Pops, The bottom line is that we have to move away from fossil fuels asap otherwise we will not have a habitable planet to live on. What Gail has described is exactly what the fossil-fuel industry wants to hear. Lets keep us addicted to ff because there is nothing else. Well, she (and they) is (are) wrong. What she said is actually misleading and perhaps naive. I don't have access to all decisions being made about energy policy in business or government either. So I'm not sure that I can answer this question in one impromptu post but let me try.
Firstly, the 2004 fuel share of world total primary energy supply supply is closer to 14% if you include combustible renewables and waste (
figure 1), and the 2004 renewables in electricity production is about 18% (figure 5, page 5). You can be sure that since 2004, the proportion of renewables in primary energy supply and electricity production has risen. Of course, these proportions vary from country to country (Table 1).
Secondly, the future outlook for renewables is what Gail ignored. I posted this figure in the "Victory at hand for the climate movement" thread. I'll re-post it here in case you missed it. In theory, the world could reach 100% renewable electricity supply by
2020 because solar and wind installations are growing exponentially and the current installed global electric power is around 2 TW.
I have seen roadmaps for 100% renewable energy installation by 2050 by several groups including Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council, WWF and Stanford University. A lot of people know that switching to renewables is possible in a short time frame. This is what the
IEA said about renewable energy growth:
A steady increase in hydropower and the rapid expansion of wind and solar power has cemented the position of renewables as an indispensable part of the global energy mix; by 2035, renewables account for almost one-third of total electricity output. Solar grows more rapidly than any other renewable technology. Renewables become the world’s second-largest source of power generation by 2015 (roughly half that of coal) and, by 2035, they approach coal as the primary source of global electricity. Consumption of biomass (for power generation) and biofuels grows four-fold, with increasing volumes being traded internationally. Global bioenergy resources are more than sufficient to meet our projected biofuels and biomass supply without competing with food production, although the landuse implications have to be managed carefully. The rapid increase in renewable energy is underpinned by falling technology costs, rising fossil-fuel prices and carbon pricing, but mainly by continued subsidies: from $88 billion globally in 2011, they rise to nearly $240 billion in 2035. Subsidy measures to support new renewable energy projects need to be adjusted over time as capacity increases and as the costs of renewable technologies fall, to avoid excessive burdens on governments and consumers.
Incidently, the IEA also mention that energy efficiency will buy us time to make this energy transition.
There are difficulties which I can only touch on here. First the issue of energy storage. I have a thread devoted to this issue so it is clear to me that it is being addressed. Gail mentioned high electricity prices. The world could copy what is being
implemented in Germany now.
Minister Altmaier claims that rising electricity bills are the biggest barrier to the Energiewende because they undermine public approval. He aims to prevent future price increases by addressing the EEG Apportionment (EEG Umlage) that finances the feed-in tariff scheme. He therefore proposes the “Strompreisbremse” (electricity price emergency brake – this word has caught on surprisingly well in German media) to freeze the apportionment, claiming to thus prevent a 10% increases in electricity prices this fall.
The apportionment is a surcharge on the electricity price that (most) consumers pay to finance the FIT. The money collected from the apportionment is used to guarantee renewable energy producers a profitable price for 20 years — based on the costs of the particular renewable technology, regardless of the market price (this system is called Advanced Renewable Tariff). This Advanced Renewable Tariff system is the newest and most sophisticated version of FITs that incentivizes renewable energy deployment even at small scale. For example, in 2010, 51 percent of renewable energy capacity built under the FIT was owned by individuals and farmers, coining the term democratization of energy supply in Germany.
Finally, I just saw this morning an important report by the IMF who state that climate change can be fought be eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. I'll post this in a separate
thread.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.