[onlooker]

I have been vexed by this simple yet profound bind humanity is in. We are intelligent people on this site, thus we by nature like to think their are solutions to any problem. Yet is it time to admit that humanity has no solution whatsoever to the predicament it finds itself in. I know many of the regular posters have years of this site and are familiar with much of the main arguments related to peak oil and global warming. So I will skip all the background info. The thrust of what I wish to say is that because fossil fuels are so pivotal to all the services of modern civilization and because modern civilization is what allows so many people to simultaneously inhabit this planet, a large drop off in the availability or use of said fossil fuels would probably condemn many people to premature death and/or disintegration of the social fabric of their societies. That is why this site was started in response to the menacing nature of Peak oil. Now, we also know that we are now in dangerous territory regarding climate change and that by continuing to spew CO2 into the atmosphere we are condemning future generations to a hardly any type of viable or worthwhile existence and perhaps something close to the extinction of mankind. So this is the Catch 22, damned if we do, damned if we do not. I submit that their is not any reasonable, logical or effective means to deal with this predicament. We as Ibon has stated will have to as best as possible adapt to the dual consequences of both peak oil and global warming. Basically I see no solution. What do others think?

[AgentR11]

I would like to think that the more intelligent any particular human is, the more likely they are to understand that very few problems have solutions. Instead, most bad situations must be avoided before they begin, or the most you can hope to do is mitigate impacts, and that only, if you try really really hard.

Global warming, and a commitment to very high fossil carbon consumption are already long past the "beginning" stage. An intelligent response is to first accept what *IS* and not what one might *WISH IT TO BE*. One might wish humans would reduce their consumption of fossil carbon (both energy and as concrete), but there is no indication any such thing is happening or will happen tomorrow. What is true, is that humans are accelerating the amount of carbon they put in the atmosphere; just as they have done for more than a century. That is what *IS*.

All the screaming in the world of scientists against CO2 emissions can not alter the behavior of that Chinese lower middle class guy who wants to buy his first airconditioner and dangle it on the outside of his apartment. And the Chinese authorities are not going to help either; they have huge excesses of metals and concrete production that need to find buyers.. and 300-500 million people who are potential customers for their first air conditioning units.

So, accepting what *IS*, we can see that IPCC "BAU" trajectory is not only likely, its conservative. Because reality is not BAU going into the future; reality is BAU Amplfied. So what does BAU Amplified give us with regard to climate? Full industrial collapse, starvation, wars, more starvation, and die off. In our world, you do not get to say the words "human die off" without being labeled with a tinfoil hat, and either disregarded, or tossed in the loonie bin if you're too annoying. You can't say it without folks thinking you're some kinda of nihilist looking forward to the end of everything. So the discussion dies instead.

Thus, denial of reality floats right along with denial of climate change itself. Both together sealing the fate of humanity to the worst possible results from the worst possible configuration of future events.

So what does ultra doomer AgentR11 suggest then, for trying really really hard for mitigating impacts?

Acknowledge reality.
Accept that we will burn all available carbon.

then..as policy,

Do not ever rebuild or repair any city or facility that is inundated by storm water. All flood insurance is paid in buyout-terms only.

Favor GMO research and optimization of grain lines to produce in ever higher latitudes, and higher tolerance of late season high temps.

Do not expand any infrastructure towards a coastline; build rail, electric distribution, and large roads that disperse inland, making it easier for new construction to pick locations further inland, and thus drag city centers along with them away from the drowning coast.

Walk port facilities inland so that they are usable and useful as new portions of the river channel become deep enough to handle shipping. Anticipate the rise, and be ready for it.

Place appropriate use fees on water in areas that are arid or modeled to become arid. And by appropriate, I mean cripplingly high for any use in excess of maybe 1000gal/person/month at a residential location; and no affordable breakpoint for other sectors. If it can't grow in your yard with rainfall alone, it doesn't belong there. Tax the every loving snot out of groundwater withdrawal. If a "taking" exists, then write the check, and then later crank the tax up even higher to pay for the check. A good place to start on the fee would be about $25/1k gal. after an affordable allowance for a dwelling.

Enact AgentR11's carbon tax amendment as noted in several posts on po.com; because I'm awesome afterall.

Expand the army, but pull a lot of it back to internal garrison duty, and be prepared to lock down our borders tight against huge numbers of climate refugees. Legalize EVERYONE here at that time; permanent residence status, regular path to citizenship. We have a nice mix of races and cultures in the US as is; and the numbers are well within our carrying capacity, well into the bottleneck. Where we all go together as a multi-ethnic country, we can not go with 600 million+.; And yes, this means shooting people who try to forcefully cross the border. Maybe make auto-cannons do most of the killing so we don't have to feel bad, and the potential refugee won't make an assumption about compassion. This is survival at this point forward; there is no right to economic refugee status. You could even expand the army concept a bit to separate between folks that are happy enough to fight overseas, and those feel guarding a home border is more just and honorable. Both types of folks exist, intense and appropriate training can be provided suitable to each distinct role. Border would be some LEO-light, marksmanship, crowd control; as opposed to the more typical infantry training for overseas combatants.

That is how AgenR11's mitigation plan would begin.

[shortonoil]

"Basically I see no solution."

Basically we probably won't until we get there. Where ever "there" is? Things only come to pass the way you think they will in story books. Reality doesn't play by our perceptions, or our rules. It is only the naked apes that believe otherwise. Thinking otherwise was the flavor of thinking that got us into this mess to begin with.

[onlooker]

Thanks Agent a well thought out post that makes sense.

[Paulo1]

Great comment Agent R. I agree, wholeheartedly. I am dismayed that Climate Change is still scoffed at, especially in right wing circles. Many still believe terrorism is NA's greatest threat. I submit that with Climate Change, mass migrations will make ISIS and current Syrian migration loook like a walk in the park.

As I write this I am looking out the window on a very stormy day. I live on a river, tidal, 5 km from the beach. The river is very high right now, but it does rise another 15 feet at times. After that it spills out on the other side and floods the valley; never really getting much higher due to this horizontal movement. However, we do get cut off from leaving our immediate area due to the roads flooding and two bridge approaches that also flood. In twenty years, if I make it to 80, I expect it will be a regular occurance. Right now the conditions have to line up just right; big snow pack in fall, pineapple express for several days, a big snow melt with heavy rainfall, and high tides. It only happens in November. I have been stabilising my bank for the last ten years we have lived here by hauling shot rock and placing them just so. I might spring for a dump truck load of bigger stuff. We have what is called 'a hard bank' being filled with embedded stone, but the next property over has lost 15' in the last 30 years. Across the river from me they are losing bank like crazy, but it is all bush so it doesn't really impact anyone. I mention all this to convey that every stormy day is personal for us and full of possible consequences.

Even though this is not a good place for solar, Ghung has inspired me to buildup solar capability for emergency lighting. I have some rv LED dome lights that I install in our main rooms when we lose power. (Like yesterday). The kitchen will soon have an LED nder-cabinet light strip that I can run off a deep cycle batt, all charged up with a new solar system with controller. BC Hydro is renewable, and quite reliable so we will stick with that as long as we can, but back up systems are really important as we live in the boonies and do get stuck here.

So why do I mention all this? Well, I agree with you and am a bit afraid of the future. However, by making preps right now our family will not go down without some tools in place to help survive what may befall us. Certainly, change is baked in and it is coming sure as hell. But all we can do in our piddling way is cut back on our FF use, and get some preps inplace, step by step and one job at a time. It beats golf and air travel vacations.

[Hawkcreek]

I agree that we will continue with BAU until something truly impressive happens. Maybe if Los Angeles,
Ca, Washington, DC, and Miami, Fl were all wiped out in the same season by massive storms, that might start a real response to CC. (the Washington, DC part would be great if it happened first).
I live near Spokane, Wa, and last month we had some vigorous winds (gusts above 70 mph), from a storm system that no one thought would be very bad. It ended up with thousands of households without power for more than a week. I sat up on my hill in the country and didn't know any of this was a big deal. I did lose two trees, but neither got near my solar panels or buildings, and they just made good firewood.
I guess my point is that if you count on the local utilities to keep you comfortable, you are probably screwed sooner than you think. As the atmosphere is warmed, it will make wind. No place on earth is really safe from that. Even my solar panels will probably blow away some day. And it is kind of difficult to make an underground greenhouse.
I kind of think that these types of disruptions will get worse and worse, and may be the real factor that halts CC. No civilization - no greenhouse gases being emitted

[eugene]

I decided, long ago, there isn't a solution. I figure we passed the point of no return many decades ago. There is, and will be, countless "if we just do", this or that miracle solution that is just an idea or at the experimental stage and rants about how we must do zero carbon now. I agree with the damned if we do and damned if we don't so I just press on.

The percentage of people who see all this as a serious problem is very small. Reality only seems to hit when it hits me and hard. Prior to that we blame others, rant about the energy companies who are simply selling us what we demand and argue about it all. I keep in mind 25% of Americans are illiterate and another 20-25% functionally illiterate. Of the 50% that are questionably literate, most are frantically buying the latest whatever, buying a bigger house and chasing some figment of the American dream. My 50 yr old son in law just wants to have fun. My daughter is chasing a career. My neighbor is frantically, at 62, trying to accumulate enough to retire. He supports his 27 yr old son in the family business as he is incapable of holding a job anywhere else. I see a nation that is, and has been, hell bent on conquering the planet which means we are far more interested in killing, with god's approval of course, than we are in even feeding our own people. In my old eyes, same old shit.

In the whole scope of things, it doesn't matter at all if humans, or everything else for that matter, disappear. The universe will not even notice the demise of life on a tiny planet in some remote corner of it all.

[Plantagenet]

I think there are obvious solutions but our political leaders are too stupid and too craven to do what is necessary.

Obviously we have to get off fossil fuels and reduce CO2 emissions. But almost 200 national leaders are in Paris right now putting together a phony agreement that won't reduce global CO2 emission by even a molecule. IN fact the UN agreement actually ratifies continued GROWTH in CO2 emissions----who in their right mind would support that?

So what do we replace fossil fuel with? That is also obvious. We should be installing every solar cell and every windmill and every geothermal plant we can. And we should be installing nuclear energy as well. With nukes and other forms of alternative energy we could eliminate the need for fossil fuel entirely. But again, our political leaders are too craven to take the necessary steps and won't speak the necessary truths.

[Hawkcreek]

Planty, it appears you want to blame Obama for human population overshoot? Like Obama sneaked (snuck?) into your bedroom and forced you to copulate? It gets so very tiring to hear that same old lament from you, Planty

I didn't see Obama's name mentioned. I agree with Plant - our "leaders" are too craven to help the situation. Or greedy, or too owned by the elite, or something.
All flavors are the same when it comes to politics. Both sides suck, and only look out for corporations and the elite.

[Plantagenet]

Planty, it appears you want to blame Obama for human population overshoot?

I didn't say that. Are you toking up again?

.... Obama sneaked (snuck?) into your bedroom and forced you to copulate?.

Thats pretty dumb, even for you.

[dohboi]

Many good points here.

I'm not particularly worried about immigration. It is pretty easy to regulate ports, and there are limited numbers that can come up from Latin America, much fewer than if we were connected by land to Asia and Africa. And there is lots of land that could be distributed to willing and experienced farmer from further south.

But, yeah. At this point we're pretty well screwed no matter how well we manage to reduce our ff use (which we should still do as rapidly and massively as possible, but that doesn't really seem to be in the cards).

So I mostly plan to watch the world unravel and chat with your assholes about here on line. (Until that goes under.)

I think it is a bar minimum level of morality that one at least observe and not turn ones eyes away too much from the suffering one is causing others.

[kanon]

I have been vexed by this simple yet profound bind humanity is in. . . . The thrust of what I wish to say is that because fossil fuels are so pivotal to all the services of modern civilization and because modern civilization is what allows so many people to simultaneously inhabit this planet, a large drop off in the availability or use of said fossil fuels would probably condemn many people to premature death and/or disintegration of the social fabric of their societies. . . . Basically I see no solution. What do others think?

One thing that every person should do is vote for Green Party candidates. I know, of course, that this can do little or nothing on its own and the GP is a total unknown, but that is not the point. If you don't vote then you are giving consent by silence and if you do vote you cannot in good conscience support either the R or D parties. You will not get any better crap from the royalty until you ask.

The second thing is to reduce fossil fuel use as much as possible, including consumerism. We should realize that FF are truly pivotal only to the corporations and empire builders. To ordinary people all over the world, FF are a source of oppression and misery. To those few in the advanced or developed societies, FF are a pointless indulgence, a manipulation, or a type of prison. To every living thing, FF are a source of toxicity and a degraded environment. We are not served by FF, rather we serve those who use FF to attain power. Even in cases of so-called necessities, the need for FF is much less than current use and if FF were used as truly needed, we would not be having any of these problems.

We cannot think outside of our culture or social hierarchy, so I politely question your assertion that we are intelligent. The economic and social hierarchy is fueled by FF, so we cannot imagine life without FF, but I think that is our own flaw and in no way accurate. A different hierarchy that did not use FF would also produce things that were wonderful and absolutely essential. I also do not believe FF are required for so many to survive, because whatever the necessity of FF used to be, we have other means now. I believe farmers are driven off the land to promote FF consumption and corporate power rather than FF being essential to food production. I agree that we should be putting huge effort into PV and wind power (but not nuclear). However, it would be just as bad an error to try and maximize consumption with renewables as it was with FF. The reason deployment of renewable energy is so slow is because the status quo is defending itself. The corporations (basically the banking cartel and those they finance) basically stay in front of the herd with their "innovations" and FF based technologies and also inflict war wherever they can. I also do not agree that "humanity" is in a bind. It is fair to say the corporations and governments are in a bind, the elite royalty are in a bind, people higher up the pecking order are in a bind, but humanity is only somewhat more screwed than usual.

[onlooker]

Interesting critique of my initial post Kanon. Yes FF are relentlessly degrading the planet and not just via global warming but contamination as well. I would agree about your assertion that FF are not required for so many to survive but for one caveat. The world-wide food production and distribution system is in my opinion now wed irrevocably to fossil fuels. I will explain. Many countries ie. populations around the world are now not food self-sufficient. Thus they are importing food from other places, even within countries food is shipped to remote areas. All this transportation system runs pretty much with fossil fuels and we have no other replacements on the horizon. Second, places like India and China have already quite some time ago hitched unto reliance on FF for food production. Think about the extra nitrogen that fossil fuels have introduced into the food system for the mass of humanity. When that extra source of nitrogen is gone we cannot replace it easily or quickly for as many here know fossil fuels are so energy dense. Also, the lands/soils around the world are now severely denuded and can scarcely produce without this rich synthetic fertilizers and also pesticides both which are derived from FF. So while perhaps world-wide communities can adapt socially to the absence of fossil fuels, I do not see how we could continue to produce and distribute as much food without fossil fuels.

[kanon]

. . . I would agree about your assertion that FF are not required for so many to survive but for one caveat. The world-wide food production and distribution system is in my opinion now wed irrevocably to fossil fuels. I will explain. Many countries . . . are importing food from other places . . . this transportation system runs pretty much with fossil fuels . . . the . . . food system . . . can scarcely produce without this rich synthetic fertilizers and also pesticides both which are derived from FF. . . .

You make a good point. I do believe there will be dramatic famines and the chaos may make all other predictions rather pointless, but humanity has been through that before unless it goes nuclear. My thinking is that drought is one predicted effect of global warming which seems the most certain. Especially since we already see it happening. Drought often leads to famine and famine leads to social upheaval. I am fairly confident we will have a worldwide drought sufficient to cause a famine, and we might be in the beginning years right now. I think the famine could largely be averted, at least for people we favored. But the elites will not do that, despite a drought and famine being more than enough to cause their overthrow. So, the FF needed to grow the food causes the heat that kills the crops.

What to do comes back to having some means to provide the basics.

[careinke]

And it is kind of difficult to make an underground greenhouse.

Actually there are a lot of underground greenhouses, they are easy to build and not very costly. They are ideal for Eastern Washington climate. Do a search on "Underground Greenhouse" and you will see.

[dohboi]

Thanks, car. I would not have thought to even look for such a thing!

World-wide drought is not likely, since average global humidity increases about 7% with every degree C of warming, iirc. But certainly some places that support a lot of ag will suddenly start seeing a lot less rain, and others a lot more, more and more often coming in the form of ever more massive deluges--as we are seeing now in the UK.

And remember that flooding usually wipes out more ag every year than does drought.

There will be/are already severe impacts all over the globe, but much of the earliest and heaviest climate damage will occur in the tropics, where many of the poorest people in the world live.

[onlooker]

Not only that all this changing volatile weather will make farming that much more risky and difficult.

[onlooker]

Another stark pessimistic thought crosses my mind. Sorry I am in a down mood. In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, I would think we would need new infrastructure, relocations and of course re-building all within the context of either forceful reduction in energy or voluntary. That to put it mildly seems problematic.

[GHung]

@Paulo: Order some of these; great little LEDs that are 12VDC and put out an amazing amount of light per watt. I use the 17cm whites to light the green house:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/371244287422?_t ... EBIDX%3AIT



Self-adhesive and only a couple of bucks each. The whites are 6000K; may help you avoid SAD, and are good work lights as well. A mix of colours could make good grow/sprouting lights.