Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.
SeaGypsy wrote:Ambient ground temperature in the tropics hovers currently around 32c at sea level, at 45 degrees latitude AGT is around 10c at sea level. To reach "unsurvivable" 35c AGT has to rise by about 3c at tropical sea level, but by 25c at 45 degrees lat. I haven't seen any modelling suggesting the latter is even possible.
Ibon wrote:9 degrees latitude north of the equator at 2000m the average early morning temperature year round is 14c, 58f and the hottest time of day rarely peaks above 26c, 80f
Ecological havoc may come but mammalian extinction...highly doubtful... My grand daughter might be planting mangoes and bananas instead of coffee at 2000m in the future.
More to the point, there is nothing significant we will do as a species but bare the consequences of overshoot. THose consequences are the solution, all the other heroic attempts are futile.
That is actually what most humans are in denial about, the absolute futility of correcting overshoot... and the acceptance that 6 billion plus dying, either drawn out in a few generations or punctuated by short term events is the solution. I have long resigned myself to that truth. It is resignation from recognizing the check mate nature of overshoot at the scale we are at today.
A few billion humans ago we lost the opportunity to correct. Accept it.
asg70 wrote: is no "we".
asg70 wrote:
Even supposedly woke climate change believers like Plantagenet are busy joyriding around the world in jets, simultanously playing the blame game while failing to take any personal responsibility. Tragedy of the commons personified.
Ibon wrote:It's even worse . We have bird watchers, herpetologists, botanists, entomologists, general eco-tourists, researchers, all coming to our site from all over the world, this year as far as Russia, flying across continents to enjoy the pristine wildlife and nature that they so much feel connected to.
So many philosophers down through the ages have noted that the world could be a paradise if you could just find a way to get human beings to stop acting like human beings
We do have the means to build a sustainable population base (legal birth control and abortion) and a steady state solar infrastructure
mmasters wrote:IMO the best solution, if you think you're smart enough that is, is to get into the top 1%, you might be able to make a difference in that position, everything else is just jerking off in the wind.
SeaGypsy wrote:mmasters wrote:IMO the best solution, if you think you're smart enough that is, is to get into the top 1%, you might be able to make a difference in that position, everything else is just jerking off in the wind.
Except for a few issues- 1/ the 1% aren't actually in control, nobody is, it's not like that. 2/ the 1% are mostly there by luck of birth, exceedingly few on 'intelligence' (there's no evidence the 1% are any more intelligent than any other quintile). 3/ as mentioned previously, there's no way to undo human nature, most people still want to breed & will do so as long as doing so is possible.
Cid_Yama wrote:We need adequate technology to create self-sustaining environments within which some (and you know who it will be) might continue to survive under the conditions of a hostile planet.
mmasters wrote:SeaGypsy wrote:mmasters wrote:IMO the best solution, if you think you're smart enough that is, is to get into the top 1%, you might be able to make a difference in that position, everything else is just jerking off in the wind.
Except for a few issues- 1/ the 1% aren't actually in control, nobody is, it's not like that. 2/ the 1% are mostly there by luck of birth, exceedingly few on 'intelligence' (there's no evidence the 1% are any more intelligent than any other quintile). 3/ as mentioned previously, there's no way to undo human nature, most people still want to breed & will do so as long as doing so is possible.
Well, if you make it big your word is taken more seriously then some random guy on the internet. I agree on the human nature part though, the species is like a virus. But it is how it is. I don't accept that mother nature is all we have. I think that mother nature was engineered to support intelligent life. I see it as we're here to be tested. If you pass the test you move on to something greater than hellhole earth (although it's not too bad right now but I agree it will get worse). I don't particularly want to come back here so I've decided to make something of myself and do my best.
SeaGypsy wrote:mmasters wrote:SeaGypsy wrote:mmasters wrote:IMO the best solution, if you think you're smart enough that is, is to get into the top 1%, you might be able to make a difference in that position, everything else is just jerking off in the wind.
Except for a few issues- 1/ the 1% aren't actually in control, nobody is, it's not like that. 2/ the 1% are mostly there by luck of birth, exceedingly few on 'intelligence' (there's no evidence the 1% are any more intelligent than any other quintile). 3/ as mentioned previously, there's no way to undo human nature, most people still want to breed & will do so as long as doing so is possible.
Well, if you make it big your word is taken more seriously then some random guy on the internet. I agree on the human nature part though, the species is like a virus. But it is how it is. I don't accept that mother nature is all we have. I think that mother nature was engineered to support intelligent life. I see it as we're here to be tested. If you pass the test you move on to something greater than hellhole earth (although it's not too bad right now but I agree it will get worse). I don't particularly want to come back here so I've decided to make something of myself and do my best.
Magical thinking, both points.
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