[Texas_T]

I have read up quite a bit on the depletion rates of the largest oil fields and the impact on future rates of extraction of conventional crude as it relates to peak oil, and it all makes sense.

My question relates to some countries with large proven reserves of conventional crude, but where the current rates of production are lower than they could be due to lack of capital investment. In other words, the countries have large fields that are relatively untapped so still potentially on the "up" side of the production slope not the "down" side due to depletion.

My impression (and I may be mistaken) is that the above applies to Iraq, Iran, possibly Russia, and possibly Venezuela.

Just wondering whether I am all wet on this, or whether these reserves have been taken into account in depletion modeling.

It would seem to me that if I am correct, then as peak oil constraints materialize the quickest way to add supply would be capital investment in these countries. Given the proper economic incentives, this could happen relatively quickly.

Curious to get input from those who know...

[Xenophobe]

I have read up quite a bit on the depletion rates of the largest oil fields and the impact on future rates of extraction of conventional crude as it relates to peak oil, and it all makes sense.

Extraction rates make sense, peak oil doesn't.

My question relates to some countries with large proven reserves of conventional crude, but where the current rates of production are lower than they could be due to lack of capital investment. In other words, the countries have large fields that are relatively untapped so still potentially on the "up" side of the production slope not the "down" side due to depletion.

Don't ask about multiple peaks. The zealots will call you names for noticing this type of factual information.

Just wondering whether I am all wet on this, or whether these reserves have been taken into account in depletion modeling.

Usually they are just ignored. No one likes to admit that production reversals are quite common, because they completely dynamite the entire peak bell shaped curve concept. So, no, you aren't all wet, but you won't earn any appreciation for pointing out factually information which hurts the mythology built up by the true believers.

It would seem to me that if I am correct, then as peak oil constraints materialize the quickest way to add supply would be capital investment in these countries. Given the proper economic incentives, this could happen relatively quickly.

Curious to get input from those who know...

You are quite right. Don't expect to be appreciated for it though, and if your posts mysteriously disappear...well...that happens quite often with posters who notice the same things you just have....

[sparky]

.@ Texas-T
Your point is valid ,there are oil producing bassins which are under-used
Iraq is ramping up after the two rounds of auctions for exploitation rights
Iran is underproducing due to politics and an embargo
Russia still has good potential for new discoveries while Venezuela hasn't yet touched the super heavy stuff for mainline production

The increased investments are sadly a nescessity when the stuff run out
it would be more rationnal to prepare for maximum recovery from the start of expoitation , but usually there is an irresistible urge to get the most money quickly
to repay the exploration , construction phase .
the Saudis have rigged Gawhar with a full network of horizontal wells to suck gently everything they can , and the field has not yet given sign of severe depletion
costs also have increased ,with the techincal difficulties of getting the stuff from hard to reach places , the IEA has warned that investment in the tens of billions will be needed to keep the production at the present level
due to the underinvestment of the late 90ies , there will be a supply crunch for the coming years ,
is it The Peak ??!!??? ....time will tell , but it certainly should come to pass this generation , possibly this decade

[Keith_McClary]

completely dynamite the entire peak bell shaped curve concept.

Way back 5 years ago there was an exponentially increasing for the foreseeable future curve concept.
The proponents of that have changed their tune and/or their names.

[Xenophobe]

completely dynamite the entire peak bell shaped curve concept.

Way back 5 years ago there was an exponentially increasing for the foreseeable future curve concept.
The proponents of that have changed their tune and/or their names.

Yep. TOD has pretty much given up trying to model anything since they called peak in 2008. If Stuart ends up being right, it should be worth a good laugh over there.

[Pops]

I don't "know" much but I'll point out the obvious, no one else does either.

Models largely ignore human nature and are only guesses based on political- and/or profit-influenced reserve numbers (that mean less than nothing) disguised with cool graphics and lots of impressive copy.

The places you mention perhaps haven't been tapped to the maximum extent possible but I wonder if a 500% increase in oil price the last few years hasn't shook them loose, what price will it take and if that price is high enough, will it matter?

[TheDude]

Saudi Arabia also has Manifa, which was mothballed upon discovery, Khurais, which was recently rolled out with a massive overall which will ostensibly increase its production tenfold, and the other 3 sections of Ghawar which weren't much exploited in the past, but which they are tapping into now. Their production targets are public and any model worth its salt has a KSA high forecast in it, to reflect this potential. Same is true of the other countries listed; we can then see if they are paying dividends in boosted net exports ipso facto, as is the case now with all of the KSA fields listed except Manifa, which comes online in two years.

Saudi rig count has been decreasing since 2008, which doesn't suggest panic on their behalf, or perhaps it's resignation, or perhaps they've gotten what they wanted, or it isn't economic to drill up the place with the current "low" prices. Take your pick. Another curious wrinkle is that if all these megaprojects performed as advertised it would mask a decline in Ghawar, as illustrated in Peter Wells's ASPO presentation a few years ago. Also world production could go into decline with KSA maintaining; sneaky peak oil. There is a lot of decline to overcome, after all. And much of what's come online in the last few years is courtesy of these vintage fields and the Extreme Makeovers done on them.

Russian gains in production last 10 years have largely been courtesy of secondary recovery.

Don't ask about multiple peaks. The zealots will call you names for noticing this type of factual information.

In the case of the world itself one absolute peak will do the job.

[dsula]

Don't ask about multiple peaks. The zealots will call you names for noticing this type of factual information.

did you ever notice that the day has 24 hours, and production per hour is most likely different in each one of them, multiple peaks/day. Or an hour has 3600 seconds, each one having a different production rate resulting on hundreds of peaks per hour.
Your stupid multiple peak blurp gets old.
Here, go, read and learn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-pass_filter

[vision-master]

You sure like taht green house, eh.

[Xenophobe]

Don't ask about multiple peaks. The zealots will call you names for noticing this type of factual information.

did you ever notice that the day has 24 hours, and production per hour is most likely different in each one of them, multiple peaks/day. Or an hour has 3600 seconds, each one having a different production rate resulting on hundreds of peaks per hour.
Your stupid multiple peak blurp gets old.
Here, go, read and learn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-pass_filter

Please....there is this guy over at TOD who is always confusing electronic circuitry with oilfield stuff and it's just plain silly.

In 1983, the world had peaked. The chicken little brigades were in full song. No mathematical games required, just pure doom.

Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. DOOMED I say!

[sparky]

.
As far as multiple peak forget it , there can only be one peak .. on the yearly scale
the monthly , weekly and instant are of little relevance
Hubbert model is that when the decline set in ,half of the stuff is gone
It's a model , and a good one but that's not quite how it work ,
disturbance in price or supply can depress the peak or delay it
the real issue is
after the record extraction will there be a declining plateau or a symmetrical decrease
that is debatable like forever
one thing to keep in mind is that more and more investment are needed to extract stuff which used to be there for the taking
the down slope of the curve is a very costly oil , the more money is spend the softer the decline
and we are not talking chicken feed millions here ,

P.S. @ Pstarr it's nice to read about Lewis Fry Richardson ,
I learned about him for his work on war ,pretty heady stuff he postulate that homicide is a scaled
progression , the more intense are the rarest , like earthquakes
10^0 is one murder , 10^1 is ten dead , WW1 was 10^6 WW2 got to 10^7
We are about due for a 10^8 intensity , that's a butcher bill in the hundred of millions casualties

but don't worry , it's a model not a prediction
.