[dohboi]

Study predicts imminent, irreversible planetary collapse

Using scientific theories, toy ecosystem modeling and paleontological evidence as a crystal ball, 21 scientists, including one from Simon Fraser University, predict we’re on a much worse collision course with Mother Nature than currently thought.

In Approaching a state-shift in Earth’s biosphere, a paper just published in Nature, the authors, whose expertise spans a multitude of disciplines, suggest our planet’s ecosystems are careering towards an imminent, irreversible collapse.

Earth’s accelerating loss of biodiversity, its climate's increasingly extreme fluctuations, its ecosystems’ growing connectedness and its radically changing total energy budget are precursors to reaching a planetary state threshold or tipping point.

Hurricane now over the north pole

And in case you missed this tidbit:

CC beyond dangerous

Well worth watching the whole thing, but not for the faint of heart.

[vision-master]

It's possible the Earth's Axis shifted 30 degrees sometime during the last ice age (12,000 years ago)?

'The Revelation of the Pyramids'

[dissident]

Study predicts imminent, irreversible planetary collapse

Using scientific theories, toy ecosystem modeling and paleontological evidence as a crystal ball, 21 scientists, including one from Simon Fraser University, predict we’re on a much worse collision course with Mother Nature than currently thought.

In Approaching a state-shift in Earth’s biosphere, a paper just published in Nature, the authors, whose expertise spans a multitude of disciplines, suggest our planet’s ecosystems are careering towards an imminent, irreversible collapse.

Earth’s accelerating loss of biodiversity, its climate's increasingly extreme fluctuations, its ecosystems’ growing connectedness and its radically changing total energy budget are precursors to reaching a planetary state threshold or tipping point.

I'll buy their arguments about biosphere collapse. It is likely very sensitive to the current climate and given that we are changing the system faster than adaptation can respond the results will be bad for most life on the planet. In another post here it was shown that the rate of CO2 released today vs. the Eocene thermal maximum is about 10 times greater per year. I think we will actually facilitate the worst case scenario, namely that the oceans will become net sources of CO2 by 2100. Then it is out of our hands and it will be irrelevant if we stop pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. This is the runaway warming we should be worried about if we care about the existence of the human species. But that is too much to ask from the deciders, who act as if they don't care about the survival chances of their own children.

Hurricane now over the north pole

This is just plain silly. Hurricanes and cyclones are driven by convection. Every low pressure system is not a relative of hurricanes. There is simply not enough surface ocean heat in the Arctic to drive hurricanes. You will also note that we do not get hurricanes forming in middle latitudes. The Coriolis effect is important too for the dynamics of hurricanes.

[vision-master]

Maybe we have amnesia about our past bc the human race was decimated some 10/ 12 thousand years ago by a great flood and civilization had to start over? What would cause this?

[dinopello]

Study predicts imminent, irreversible planetary collapse

“Society globally has to collectively decide that we need to drastically lower our population very quickly. More of us need to move to optimal areas at higher density and let parts of the planet recover. Folks like us have to be forced to be materially poorer, at least in the short term. We also need to invest a lot more in creating technologies to produce and distribute food without eating up more land and wild species. It’s a very tall order.”

I nominate for the understatement of the current interglacial age.

[Lore]

Maybe we have amnesia about our past bc the human race was decimated some 10/ 12 thousand years ago by a great flood and civilization had to start over? What would cause this?

Only the Atlantians would know for sure, although, Noah had a different take on the flood.

[Lore]

Study predicts imminent, irreversible planetary collapse

“Society globally has to collectively decide that we need to drastically lower our population very quickly. More of us need to move to optimal areas at higher density and let parts of the planet recover. Folks like us have to be forced to be materially poorer, at least in the short term. We also need to invest a lot more in creating technologies to produce and distribute food without eating up more land and wild species. It’s a very tall order.”

I nominate for the understatement of the current interglacial age.

I'll take that order and super size it! Of course such radical changes will only occur to the world's population when there are very few of us left with no hope of those changes making much if any difference for the next few hundred thousand years.

[Ferretlover]

I see. Then, Hell really Will be freezing over?

[vision-master]

Only the Atlantians would know for sure, although, Noah had a different take on the flood.

So does the the scientific community.

The last glacial period is sometimes colloquially referred to as the "last ice age", though this use is incorrect because an ice age is a longer period of cold temperature in which ice sheets cover large parts of the Earth, such as Antarctica. Glacials, on the other hand, refer to colder phases within an ice age that separate interglacials. Thus, the end of the last glacial period is not the end of the last ice age. The end of the last glacial period was about 12,500 years ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_glacial_period


See the big warm up

[dohboi]

Since, according to the International Energy Agency, an additional six degrees C is pretty well locked in for the coming decades, we will soon be completely off that graph into literally uncharted territory.

Really, we are already there with barely a one degree rise so far (particularly if you limit yourself to the most relevant period--since complex global civilization began--it is global civ that will have to try (and fail) to adapt to this monster at first).

And, yes, what to call the great storm now over the Arctic is tricky. Hurricane is used for storms of this size and with these lows in the center in the Atlantic; cyclone or typhoon for the Pacific.

But there is no set tradition for what to call these things at the top of the globe, and, as pointed out, it has different dynamics and wind speeds. This is bigger that what is usually called an Arctic Low.

People at neven's site seem to be settling on his term--Great Arctic Cyclone (and "GAC"! is pretty much what a lot of people say when they see this thing, so perhaps it's fitting).

[ohanian]

Oh my god! This must be one of those Lovelockian Horrors.

Writing in the British newspaper The Independent in January 2006, Lovelock argued that, as a result of global warming, "billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable" by the end of the 21st century.[26] He has been quoted in The Guardian that 80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD, and this climate change will last 100,000 years. According to James Lovelock, by 2040, the world population of more than six billion will have been culled by floods, drought and famine. Indeed "[t]he people of Southern Europe, as well as South-East Asia, will be fighting their way into countries such as Canada, Australia and Britain".

* * *


Lovelock refined his style of predictions into his own mythos that involved a set of natural, pre-human, and climatic elements.

Themes of Lovelockian horrors

* Anti-anthropocentrism, misanthropy in general. Lovelock's works tend not to focus on characterization of humans, in line with his view of humanity's insignificant place in the universe, and the general Modernist trend of literature at the time of his writings.

* Preoccupation with scientific explanations. The scientific features of Lovelockian predictions tend to involve transparent substances, such as carbon-dioxide, as opposed to standard modern tropes such as money, sex, or celebrities.

* Antiquarian writing style. Even when dealing with latest propaganda, Lovelock tended to use anachronisms as well as old-fashioned words when dealing with such things. For example, he used the term "Global Warming" rather than the modern word, "Climate Change" and often spelled "may" as "will" and "potential" as "imminent"

* Detachment. Lovelockian supporters (both in original writings and in more modern followers) tend to be isolated individuals, usually with an academic or scholarly bent.

* Helplessness and hopelessness. Although Lovelockian supporters may occasionally deal a "setback" to malignant political forces, their victories are temporary, and they usually pay a price for it. Otherwise, supporters often find themselves completely unable to simply run away, instead driven by some other force to their desperate end.

* Unanswered questions. Characters in Lovelockian camp rarely if ever fully understand what is happening to them, and often go insane if they try.

* Sanity's fragility and vulnerability. Characters in many of Lovelockian camp are unable to mentally cope with the extraordinary and almost unreasonable truths they learn or hear. The strain of trying to cope, as Lovelock often illustrates, is too impossible to bear and insanity takes hold.

[dohboi]

Great! Can we have some more unsupported and unfounded sweeping claims?

[Newfie]

My take is that this study is narrowly focused on biological and ecological factors. It ignores financial collapse, resource depletion, political collapse, etc.

It says, if nothing else happens first we have no more than 100 years on the earth as we know it.

It sets the BEST CASE we can expect. Other events could get us first.

Cheers.

[Ferretlover]

And, after these posts, dear readers, we are back to our normal doomerosity! Get the lawn furniture and skis out of the bunker, circle the wagons, and re-evaluate your bugout/sit tight plans!

[dohboi]

Nicely put, FL.

Can I post a good question that dor posted at the neven site here without getting this thread locked down? (Or move this to that other thread, if you're ready to unlock it yet.)

Dorlomin asked:

If there has been a lot of churn would we be expecting some enhanced bottom melt for a few days afterwards or is this just 'wait and see'?

This seems like a very good and important question to me. Worthy of more discussion than the "Everything is wait and see" response he got from neven, true though that may sentiment may be.

[Pops]

Come on Doh, you chose the headline of the article instead of the title of the study "Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere" precisely because it was sensational didn't you? What do you expect?

--
Actually Newfie it prescribes financial & political collapse LOL

“Society globally has to collectively decide that we need to drastically lower our population very quickly. More of us need to move to optimal areas at higher density and let parts of the planet recover. Folks like us have to be forced to be materially poorer, at least in the short term. We also need to invest a lot more in creating technologies to produce and distribute food without eating up more land and wild species. It’s a very tall order.”

Sensational stories aren't going to sway the main opponents of such initiatives because
1) They can afford to pay for A/C
2) They couldn't care less about Snail Darters
3) Their myths say they are immortal


Really, I'm not usually the popcorn sort but if "move to optimal areas at higher density and let parts of the planet recover" is the solution then we might as well just crank the AC and throw some Darters on the barbie.

[dohboi]

Hey, pops, it's all about eyeballs

This site isn't getting much traffic recently, so anything that helps get some clicks here...

But really, we are long past the point of 'politically realistic' solutions.

We are already almost certainly at the beginning of the kinds of catastrophic global disasters early climate talk negotiators said they were trying to avoid. Not too long ago we perhaps still had the options of doing politically unthinkable things on a global scale, or face unthinkable global disasters that will keep getting worse. I think we still need to do politically unthinkable things just on the off chance that some unknown unknown (Jesus??!!) may come in and save our sorry @$$es in spite of ourselves if we stop digging ourselves deeper. But I can't see any rational way to expect anything other than pretty near total disaster pretty much any way you want to describe that no matter what we do at this point. I'd be happy to be persuaded otherwise, but all I generally get is the kind of handwaving and dismissal so common when these things come up.

As this guy says, we've already gone well beyond dangerous:

http://www.slideshare.net/DFID/professor-kevin-anderson-climate-change-going-beyond-dangerous

[Pops]

Hey, pops, it's all about eyeballs

It's OK, I've written some whoppers in my time, LOL

[Whitefang]

I did get that bug out bag ready......100 kg gear to be towed on cycle and trailer. BC or bust, Sweden a second choice.
Not such a bad idea to get things in order, maybe humanity will only loose 10% harvest this year which might still be manegeable, 30% means a wipe out and power down, panic/riots.
If we get trough this year, it will be the next. Not something that can work for another 5 years.
This is the day after tomorrow.

If that ice goes down the drain this fall, we have one or two years of peace left to prepare for the worst.
I do wish we had more time, all of us, all of life on earth.
Got my eyes on blackwater lake, BC as a basecamp before heading North into the land of the canou....Dean river looks great.
I am bored with this life and indulgence, ready for what is next come hell and high water.
Better fight and die into the wild than city collapse with cannibalism.

[Ferretlover]

It's OK, I've written some whoppers in my time, LOL

You sure have!! *giggle*

Better fight and die into the wild than city collapse with cannibalism.

Especially since in my entire cookbook collection (maybe three-four hundred). I don't have one single recipe for humans! (BUT, let's not get started on THAT topic!)
And, the other thread was unlocked on the 4th.