imphal went dry from Saturday morning while some others still continue to sell diesel.

Aman cultivation may face setback for want of irrigation (link) NAOGAON, Aug 17 (UNB): Transplanted aman cultivation may face a setback in the district this season for want of proper irrigation. Farmers said they were forced to install pumps to irrigate their already dried up cropland due to inadequate rainfall during the monsoon. The farmers in the district installed 24,000 irrigation pumps. Of these, 1,380 are deep tube-wells. But, the pumps could not be operated smoothly because of diesel shortage, they added.

Food Shortage in Nepal (link) There is an acute food shortage in upper Mustang as the stock of food grains in the Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) depot there has been depleted," Chief District Officer (CDO) of Mustang, Pradeep Raj Kandel, told this daily over telephone.

Southern Africa faces food shortage: Angolan official (link) Director of the Agrarian Development Institute (IDA) of Angola, Afonso Canga, has said that the southern region of the continent is going through hard times, particularly in the field of food production, it is reported on Thursday.

Fuel prices a threat to traders (link) A STEADY supply of food in Kampala's [Uganda] major markets has continued despite a fear that rains and unpredictable fuel prices may hamper the supply, a weekly survey has shown.

Beirut hit by massive fuel shortage (link) Traffic is being hindered in northern Beirut as motorists clamour for fuel around the city. The World Health Organisation (WHO) says the fuel shortage in Lebanon pose a great danger to health. The WHO has warned that if fuel is not delivered this week, 60% of all hospitals will not function properly.

Lebanon and Syria combined Situation Report 31 Aug 2006 (link) Marjayoun Hospital closed on 12 August due to fuel shortage

Zimbabwe's power woes worsen (link) "People have said our country has become uninhabitable," an angry Tigere told IWPR. "I used to disagree - not having come face to face with the situation on the ground. Now I know different. My children have lost their self-esteem because they have been brought back to the Dark Ages.

Tajikistan : Cotton Industry faces depletion (link) Shortage of fuel and lubricants which culminated in the price hike has worsened the situation further and Tajik agriculture Ministry has acknowledged that investors in the cotton industry were not in a position to supply fuel adequately.

At Least Someone In The US Gets It:

High Prices For Diesel Gas Affecting Lubbock Farmers, Truck Drivers (link) "If we break even, it will be a miracle," he says. "It's just frustrating, because it used to be the other way around. Diesel was cheaper than gas. Must be a shortage of diesel. That's why the price is staying up."

[BrazilianPO]

Yep, nothing new here. The poorest economies will suffer first. Most of Africa will suffer even more, despite some crazy comments posted here that because a large portion of African people live from subsistence farming, Africa would cope well with the lack of oil. That is BS. Africa's economies are much more complex than that, they have large populations and will suffer just as any other economy.

But anyway, everyone will suffer and it will be huge mess.

[Bleep]

But as long as that fuel is available for the beneficiaries of big tax breaks, what's the problem?

[Cobra_Strike]

Demand destruction? Seems to me that this has been predicted before...as a 'right before collapse' event.

[Kristen]

With Globalization in play, the rich countries can afford the oil and the poor cannot lasse fare capitalism is responsible. The U.S. economy is doing bad right now though. People are spending less and being smarter.

[Doly]

People are spending less and being smarter.

Spending less, yes. Being smarter? I'm not that sure.

[JustinFrankl]

With a global capitalist system, the weakest will be the first to fall, since "growth" must always involve taking something, and that something comes either from other people or the planet. The weakest are the easiest people from whom to take.

Unfortunately, the stronger nations of the world don't have much to cheer about, for two reasons. First, their strength is dependent on there being increasing numbers of weak and poor on whom to prey. Second, "strength" and "weakness" are relative, and subject to rapid change in an environment of declining available energy.

[DantesPeak]

Very good comments by JustinFrankl:

The weakest will be the first to fall. As of today, the US - with it's worldwide dollar regime - remains firmly in place at the top of the food/energy pyramid. Other countries with readily acceptable strong currencies or positive trade balances also have no worries at this time. The weakest, those with existing trade deficits and/or unwanted currencies, can't buy energy on credit - which is essentially what the US has been doing for some years now.

[lateStarter]

Very good comments by JustinFrankl:

The weakest will be the first to fall. As of today, the US - with it's worldwide dollar regime - remains firmly in place at the top of the food/energy pyramid. Other countries with readily acceptable strong currencies or positive trade balances also have no worries at this time. The weakest, those with existing trade deficits and/or unwanted currencies, can't buy energy on credit - which is essentially what the US has been doing for some years now.

That's a scary way to put it DP (if I may call you that) - "Energy on Credit". Reminds me of some other credit schemes that are already heading south around the world. Hmm...

[Gil-Galad]

The problem for Europe is that as the oil becomes expensive and the water runs out there will be a huge migration of africans northwards.

This is already happening in the Canary Islands where boatloads of africans, many dead are turning up on a daily basis.

[gg3]

Right, and with the tide of immigration will also come Extreme Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis, recently found in Africa, > 95% fatal within one month. The only thing worse would be ebola or perhaps smallpox.

So don't count on the rich nations doing too darn well after the plagues get started. "Demand destruction: it's for Everyone!"

[thor]

The problem for Europe is that as the oil becomes expensive and the water runs out there will be a huge migration of africans northwards.

This is already happening in the Canary Islands where boatloads of africans, many dead are turning up on a daily basis.

Is there a nightmare in the making? Will there be a time that Fort Europe will just machine gun the folk back from where they came from? I'm curious how altruistic the Spanish and Italians become when they are being invaded by people who don't speak the language, have no transferrable skills and bring some scary diseases with them. We are talking about thousands that arrive by boat each week, it's an invasion by any standard. The social democracies are on the verge of collapse when thousands if not millions imported unemployed come to collect there monthly pay and demand top notch medical care and schooling.

[rogerhb]

Zimbabwe's problems are nothing to do with PO. It's a sequence of tragic events that started with colonialism.

[rwwff]

With Globalization in play, the rich countries can afford the oil and the poor cannot lasse fare capitalism is responsible. The U.S. economy is doing bad right now though. People are spending less and being smarter.

If this is bad, the US needs more of it. I think folks have forgotten what high inflation coupled with 10% unemployment looks like. Just because we haven't had it in a couple decades, doesn't mean it won't come again. The US economy, for all its warts, continues racing along its path of luxurious consumption, production, and importation.

As far as who is responsible, exactly why will anyone care? Is there some organization that is going to say to the US, you can't have any more oil imports, and you're going to have to give up half of that 7 mpbd you currently produce?? Not likely in this universe.

In fact, instead of helping, we are finding every way we possibly can to strip these poor countries of their access to inexpensive grain. Eventually, the only food they will be permitted to have, will come with a USAID (or comparable) sticker on it.

Bow down, and recite the Glories of Freedom. Then you will be permitted to eat your daily ration.

[lorenzo]

A bunch of highly selective nonsense, so let's counter:

Africa enjoys record economic growth

afrol News, 2 May - Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth is projected at 5.3 percent in 2006, the same rate as in 2005, according to the IMF's African Regional Economic Outlook. As last year, Angola is Africa's fastest growing economy, leading the trend of oil exporters growing faster than oil importers. Only in Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles and Zimbabwe, the IMF expects negative growth rates in 2006.

Africa is in a state of record economic growth "thanks in part to prudent policies," according to the latest data released by the International Monetary Found (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook. Last year's strong growth is to be repeated this year, the forecast shows. The very high oil prices however are resulting in higher growth rates for oil producing nations and a somewhat lower growth for oil importing nations.

The IMF report attributes the projected maintenance of relatively strong growth despite higher oil import prices, to "many countries' continued pursuit of prudent macroeconomic policies" and to strong global demand growth. "Higher growth in oil-exporting countries should offset slower growth in oil-importing countries," the Fund noted.

In 2005, economic growth in sub-Saharan African oil exporting countries was measured at 6.8 percent of GDP, while it is expected to be at 8.0 percent this year. Simultaneously, African oil importers saw their economy growing by 4.8 percent last year, going back to a still comfortable 4.5 percent this year. Even when corrected by population growth, per capita growth in oil importing nations stands at 2.9 percent this year in Africa.

As last year, the most impressing growth is to be measured in Angola this year. With a real GDP growth of 15.7 percent in 2005, Angola is set to speed up growth to an impressive 26.0 percent this year, according to the IMF. Also other oil exporters, including Nigeria, Congo Brazzaville, Cameroon, Chad and Gabon, are experiencing considerable growth this year. Equatorial Guinea is the only oil exporting country seeing detraction and can expect a negative growth of 1.1 percent.

Among non-oil exporters, the picture is more differentiated. Strongest growth is expected in Malawi (8.3 percent), mostly connected to the poor country's bumper harvest this year, Mozambique (7.9 percent), Sierra Leone (7.4 percent), Congo Kinshasa and Cape Verde (both 7.0 percent). All these five countries will experience a much higher GDP growth that population growth, producing per capita growth between 3.9 (Congo) and 6.2 percent (Malawi).

http://www.afrol.com/articles/19006

Want me to continue?


And when it comes to energy, read this:

THE INGA DAMS: ENOUGH TO POWER ALL AFRICA

[Note from JD: This is a guest post by Lorenzo.]

Here's some information which totally debunks news about "developing countries" collapsing due to peakoil, "massive die-off" in Africa, etc....

The Inga Dams on the Congo have the potential to power the entire continent of Africa and its future industrialisation AND even sell excess electricity to Europe. Inga has the world's largest hydroelectric potential (42,000 MW, which equals 40 BIG nuke plants, or 100 BIG coal-fired power plants), bigger than the Three Gorges and the Itaipu. But nobody knows the Inga - and peak oilers simply don't want to know it.

Maps and data on the Inga Dams (click to enlarge)

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... r-all.html

United Nations: Congo River to Power Africa Out of Poverty
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multiling ... =4738&l=en

Energy to produce biofuels, from the world's largest dam
http://biopact.com/2006/09/energy-to-pr ... orlds.html


Stop the eternal bvll plz.

[rwwff]

Stop the eternal bvll plz.

Sure, no prob. As soon as the so-called "potential" turns into reality.

I wouldn't hold your breath.

[CARVER]

Stop the eternal bvll plz.

Sure, no prob. As soon as the so-called "potential" turns into reality.

I wouldn't hold your breath.

You mean this potential?

In 1972 the Government launched two large projects, with an estimated cost of about US$250 million each, to make use of cheap energy produced at Inga, a site with a huge hydro-electric potential on the Zaire river west of Kinshasa. A steel mill was built with Italian financing, but never operated at more than 10 percent of its capacity. The other project was the construction of the Inga-Shaba power line, partly financed by the Export-Import Bank of the USA. The objective of the project was to supply power from the Inga dam to the mining industry in Shaba, 1800 km. away. Cheaper alternatives were available locally, but the project was launched for purely political purposes, as a means for the central authorities to keep control over the secession-prone province. Implementation of the project took much longer than expected, and its final cost escalated to an estimated US$1.5 billion. For the following two decades, the debt for the Inga-Shaba project has remained by far the largest part of Zaire’s debt burden. Read more.. p.4 (pdf)

I still can't find much about the progress, this is the lastest info I could find: see p.13-14 (pdf). Seems those two projects mentioned above still need rehabilitation. Will cheaper alternatives be available this time? (According to Lorenzo's law on exponential exponential technological innovation, or whatever, we'll come up with a cheaper alternative within a decade, and then the DR of the Congo would be burried under an even bigger mountain of debt?)

[Bleep]

When the topic of this thread is "weakest nations collapse" how does it counter this argument to point to non-weakest nations and say "gosh they're growing"?