The study to be carried out by Ricardo Strategic Consulting and Kevin J. Lindemer LLC will consider, among other things, the effects of new technologies on both the supply of and the demand for oil, the emphasis increasingly placed upon energy security, and consumption patterns driven by both usage profiles and emerging demographic changes in key markets such as China.
Although they are extremely diverse, it is unlikely that any of these factors will diminish in their influence on the energy market within the 10-20 year time horizon of the study. In oil, as in other commodities, demand responses to higher prices and to policy initiatives are typically asymmetric, Ricardo notes; many of the driving forces that are now beginning to act against future oil demand growth will not reverse, and others will not fully reverse even if oil prices should fall back.
In short, while the continuation of world economic growth will certainly translate into an increasing demand for energy, the world is likely to see significant changes in the way in which that energy is produced and delivered, with a reducing dependency on oil a key, and perhaps surprising, feature of this energy transition.
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