[Tanada]

http://www.aspo-usa.org/conference/2011 ... bowski.pdf

Somehow I missed this from last November and I have not seen anyone else posting about it so here it is.

[MD]

A nice graphic, but hard to follow if you're not familiar with the topic.

I suggest studying the very last graph until you grasp its significance.

[Pops]

Thanks Tanada

Skrebowski is a smart guy, his chart from Nov 5: "High oil prices now needed to balance supply and demand - Again", looks like mine from September 5
LOL!

Back around 2003 or 4 the Megaprojects Report forecasted trouble starting in 2007 and was what I based my plans on. He seems to be forecasting peak in 2015 now.

Couldn't find the original report, it is no longer on ODAC and I can't find a reprint from Petroleum Review, here's an article, http://www.commondreams.org/news2004/0128-11.htm

[dorlomin]

Unfortunately the wikipedia page has not been updated since 2010.

[dolanbaker]

This page was last modified on 23 January 2012 at 11:03.

ISTR that someone said that the data is frequently updated, but the page format isn't.

[dorlomin]

This page was last modified on 23 January 2012 at 11:03.

ISTR that someone said that the data is frequently updated, but the page format isn't.

Yes it seems the PERL script has not been run though

I get OPEC 2012 1275
and 1000 for non OPEC so a slight change of down 200 bpd to the one in the totals.

I also get 1070 for 2013 OPEC and 1575 for non OPEC so a total of 90 bpd higher.
So if we assume a depletion of 3% on 75 million barrels a day we'd need 2.25bpd per anum to replace that depletion. Just about squeeking it.
But if the depletion is 6% we can be expecting to see falling numbers, unless some of the new production capacity Saudi has claimed to have is coming onstream.

[kiwichick]

and depletion applies to more fields each month