[Graeme]

Power Decarbonization Cost Rises 22% to $44 Trillion, IEA Says

The cost of cutting carbon emissions from power generation enough to restrict global warming to safe levels is rising because growing coal use outweighs the progress in renewables, the International Energy Agency said.

Investments of $44 trillion through 2050 are needed to decarbonize the energy sector, the Paris-based agency said today in an e-mailed report, up 22 percent from the figure it gave two years ago. The spending would ensure the average temperature rise since the industrial revolution is limited to the 2-degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) target world leaders have endorsed.

The cost of containing global warming is growing because of the “bleak” progress made in reducing emissions, the IEA said. The agency previously estimated the decarbonization cost was $36 trillion, and today it said “the longer we wait, the more expensive it becomes to transform our energy system.”

bloomberg

[efarmer]

Dearbonization has not been done to scale and perfected as of yet.
It is a variety of prinicples and experiments and theories.
So how is IEA able to bid the cost of this?

[Graeme]

This report is not yet available for public inspection. The cost will be spread out to 2050 so that means so far it is about $1 trillion per year or just over 1% of global GDP. At this stage, not excessive amounts but pressure is growing to start shifting energy expenditure away from ff to cleaner techs as mentioned in the article.

However, I have found a related free executive summary IEA report that is relevant: Energy Technoology Perspectives 2014, which you and other interested readers might like to read. What I found interesting is that global population and economic growth can be decoupled from energy demand. The IEA is saying that in order to keep global temperatures below 2DS, oil demand must fall by at least 30% (page 3).

ETP 2014’s 2DS confirms that global population and economic growth can be decoupled from energy demand, even for oil. Extending recent trends to 2050 in the 6DS, global energy demand grows by 70% and emissions grow by more than 60% against 2011 levels. Under the same projections for population and gross domestic product, radical action in the 2DS dramatically improves energy efficiency to limit increases in demand by just over 25% while emissions are cut by more than 50%. One of the most notable differences between the two scenarios is this: in the 6DS, oil remains the most important primary energy carrier with demand increasing by 45%, while the policy and technology choices made under the 2DS deliver a 30% reduction in oil demand.

Note that global investment in renewable energy in 2012 was $244 billion.

[Serial_Worrier]

Where will this $44 trillion magically come from? Pink unicorns?

[Graeme]

Have you any idea how humanity can respond to this challenge?

Some of the answers can be found in the "investment" link above (see chapter 10, page 76). I would welcome other suggestions though.

[americandream]

Have you any idea how humanity can respond to this challenge?

Some of the answers can be found in the "investment" link above (see chapter 10, page 76). I would welcome other suggestions though.

What challenge precisely?

[Graeme]

There's an annual shortfall of about $700 billion dollars to finance renewable energy growth.

Here is one possible source. And here is another. Page 72 here.

[Graeme]

The Energy Technologies Perspective 2014 report I referred to above IS the one that was reported by Bloomberg in the op.

IEA: Decarbonising the economy will save $71 trillion by 2050

Replacing fossil fuels with renewables as the world’s primary source of energy will not only save the planet from dangerous levels of warming – it will also save the global economy US$ 71trillion by 2050.

This is the finding of a report, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014, released today by the International Energy Agency, which looks at the direction of the energy sector over the next 40 years.

The changes needed to keep the world within 2C of warming— a widely agreed target in efforts to tackle climate change – will benefit the global economy, confirms the report, although a “coordinated policy approach” will be required to unlock these savings.

“The USD 44 trillion additional investment needed to decarbonise the energy system in line with the 2DS [2C scenario] by 2050 is more than offset by over USD 115 trillion in fuel savings – resulting in net savings of USD 71 trillion,” its says.

The findings support those who say that it is possible to decouple economic growth from emissions—something the EU has strongly advocated as it has increased its wealth while at the same time remaining on track to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2020. In China, meanwhile, emissions have rocketed in order to sustain economic growth of around 10% a year.

rtcc

[Graeme]

Here's another article on this story with more info (I don't have access to entire report):

GLOBAL ECONOMY COULD SAVE US$71 TRILLION WITH CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT, RENEWABLES SECTOR ALREADY SUPPORTS 6.5 MILLION JOBS

The IEA’s 2014 edition of its annual Energy Technology Perspectives, (ETP 2014) report, examines trends in the energy sector and progress towards decarbonization. The report notes that that there has been a significant rise in global electricity demand, however there is also a clear need for greater system cohesion.

A key chapter of the overall ETP 2014 is the annual progress report which has found that emerging economies have played a crucial role in the growth of clean energy technology. These countries have helped to accelerate the global clean energy revolution, with their increased investment compensating for “slowing or more volatile renewable power growth in Europe and the United States”, the IEA notes.

In addition to evaluating low carbon progress over the past 12 months, the ETP 2014 focuses on three distinct warming scenarios of 2, 4 and 6 degree Celsius, to illustrate how the global energy system and electricity production could evolve between now and 2050.


To limit global warming to 2C - which is internationally recognized as the necessary cap – electricity would have to overtake oil products to become the main energy carrier. Since the 1970s, electricity’s overall share of total energy demand has increased from 9% to over 17%, but to curtail the rise in temperatures in line with the 2C objective, approximately 65% of electricity would need to come from renewable energy by 2050.

The IEA believes that natural gas can help to mitigate further warming in the short term, but is keen to stress that it is a “transitional fuel”. Unless combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), natural gas is not a low carbon solution, the research body attest.

theclimategroup

[Graeme]

Trillions at stake as Green Climate Fund board meet in Korea

Trillions of dollars aimed at boosting the global green economy will be at stake when the UN’s Climate Fund (GCF) board gather in Songdo, South Korea on Sunday.

The goal of the planned four-day meeting is to ensure the swift and smooth launch of the fund, and allow it to start boosting low carbon initiatives in the developing world.

The GCF is seen as a critical element of a proposed UN climate change deal, set to be signed off in 2015, with the potential to radically shift the green investment landscape.

But fears are growing that if the board fails to agree on six main agenda items next week, the fund may stay in stasis, and developed countries expected to be major donors could walk away.

rtcc