[erb]

long time lurker first time poster, thanks for the education PO guys/gals

does anyone here see a need for this capacity in 2020?

"A.P. Moeller-Maersk, Hutchison Whampoa and three other companies said last month they are investing in the second phase of Shanghai's $16 billion Yangshan port, which is on track to be the world's busiest harbor by 2010. The expansion will double the city's cargo-handling capacity by the end of the decade."

with all the worlds construction and growth happening like this for future business, can anyone see a slowdown in the future?

governments and businesses alike would be preparing, but things will continue like they always have till we hit THE wall

[aldente]

like your locator: Toronto, get me out of there, eventhough I don't understand it. Where would you rather be?

[TITAN]

PO is going to happen no matter what simply because oil is a finite resource and it isn't going to last forever, period.

There are no cheap alternatives, and a world economy based on buying useless crap and building huge houses can't survive on expensive energy.

Not that any of this worrying matters much, if Iran keeps up it's idiotic stance on nuclear devlopment and the bird flu keeps progressing, there will be plenty of oil for quite a while longer. I figure those two problems, if they come to fruition (one will for sure), will extend the plateau we are at by at least 10-15 years...

[KevO]

long time lurker first time poster, thanks for the education PO guys/gals

welcome!

[peaker_2005]

You know, it's entirely possible for the world to be screwed overnight. All it'd take is for a war between the West and the ME countries to break out.

ME countries shut valves, except for selves. Therein lies the Downfall of Western Civilisation. Prices skyrocket to $200+ very quickly if this happens, and all bets are off. Nuclear is a definite possibility ("If we can't function, why on earth should we let them?" BOOM!).

This is easily one of the most frightening scenarios, and the most frightening thing about it is that something in me cannot put it beyond the realms of possibility... There's still oil, but it's now much more scarce.

[erb]

thanks for the welcome

like your locator: Toronto, get me out of there, eventhough I don't understand it. Where would you rather be?

id rather be somewhere outside of canadas largest city, especialy when T.S.H.T.F.

i also think that things could go bad overnight (or very quickly) for many reasons, i just wish i knew all this like 6 years ago, before i came to toronto to go to college for something as stupid as advertising/graphics. now im working for a HUGE printing company.

i had no idea how bad things were just 4 years ago, and i guess thats a good example how people cant wake up
like my sig says people know somethings wrong they just cant figure out what it is.

i cant even remeber what oppened my eyes (maybe reading 9/11 info) it was just "holy shit peak oil"

it baffels me that were on the cusp of a huge energy crisis/down turn and theres still expansive construction going on in anticipation of MORE growth

[SHiFTY]

For god's sake, you guys are worrying yourselves to death.

The doomerosity in here is beyond the pale, seriously even at a 2% decline rate after 2007, there will still be a massive global economy for decades to come. Shipping may actually replace air-freight and eventually passenger travel due to price rises. Shipping is also likely to become an even more massive industry, as ships can run on the filthiest bunker oil which is like tar. There will be no shortage of this.

There is a small chance of war in the ME, but remember we just had one and it didn't mean the end of the world.

Seriously, chill the fark out. Only the most mad doomer would believe half the predictions on this board, and they are probably already living in a cave in the mountains.

[emersonbiggins]

Shifty, the economy is built on a paradigm of infinite growth; you know that, I know that. That's the problem. 401(k)s depend on solid growth. A 2% yearly decline has the nasty side effect of compounding the chaos that it triggers in an infinite growth climate.

To address your shipping comments:
Even if container ships can run on bunker oil, one wonders why they aren't doing it now, as it would obviously help their bottom line. And if they are, why do consumer costs keep rising? As far as shipping replacing passenger travel - WTF? We can't all telecommute. And the cheap overseas shipping has to transition to land transport at some point, and - bingo! - we're fucked.

[an_amok_canuck]

id rather be somewhere outside of canadas largest city, especialy when T.S.H.T.F.

New Brunswick awaits my son, seafood... country living... no work... a frigid paradise.

There will be an economy and once the curve REALLY starts to bite, the fat kid on a skinny block isn't what you really want to be... i.e. Hollyweird Fl.. warm, but won't be fuzzy warm next fall. Global warming is a fact... ask NOLA and we took a pretty good swat this year. Two weeks without electric ( hydro to our northern friends ) is a sobering experience.

The larger question is how bad the economy is going to go and how rapidly the curve will take over.... if the housing bubble is any indication the 'currency' is already in pretty deep trouble... hedging with gold can help but the change is going to be pretty rapid, the rapid shift to the 'true' value of things will be quite traumatic. Toronto will be civilized, but will Philly? Chicago?? The problem is the good old US of A thinks it has an entitlement to cheeseburgs and SUV's... taking them away will be problematic.

Rural self sufficiency has a romantic ring, but just isn't practical for populations as large and uneducated, as far as the 'The Simple Life' as we are... its REAL hard work. Just lifting enough hay to feed the cow who will keep you alive during a Canadian winter will half kill you. There are means to heat without most of the 'convenient' sources of recent past. Hemp can be grown literally in a 'pot' Wink but grows quite well on the front and back lawns of the suburban behemoths that will need heat in the next winter or two, also a good food source, hemp oil burns as biodiesel as well.. One of many changes that will come, I think.

Thing's are about to change and the change will be traumatic, keep an open and prepared mind, and you will be better off than most. Can we predict exactly what will happen... nope, but it will start accelerating soon. Perhaps people in public positions will at least start talking about what we face, rather than ignoring it.than ignoring it.

An economy based on consumption is a bad assumption.... we need to adopt different values and soon. How to induce the political will to bring this about is the HUGE question. One thing is certain is a whole new set of values need to replace super sunday... the glorification of a dying way of life. The economic upheaval is gonna be substantial.

[ubercynicmeister]

Welcome!

Yes, Peak oil will happen, no matter what.

The Closet Corucopians (we'll have heaps of Oil fer decades!) are right, when they say we have heaps of Oil, but we won't have nearly enough oil, and that will start to "turn" form being more-or-less in balance to demand-outstripping-supply sometime within the next few years.

No-one is saying "we're gunna run out of oil tomorrow!". We're saying we will have a small, but significant gap between that amount of Oil that can be extracted and that amount of Oil that is needed - demand exceeds supply. In a Freemarket, when the supply of such a vital commodity as Oil is lower than the demand - and likely to increasingly trend that way, too - the price of Oil skyrockets. Now, Oil (as I hope we all know) is not merely used for a few things, but predicates and is the foundation for our entire economy.

It was the same (though unacknowledged) for the Former Soviet Union. They, too depended on the price of Oil remaining at a certain level and when it went off that level,,that was the last straw on the already overburdend economic camel's back, and it broke.

That's why Peak Oil is such a disaster waiting to happen. Note Well: Peak Oil need not become Peak Energy. This is where the real debate is, not the Closet Cornucopian idea of "we'll have oil for aaages".

No, we won;'t - we'll have a smal-but-hiughly leveraged gap between supply, which will be exceeded by demand - and because our clueless modern economy leverages things so damn nicely, that "gap", even if it's tiny,. will be "leverageed" to become enormous, once it's been stufed through the various economic "engines" that power our economy.

I say again: Peak Oil & it's implications are now inevitable. Peak Energy is - I beleive - not inevitable. It's just "likely", that's all.

[pup55]

are investing in the second phase of Shanghai's $16 billion Yangshan port, which is on track to be the world's busiest harbor by 2010.

In the post-PO mercantilist idea of a zero-sum game, if this harbor increases then some other harbor elsewhere is going to lose.

They're just optimistic. They think they are going to win.

[Armageddon]

if ghawar starts to collapse, it could collapse at a very quick rate, there is no telling what could happen. I could see ghawar declining at a 5-10 % rate like the north sea, and other fields on the world have. There are implications for pumping in that much salt water to increase the extraction rate. Iran could also take a couple million barells off the market because of rising tensions. africa is another hot spot with terrorists. many things could happen and in a short time.

[DesertBear2]

Iran could also take a couple million barells off the market because of rising tensions. africa is another hot spot with terrorists. many things could happen and in a short time.

Iran could take more than a few million barrels off the market if they are attacked. The best way for them to hit back at the US and EU would be to broadly attack oil production and shipping infrastructure around the gulf.

Iran's words and actions almost seem like the bait for an energy trap. And they are aware that W would probably walk right into that trap....just like in Iraq.

Good prediction about Africa. Today militants in Nigeria hit a Shell refinery and have taken off about 226,000 barrels of production. We can see where this is all going......

[Armageddon]

iran does seem a little arrogant. I wouldnt be suprised if they are trying to sucker W into a war either. They are probably being propped up with chinese and russian ammo, like the sunburn. Those war ships would be sitting ducks against the sunburn missile. times are definately getting interesting.

[falser]

2005 was pretty interesting when looked at through the Peak Oil lens. 2006 should be even more interesting. But I now am confident the actual peak will not occur in 2006. Wth the Iran attack now seemingly imminent (moreso than I thought), the escalation of tension is becoming alarming. The day Israel hits Iran I predict crude will hit $80 and will head to $100 or more once the implications set in. This will set off a massive scaling back of oil use and conservation. It'll be 1978 all over again except Peak Oil will not have even occured yet. There will be outcries from the general public whining about how the oil companies are screwing them, the bunch of sheep won't even know what's (not) coming down the pipe.

[shakespear1]

There is another interesting difference now. PEOPLE are hearing this message at a much faster rate (INTERNET) and have access to a wider scope of information. Consequently we can see through all this idioting activity and realize that the boys in power are playing the wrong game. But than haven't they always. Let's give the other gender a chance and perhaps things will be different. I know, FAT CHANCE !!!

[peaker_2005]

There is another interesting difference now. PEOPLE are hearing this message at a much faster rate (INTERNET) and have access to a wider scope of information. Consequently we can see through all this idioting activity and realize that the boys in power are playing the wrong game. But than haven't they always. Let's give the other gender a chance and perhaps things will be different. I know, FAT CHANCE !!!

No, no, then we'd have wars declared every time a national leader insulted them during the wrong time of the month.

I kids, I kids. Actually, It'd be quite interesting to see a female leader. We really don't have enough of a sample - Of the two I can think of, one is almost universally loathed (Margaret Thatcher) and the other relatively unknown - Helen Clark of NZ.

I haven't heard of any MAJOR problems on the other side of the Tasman, but you never hear much about the news on them (except regarding us beating them at sport or them beating us). NZ gave us a really good run for our money the last few times we played them in Cricket - whatever they're doing, it seems to be working.

Something I've observed:

Men don't get emotionally attached enough to most issues.
Women get TOO emotionally attached to most issues.

A STABLE husband-and-wife team might be just what the doctor ordered.

[Imcal]

I kids, I kids. Actually, It'd be quite interesting to see a female leader. We really don't have enough of a sample - Of the two I can think of, one is almost universally loathed (Margaret Thatcher) and the other relatively unknown - Helen Clark of NZ.

There have been a few others: http://womenshistory.about.com/library/ ... 10128a.htm.

No, no, then we'd have wars declared every time a national leader insulted them during the wrong time of the month.

About the equivalent of men thinking with their privates . Quite a few (or even most) of the ladies in high leadership positions have gone through menopause anyway.

[ubercynicmeister]

And Margaret Thatcher didn't have the Falkland's War? A fight over an even smaller scrap of territory than Iraq, with even less reason (there's no Oil in the Falklands, in spite of some recent announcements). And let's not forget who sold the North Sea Oil at a bargain-basement price, too! Mebbe Britain wouldn't be shivering in increasing fear if Maggot Hatcher had said "OK, this is gonna be given out sparingly, so we can have many generations enjoying it's benefits".

Yep, let's mutiply the number of female leaders world-wide, like Margaret Thatcher and we'll all end up in ever-worsening conflicts over even slighter excuses than the men. Bring about the collapse even sooner.

Woohoo, let's hear it for old Go-To-War-With-The Slightest-Reason-Blood-And-Guts Maggie! Now there's an example of stability and foresight for us all to copy.

[The_Virginian]

A male or female leaderwill have no effect on PO IMHO.

The more dominant in both sexes seem to crave POWER, and lady leaders in history have had to be MORE RUTHLESS than men.

Untill feminists find a way to change human nature, we will continue to struggle for dominace...it is the nature of MAN.