Probabilistic versus Deterministic?

by **rockdoc123** » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 14:21:11

Just wondering if anyone has had a go at trying a probablistic approach to depletion modeling for a production profile? Saudi Arabia might be an interesting case given the amount of uncertainty we have with respect to reserves etc. The end result rather than being expressed in terms of an either/or set of answers could be expressed in terms of probability (eg: Saudi Arabia has a 10% chance of X years of reserve life, a 50% chance of Y years of reserve life and a 90% chance of Z years of reserve life).

If someone would post a production profile they have used for Saudi with the assumptions regarding daily production, decline rate etc. I would be willing to have a go running a range of variable through CrystalBall.

by **pup55** » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 15:36:15

You are on.

Model 1 assumes OOIP of the original 1975 estimate of 235gb, and peaks in about 2009
Model 2 assumes OOIP of 435 gb and peaks in 2031.

Model 1:

Code: Select all: Peak 1 Peak 2 n 0.02 0.13244183 qinf 35.00 200.00 t(1/2) 37 69.54987228 k 0.2 0.065579576 235.00

Model 2:

Code: Select all: Peak 1 Peak 2 n 0.02 0.13244183 qinf 35.00 400.00 t(1/2) 37 85.70408458 k 0.2 0.054676091 435.00

Code: Select all: Model 1 Model 2 Actual 1940 0.11 1941 0.11 0.16 0.12 1942 0.12 0.17 0.13 1943 0.13 0.18 0.15 1944 0.14 0.19 0.16 1945 0.15 0.20 0.17 1946 0.16 0.22 0.19 1947 0.17 0.23 0.20 1948 0.19 0.25 0.22 1949 0.20 0.26 0.24 1950 0.22 0.28 0.26 1951 0.24 0.30 0.29 1952 0.26 0.32 0.31 1953 0.28 0.35 0.34 1954 0.31 0.37 0.37 1955 0.33 0.40 0.40 1956 0.37 0.43 0.43 1957 0.40 0.47 0.47 1958 0.44 0.51 0.51 1959 0.49 0.56 0.56 1960 0.55 0.61 0.61 1961 0.61 0.68 0.68 1962 0.68 0.75 0.74 1963 0.76 0.83 0.79 1964 0.85 0.92 0.84 1965 0.96 1.03 0.81 1966 1.09 1.15 0.95 1967 1.23 1.29 1.03 1968 1.39 1.46 1.12 1969 1.58 1.64 1.19 1970 1.79 1.84 1.41 1971 2.02 2.07 1.76 1972 2.27 2.32 2.22 1973 2.54 2.58 2.81 1974 2.81 2.85 3.15 1975 3.08 3.11 2.63 1976 3.32 3.35 3.20 1977 3.52 3.54 3.44 1978 3.66 3.67 3.12 1979 3.70 3.71 3.59 1980 3.64 3.64 3.75 1981 3.47 3.46 3.74 1982 3.21 3.19 2.54 1983 2.89 2.86 1.81 1984 2.57 2.52 1.65 1985 2.29 2.24 1.31 1986 2.10 2.04 1.90 1987 2.02 1.94 1.68 1988 2.02 1.93 2.09 1989 2.08 1.98 2.06 1990 2.17 2.06 2.59 1991 2.28 2.16 3.22 1992 2.39 2.26 3.32 1993 2.51 2.37 3.27 1994 2.63 2.49 3.32 1995 2.75 2.60 3.33 1996 2.87 2.73 3.38 1997 3.00 2.85 3.46 1998 3.13 2.99 3.48 1999 3.25 3.12 3.25 2000 3.38 3.26 3.47 2001 3.50 3.41 3.38 2002 3.63 3.55 3.27 2003 3.75 3.71 3.73 2004 3.86 3.86 3.86 2005 3.97 4.02 2006 4.08 4.19 2007 4.17 4.35 2008 4.26 4.52 2009 4.34 4.70 2010 4.40 4.87 2011 4.46 5.04 2012 4.50 5.22 2013 4.52 5.40 2014 4.53 5.57 2015 4.52 5.75 2016 4.49 5.92 2017 4.44 6.09 2018 4.38 6.26 2019 4.29 6.42 2020 4.19 6.57 2021 4.07 6.72 2022 3.93 6.86 2023 3.78 6.99 2024 3.61 7.11 2025 3.43 7.22 2026 3.23 7.32 2027 3.03 7.40 2028 2.82 7.46 2029 2.61 7.51 2030 2.40 7.54 2031 2.19 7.55 2032 1.98 7.54 2033 1.78 7.51 2034 1.58 7.46 2035 1.40 7.39 2036 1.22 7.29 2037 1.06 7.18 2038 0.92 7.04 2039 0.78 6.88 2040 0.66 6.70 2041 0.56 6.50 2042 0.46 6.28 2043 0.38 6.05 2044 0.31 5.80 2045 0.25 5.53 2046 0.20 5.26 2047 0.16 4.98 2048 0.13 4.69 2049 0.10 4.39 2050 0.08 4.10 2051 0.06 3.80 2052 0.04 3.51 2053 0.03 3.22 2054 0.02 2.94 2055 0.02 2.67 2056 0.01 2.41 2057 0.01 2.17 2058 0.01 1.93 2059 0.01 1.72 2060 0.00 1.51

by **rockdoc123** » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 16:23:20

Hey pup mucho gracias for that. Will have a go at it over the next few days between some other things which are much less interesting that I have to do.

by **pup55** » Thu 30 Jun 2005, 10:32:20

Here's a third model, for your viewing pleasure. It assumes the "matt simmons" scenario, which is Saudi has damaged their fields, and can only count on a total of 190 gb OOIP

The peak is 2007, and the decline is swift.

Code: Select all: Peak 1 Peak 2 Sum n 0.02 0.13244183 qinf 30.00 160.00 190.00 t(1/2) 37 63.48589 k 0.2 0.071742449

Code: Select all: Model 1 Model 2 Model3 Actual 1940 0.11 1941 0.11 0.16 0.10 0.12 1942 0.12 0.17 0.11 0.13 1943 0.13 0.18 0.12 0.15 1944 0.14 0.19 0.13 0.16 1945 0.15 0.20 0.14 0.17 1946 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.19 1947 0.17 0.23 0.16 0.20 1948 0.19 0.25 0.17 0.22 1949 0.20 0.26 0.19 0.24 1950 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.26 1951 0.24 0.30 0.22 0.29 1952 0.26 0.32 0.24 0.31 1953 0.28 0.35 0.26 0.34 1954 0.31 0.37 0.29 0.37 1955 0.33 0.40 0.32 0.40 1956 0.37 0.43 0.35 0.43 1957 0.40 0.47 0.38 0.47 1958 0.44 0.51 0.42 0.51 1959 0.49 0.56 0.47 0.56 1960 0.55 0.61 0.52 0.61 1961 0.61 0.68 0.58 0.68 1962 0.68 0.75 0.64 0.74 1963 0.76 0.83 0.72 0.79 1964 0.85 0.92 0.81 0.84 1965 0.96 1.03 0.91 0.81 1966 1.09 1.15 1.02 0.95 1967 1.23 1.29 1.16 1.03 1968 1.39 1.46 1.31 1.12 1969 1.58 1.64 1.48 1.19 1970 1.79 1.84 1.67 1.41 1971 2.02 2.07 1.87 1.76 1972 2.27 2.32 2.10 2.22 1973 2.54 2.58 2.34 2.81 1974 2.81 2.85 2.59 3.15 1975 3.08 3.11 2.84 2.63 1976 3.32 3.35 3.06 3.20 1977 3.52 3.54 3.26 3.44 1978 3.66 3.67 3.39 3.12 1979 3.70 3.71 3.45 3.59 1980 3.64 3.64 3.42 3.75 1981 3.47 3.46 3.29 3.74 1982 3.21 3.19 3.09 2.54 1983 2.89 2.86 2.84 1.81 1984 2.57 2.52 2.59 1.65 1985 2.29 2.24 2.37 1.31 1986 2.10 2.04 2.24 1.90 1987 2.02 1.94 2.19 1.68 1988 2.02 1.93 2.21 2.09 1989 2.08 1.98 2.29 2.06 1990 2.17 2.06 2.39 2.59 1991 2.28 2.16 2.51 3.22 1992 2.39 2.26 2.63 3.32 1993 2.51 2.37 2.75 3.27 1994 2.63 2.49 2.87 3.32 1995 2.75 2.60 2.99 3.33 1996 2.87 2.73 3.11 3.38 1997 3.00 2.85 3.23 3.46 1998 3.13 2.99 3.34 3.48 1999 3.25 3.12 3.45 3.25 2000 3.38 3.26 3.55 3.47 2001 3.50 3.41 3.64 3.38 2002 3.63 3.55 3.73 3.27 2003 3.75 3.71 3.80 3.73 2004 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 2005 3.97 4.02 3.91 2006 4.08 4.19 3.94 2007 4.17 4.35 3.96 2008 4.26 4.52 3.96 2009 4.34 4.70 3.94 2010 4.40 4.87 3.90 2011 4.46 5.04 3.84 2012 4.50 5.22 3.76 2013 4.52 5.40 3.67 2014 4.53 5.57 3.55 2015 4.52 5.75 3.42 2016 4.49 5.92 3.26 2017 4.44 6.09 3.10 2018 4.38 6.26 2.92 2019 4.29 6.42 2.73 2020 4.19 6.57 2.53 2021 4.07 6.72 2.33 2022 3.93 6.86 2.13 2023 3.78 6.99 1.92 2024 3.61 7.11 1.72 2025 3.43 7.22 1.53 2026 3.23 7.32 1.35 2027 3.03 7.40 1.17 2028 2.82 7.46 1.01 2029 2.61 7.51 0.86 2030 2.40 7.54 0.73 2031 2.19 7.55 0.61 2032 1.98 7.54 0.51 2033 1.78 7.51 0.41 2034 1.58 7.46 0.33 2035 1.40 7.39 0.27 2036 1.22 7.29 0.21 2037 1.06 7.18 0.17 2038 0.92 7.04 0.13 2039 0.78 6.88 0.10 2040 0.66 6.70 0.07 2041 0.56 6.50 0.06 2042 0.46 6.28 0.04 2043 0.38 6.05 0.03 2044 0.31 5.80 0.02 2045 0.25 5.53 0.02 2046 0.20 5.26 0.01 2047 0.16 4.98 0.01 2048 0.13 4.69 0.01 2049 0.10 4.39 0.00 2050 0.08 4.10 0.00 2051 0.06 3.80 0.00 2052 0.04 3.51 0.00 2053 0.03 3.22 0.00 2054 0.02 2.94 0.00 2055 0.02 2.67 0.00 2056 0.01 2.41 0.00 2057 0.01 2.17 0.00 2058 0.01 1.93 0.00 2059 0.01 1.72 0.00 2060 0.00 1.51 0.00

Probabilistic versus Deterministic?

Probabilistic versus Deterministic?

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