[dukey]

related to oil ..
how fast is UK production of gas decreasing ?
and where does uk expect to get new gas from if its not going to come from the north sea.

[Doly]

how fast is UK production of gas decreasing ?

A very good question. Seems fairly fast to me, but I can't find decent figures.

and where does uk expect to get new gas from if its not going to come from the north sea.

From other countries. There is plenty of gas in the Middle East and also some in Russia. But transport of gas is tricky, which means that gas will certainly become more expensive.

And of course, there is also to consider when is world peak gas going to happen. According to Campbell, around 2012.

[Permanently_Baffled]

The UK will deplete to 60% self sufficiency by 2010 and only 30% self sufficiency by 2020.

The shortfall will come primarily from LNG (Qatar, Malaysia etc) and by pipeline from Norway , the Netherlands and eventually Russia (gulps ).

We need to go nuclear, after all, what is more secure? gas from the middle east and russia? or uranium from Australia, Canada and the US?

PB

[Taskforce_Unity]

Sorry dude forget this netherlands stuff.... our gas has peaked lonnnngggg ago and its going to decline faster soon.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Sorry dude forget this netherlands stuff.... our gas has peaked lonnnngggg ago and its going to decline faster soon.

I think it was only planned to be a tiny amount anyways.... Over a third of the shortfall in UK gas is from the Qatar LNG project through Milford Haven. This could go up more by 2010 as phase III of their LNG project completes. The rest will come from the north sea (30% until 2020) , Norway, Malaysia , Algeria etc etc.

Price is gonna skyrocket though ....

PB

[dukey]

can anyone put numbers to this
i cant find any

[Permanently_Baffled]

Off the top of me head:

Current consumption 95bcm
Current production 103bcm

2010 Consumption 100bcm
2010 Production 60bcm
2010 imports 40bcm

2020 Consumptiom none as PO caused nuclear war and we are all dead
2020(optimistic) Consumption 105bcm
2020 Production 30bcm
2020 Imports 75bcm

Hope this helps.

PB

Hope this helps!

[stu]

I'm so glad someone decided to raise this becuase I have just started research on this topic.

I've started here so I can figure out reserves and production rates.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html

According to OGJ, the UK held an estimated 20.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves in 2005, a 6 percent decline from the previous year.

The UK produced 4.0 Tcf of natural gas in 2003 according to DTI, the same as the previous year, but a decrease from the peak of 4.2 Tcf in 2000. The country is the fourth-largest producer of natural gas in the world, behind Russia, the United States, and Canada.

Interestingly there are 4 pipelines that come from the North Sea to terminals in the UK. Two go to Scotland, One to Teeside, and another to Bacton in Norfolk.

There are four main pipeline systems in the UK that carry natural gas from offshore platforms to coastal landing terminals. First, the Shearwater-Elgin Line (SEAL), operated by Total, transports gas from the Shearwater-Elgin area to the landing terminal at Bacton, England; according to DTI, the 290-mile, 34-inch pipeline carried 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2003. Second, ExxonMobil operates the 200-mile, 30-inch Scottish Area Gas Evacuation (SAGE), which transports associated natural gas from UKGS fields to the landing terminal at St. Fergus, Scotland; according to DTI, SAGE carried 1.5 Bcf/d in 2003. Third, the 250-mile, 36-inch Central Area Transmission System (CATS), operated by BP, links fields in the Graben area of the UKCS to Teeside; 1.4 Bcf/d of associated and non-associated gas flowed through CATS in 2003, according to DTI. Finally, Shell operates the Far North Liquids and Gas System (FLAGS) linking associated gas deposits in the Brent oil system with St. Fergus; in 2003, DTI reported that the 280-mile, 36-inch FLAGS transported 760 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) of associated gas. Once brought onshore, the responsibility for transporting natural gas throughout the country belongs to NGT. The company operates over 4,200 miles of transmission lines, transporting 3 Tcf of natural gas per year

Bacton is also the site for an international pipeline that runs to Zeebrugge in Belgium. It can either import or export gas.

http://www.interconnector.com/PhysicalOps/Bacton.htm

I'm also aware that there are plans to build an LNG terminal in Kent.

[linlithgowoil]

i think natural gas is more of a problem to the UK than oil is. mainly because millions of houses have gas central heating, and pretty much all new houses i know of always use gas heating. my house uses gas heating.

what on earth is going to happen when i turn on the heating one day and the pilot light goes out because there is no gas in the pipeline?

no idea. the only good thing for me is that i rent my house from a government body - if we need a new coal boiler, and we will, theyll have to provide it. in the meantime, we'd be very cold and have no hot water!

[dukey]

i think if/when gas runs out it will have a double affect. If a lot of power plants are gas fired then there will be a serious electricity shortage. And when gas runs out people will want to cook etc on electricity, thereby probably increasing the demand for electricity a lot.

[stu]

These are the estimated projections of Natural Gas Production according to the DTI.

Billion Cubic Metres
2005 85 - 100
2006 85 - 100
2007 85 - 100
2008 75 - 90
2009 65 - 80
2010 55 - 70

The projection for gas production relates to UKCS production available for sale. Gas production is expected to be broadly flat between 2005 and 2007 before falling from 2008 onwards. The timing and extent of the decline remains uncertain and is subject to a range of factors, including investment decisions and success in exploration.

Production Projections

[clv101]

The Future of UK Gas Supplies, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology:
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/POSTpn230.pdf

The biggest problem with this analysis is that they seem to think that building a pipe capable of 16.5bcm a year means that 16.5bcm a year will be available to us. I think it is extremely naive to believe we can solve our gas problem by building a pipeline to mainland Europe. Why over the next decade when energy supplies are going to be generally tighter everywhere do we think that we can successfully export our demand somewhere else.

The other scary point is this one:

Storage
The UK currently has a total gas storage capacity of 3.3bcm, equivalent to 14 days’ supply at average winter gas demand rates.

This contrasts with many European countries whose gas markets developed with import dependency and which have large strategic storage capacities, of up to 80 days’ on average compared to 13 days for the UK.

[stu]

Can someone confirm this for me?

According to the new BP report, daily natural gas production for 2004 in the UK was 9.3 bcf/d.

Link 'Gas Production – bcf'!A1

x that by 365 and you get a rounded up figure of 3.4 Tcf.

According to the EIA website the UK produced 4.0 Tcf in 2003.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html

This means that production has dropped by 1/6 in the space of a year.

Yikes.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Can someone confirm this for me?

According to the new BP report, daily natural gas production for 2004 in the UK was 9.3 bcf/d.

'Gas Production – bcf'!A1

x that by 365 and you get a rounded up figure of 3.4 Tcf.

According to the EIA website the UK produced 4.0 Tcf in 2003.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html

This means that production has dropped by 1/6 in the space of a year.

Yikes.

Yep when those gas fields decline they do it big style!

Oh well, who wants to live forever anyway.....*gulps*

PB

[clv101]

Can someone confirm this for me?
This means that production has dropped by 1/6 in the space of a year.

Sounds about right, apparently oil fell 17% and gas fell 13.5% over the last year.

[stu]

UK seeks Russian gas transit deal during EU presidency

The UK government during its EU presidency will seek to overcome differences with Russia on key outstanding issues that have prevented a Transit Protocol for gas supplies from being concluded, Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks has revealed.

"As part of our EU presidency union, the UK will work closely with all relevant parties to try to conclude the Transit Protocol negotiations, although success remains dependent on the EU and Russia being able to resolve their differences," Wicks said

[stu]

Britain wants Russia to become its main natural gas supplier

U.K. Trade and Investment, a British government organization, hopes that Russia will become the main supplier of natural gas to the U.K., Chief Executive Sir Stephen Brown told an oil and gas conference in Moscow on Tuesday.

[clv101]

While we're talking about the UK gas situation it's worth sparing a though for the poor Irish. They are more dependent on gas than the UK with no nuclear and get most of their gas from the UK! If the UK's in trouble gas with gas supplies, the Irish are in even worse shape.

I had dinner with Julian Darley last week and I agree with him that gas is every bit as serious as oil yet no one's talking about it. For the UK I think gas depletion is more important than oil.

[stu]

I've been trying to estimate what the situation is going to be like in 2010.

However working out who to believe is giving the most accurate figure for natural gas depletion rates is annoying. The EIA website quotes the DTI as saying that in 2003 the UK produced 4 tcf. However the BP report for 2003 says that gas production was at 10 bcf/d. Obviously this makes a total of 3.65 tcf for the year. This is why the BP report says that natural gas depletion was only 6.7% last year. Compare this to the reports that say the decline was 13% last year and this begins to look really annoying.

But it's all part of depletion modelling I guess.

Anyway I used a depletion rate of 11% and came to a figure of just under 2 tcf for 2010. Though I feel this to be slightly optimistic.

If consumption rates grow at the same rate then consumption will be around 3.6 tcf/y.

Overall I estimate a shortfall of between 1.8-2.2 tcf/y by the year 2010.

Anyone else have any figures. Maybe I'm being too optimistic/pessimistic.

[pup55]

For the UK it looks like you are correct.

I don't follow gas too much. Globally, the wild card is Russia, I think.
they have 22% of the production, and only 15% of the consumption, so they are going to be keeping Europe warm.

Also, the other wild card is discoveries: there seem to be more gas discoveries than oil discoveries, although I have not tracked this carefully.

North America looks to be close to depletion, but consumption was nearly flat between '03 and '04.