[RattlesnakeJake]

It seems logical to me that exporting crude oil will not always be in the best interest of oil rich countries. They may wish to save their oil for internal use, save it to export later at a higher price, or go into the oil-products business. (Why is Saudi building more refineries?)

[Concerned]

It seems logical to me that exporting crude oil will not always be in the best interest of oil rich countries. They may wish to save their oil for internal use, save it to export later at a higher price, or go into the oil-products business. (Why is Saudi building more refineries?)

Saudi have massive reserves of oil and a relatively low population in comparison to those reserves. Hence exporting is still logical.

Indonesia or Australia may be places to ask the original question of when to stop exporting oil.

Even when the oil you consume exceeds the oil you produce it may still get exported. If I own a company producing oil why should I sell it internally at a discount when I can get more on the open market?

Then there are different grades of oil. A company might produce a grade that is not required locallly and production only makes sense if the end market is for export.

[Ancien_Opus]

Saudi Arabia's crude production is problematic at best. Quite possible they've peaked on light sweet crude "Matt Simmons". Saudi Arabia has enormous resources of heavy sour crude such as the Manifa oil field. The aftermarket price is very good for refined products so it simply makes sense for Saudi Arabia to go into the refining businesss. Think of it has a verticle expansion to their oil business. In addition to the heavy crude refinery they're bluilding in Saudi, they have heavy crude refinery investments in China and the U.S.

The politcal problems with exporters usually center upon oil subsidies. The people get a bit restless when the subsidies dry up and politics gets pretty hot. Indonesia is a good example where even after exports dried up, the government bought oil and sold it at a loss to ice political problems with the population. They are experiencing fuel riots now as they've had to cut off subsidy purchases. Indonesia still produces a lot
of domestic oil but is a net importer and member of OPEC.

The big question is whether any exporter decides to husband the resource. This would create a false shortage and allow that country to get a better future price other than the current price. Such a strategy could cause a recession and backfire with a resulting lowering of demand and consequently a lower future price.

[mekrob]

The big question is whether any exporter decides to husband the resource. This would create a false shortage and allow that country to get a better future price other than the current price. Such a strategy could cause a recession and backfire with a resulting lowering of demand and consequently a lower future price

Not to mention the very real possibility of being 'liberated' by the West if that certain nation is a major exporter or a key exporter (such as a steady supply to the West of light or ultra light oil).