[Graeme]

In The Future, The Only Jobs Left Will Be Green

In the future, the only jobs left will be green. Last year, the NY Times reported, “In the energy sector alone, the deployment of new technologies, like wind and solar power, has the potential to support 20 million jobs by 2030 and trillions of dollars in revenue, analysts estimate.”

Averting catastrophic climate change will generate far more jobs by 2050, as we must deploy more than 10,000 GW of clean energy (see here). Failing to avert catastrophic climate change will probably generate more jobs, especially post-2030, since we still have to make the transition off fossil fuels, but on top of that we will have to have to make probably 10 times as much investment in sea walls, levees, relocating people and cities, and the like (see Real adaptation is as politically tough as real mitigation, but much more expensive and not as effective in reducing future misery).

The inevitable transition to a low carbon, low-fossil-fuel, water- and resource-efficient economy is apparently lost on many in the media. We expect confusion and misinformation on this point from the right wing media (see Conservative Media Inanely Declare Solar Power ‘Doesn’t Work’). It is surprising, though, when even NPR runs the headline, “Is Obama’s Bet On Green Jobs Risky?”

In fact, the only “risky” move is failing to aggressively pursue clean energy, failing to quickly reduce dependence on petroleum before peak oil forces us too, and failing to embrace a sustainable economy before the global Ponzi scheme collapses.

thinkprogress

[Plantagenet]

... the deployment of new technologies, like wind and solar power, has the potential to support 20 million jobs by 2030 and trillions of dollars in revenue, analysts estimate.”

Did the analysts estimate that before or after the solar cell factories that Obama plowed hundreds of millions of dollars into over the last couple of years went bankrupt and fired all their workers?

[Graeme]

See news article by Robert Rapier on front page.

[Plantagenet]

I read the Robert Rapier article---I thought it was excellent.

Robert Rapier was scathing in his critique of the Obama plan to create "green jobs". He said Obama had a "comic book" (i.e. childish) view of the energy situation in the US, resulting in the disasterous and wrong-headed subsidies for green energy in the stimulus plan that have turned out to be a massive waste of money, culminating in the loss of all the "green jobs" at US solar cell factories that are now closing.

[Graeme]

I should have been more specific. Can I refer you to this quote?

Let’s first define what we are trying to accomplish. I am sure most people believe that there is value in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels — particularly imported fossil fuels — so most are probably willing to provide some level of government support to do so. But the current system often rewards companies before they deliver anything. We have to stop that. We need to place the prize at the end, not at the beginning. We need to reward companies that deliver, not those that promise to deliver. In many cases, companies simply squander this “free money” in ways that should not be tolerated. What we need to do is level the playing field for all companies and allow them to compete. Those that ultimately deliver will be the ones who collect the prize. That is the way business is supposed to work. That is the way great companies are built.

[Plantagenet]

That is an excellent quote. It summarizes Rapier's critique of Obama's failed policies. Obama wasted hundreds of millions of dollars by steering federal dollars to solar cell companies in silicon valley and Massachusetts that were politically connected to the democratic party, but had no viable market plans and went bankrupt as soon as BO turned off the money spigot.

That kind of foolishness by Obama actually has harmed the alternative energy movement. We'd be far better off letting the market choose which technology works best rather then having Obama and his cronies waste scarce federal dollars by steering the money to their big campaign donors, as happened in the case of Solyndra.

[Graeme]

I also wanted to point out that green industries are far from dead and they can benefit from the right government incentives.

[Plantagenet]

I also wanted to point out that green industries are far from dead and they can benefit from the right government incentives.

Of course.

Unfortunately, we are still stuck with the dopes in the Obama administration who wasted the last trillion dollars of government incentives on stupid ideas like the Solyndra Corporation.

[Graeme]

I don't accept that all money invested by US govt (DOE/DOA) for energy projects has been wasted. The example you gave may well be the case. I'm not in a position to find all the projects supported let alone assess the merits of all DOE/DOA investments. What I have found at short notice is this site, which lists the following programs. I did this by selecting "ALL Regions and States", "Grants/Incentive Rate Program/Loans", "Renewable", "Federal" and "All Industrial System Types".

Nationwide Programs

Biobased Products and Bioenergy Program
Loans are available to help rural industry generate electricity from biobased sources.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Biorefinery Assistance Loan Guarantee
Loans are available to help biorefineries conserve and use energy more effectively. Loan guarantees are available up to $250 million.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Business and Industry Guaranteed Loans
Loans of up to $10 million are available to rural industrial manufacturers to improve the economic and environmental climate in their communities.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Energy Efficiency Improvements Loan
Loans are available for the purchase of renewable energy generating systems by small rural businesses or agricultural producers.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Energy Efficiency Improvements Loan
Loans are available for the purchase of renewable energy generating systems by small rural businesses or agricultural producers.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Renewable Energy Systems and Energy Efficiency Improvements Program
This program provides grants and loans to small businesses in rural communities that are interested in making their buildings more energy efficient.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Rural Energy for America Program Guaranteed Loan Program (REAP LOAN)
The REAP Guaranteed Loan Program encourages the commercial financing of renewable energy (bioenergy, geothermal, hydrogen, solar, wind and hydro power) and energy efficiency projects. Under the program, project developers will work with local lenders, who in turn can apply to USDA Rural Development for a loan guarantee up to 85% of the loan amount.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

USDA Renewable Energy Systems and Energy Efficiency Improvements Program
This program provides grants and loans to small businesses in rural communities that are interested in making their buildings more energy efficient.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Loan Guarantee Program
DOE offers loans to projects that “avoid, reduce, or sequester air pollutants or anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.” Loans are available for biomass, hydrogen, wind, solar, hydropower, advanced fossil energy coal, carbon, electricity delivery and reliability, alternative fuel vehicles, pollution control equipment, and industrial energy efficiency projects.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Energy

U.S. Department of Energy State Energy Program
The State Energy Program (SEP) provides grants to states and directs funding to state energy offices from technology programs in DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. States use grants to address their energy priorities and program funding to adopt emerging renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Energy

UnSolicited EERE Proposals
Unsolicited proposals may be selected if they are novel and do not reflect a current solicitation or existing work.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of Energy

American Reinvestment and Recovery Act Tax Credits and Grants
Tax credits and grants are available from select state energy offices to help promote renewable energy generation and/or energy efficiency.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Partnerships
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems are an efficient, clean and reliable approach to generating power and thermal energy from a single fuel source. Incentives on CHP systems are available through the EPA.
Program Sponsor: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

[dohboi]

As far as wasting money goes, the billions a week we spend fighting wars for oil (in various guises) are the real horrendous waste. Everything else is chump change. If we spent even a reasonable fraction of that on insuring that all well used buildings were well insulated, biking and walking were made easy, then some on public transport and renewables, it wouldn't make much of a difference if a few of the projects didn't turn out as expected.

But to get to the very serious and very necessary reply to the main title of the thread, I think we can all agree that future jobs will in fact be a particular shade of green.

[Graeme]

Dohboi, Thanks for your post. At least here we agree!

Plantagenet, Here is an article which suggests that the failure of American solar is not due to government investment but Chinese competition. There are remedies suggested in the article.

China Has Won The Solar War - Now What?

Revenue and margins for solar module manufacturers have dropped due to falling European demand and pricing weakness due to overcapacity. An online article at Europe-solar.de provides vivid evidence that (1) solar module prices are dropping fast and (2) prices of modules sold by top tier companies (bankable) command selling price between 15% and 35% higher than modules from non-bankable solar manufacturers.

According to this thesis, there really isn’t an overcapacity of solar cells in the solar industry, just an overcapacity of “unbankable” and “low-cost bankable” vendors.

Suntech's thesis is branding and thus bankability will be the key differential among industry players. These top-tier solar manufacturers are able to secure financing in the multi-million dollar range because bankability should insulate higher tier capacity from pricing declines more than lower tier suppliers.

seekingalpha

[peeker01]

Ahhaa! The failure of American Solar........Can I quote you?

[peeker01]

Haven't heard anything about the failure of American Natural Gas......or Nuclear?

[peeker01]

Or Coal?????

[Graeme]

Peeker01, We're talking about green jobs. I doesn't matter if American natural gas, nuclear or coal fails.

[peeker01]

No, you are talking about solar power.....

[Graeme]

Peeker01, If you read the "seekingalpha" article, you will see what the American solar industry will do:

"The next wave of cost-per-watt reduction in the solar PV industry will be achieved through major changes in cell technology and manufacturing sophistication to simultaneously improve efficiency and factory output," said Mark Pinto, executive vice president and general manager of Applied Material's (AMAT) Energy and Environmental Solutions Group.

And one of the best electronic companies in the world could change the solar industry.

If Apple launched one of its gadgets with embedded solar cells, it could revolutionize the market for solar. Apple has been exploring how to use solar power to charge gadgets for some time, including looking into ways to embed solar cells in devices. But if Apple made the leap to an actual commercial launch, it could be a solar game changer.

thestreet

[dohboi]

That last is a good point. Calculators used to always come with little solar panels on them. Why don't they put them on all laptops and other small devices. Even if they don't totally keep them charged, it would probably extend time between charges cumulatively could add up to quite a few negawatts.

[peeker01]

Wrong. Calculators use virtually no power. This is illustrated by the lack of solar power
now days, as battery power is quite sufficient. Laptops use 10000 times more power than
a surface-mount solar panel could produce. Bad idea.

You don't see digital watches anymore either. Another bad idea.

[dohboi]

(Wow, that's some laptop you got there, feller.)