There’s plenty to ponder in the newly released summary of the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 by the Department of Energy. While all such forecasts are implicitly uncertain, this one helps clarify where to focus efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions; reinforces the importance of resolving questions about how to safely expand, while not stopping, extraction of vast domestic reserves of natural gas; and powerfully challenges proponents of accelerated deployment of today’s menu of renewable energy technologies or nuclear power plants to lay out a credible strategy for supplanting coal.
Natural gas, as some analysts have long predicted, is destined to play a growing role in helping supply reliable energy while allowing a shift toward lower-carbon fuels. The vast deposits in shale identified around the lower 48 states have substantially shifted Energy Information Administration projections of the fuel mix in this country:
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