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The Damming of Gibralter

The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 30 May 2007, 20:04:34

Below dear reader you will find a startling proposal for one of the largest geo-engineering projects of all time, the damming of the Gibraltar straits to control the direction, volume, and make up of the water exchange between the Med Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The authors in dead earnest propose that this megaproject must be done to prevent the onset of the next ice age in 2090 due to global warming and the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.

Seems to me removing the Aswan high dam would be a hell of a lot easier, but what do I know?

Climate Control

If the Mediterranean Sea continues to increase in salinity, shifting climatic patterns throughout the world may cause high-latitude areas in Canada to glaciate within the next century. The Mediterranean is starved of freshwater by human activities: most of the annual flow of the Nile River is now used for irrigation and no longer enters the sea. The sea surface evaporation losses are also increasing as the surface warms due to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Consequently, the Mediterranean hydrologic deficit is steadily increasing. The deficit is the difference between the larger amount of water lost by evaporation and the smaller amount received from rainfall and river inputs. The difference is made up by a two-way exchange of water with the Atlantic at Gibraltar. Barring a significant change in regional atmospheric circulation, these two human modifications of the environment will cause the salinity of the Mediterranean to increase for some time as fossil fuels are consumed.

The higher salinity will lead to a larger volume of the Mediterranean outflow at Gibraltar, which will modify high-latitude oceanic-atmospheric circulation and, in effect, initiate new glaciation. This hypothesis arises from a recent study of climate conditions and inferred circulation changes that probably triggered the last glaciation [Johnson, 1997] . The hypothesis will be tested in coming decades. If it is validated by the onset of ice-sheet growth in Canada and cooling in northern Europe, a partial dam at the Strait of Gibraltar could be constructed to limit the outflow and reverse the climate deterioration, thus holding off the next ice age.



And
If all the Nile flow entered the Mediterranean, the hydrologic deficit would be approximately 31,000 m3 s-1, estimated from Mediterranean outflow and inflow volumes and salinities at Gibraltar [Bryden and Kinder, 1991; Price et al., 1993] , river discharges, and an assumed steady state. A larger hydrologic deficit due to the loss of Nile River discharge is the main difference between today and 120,000 years B.P. in the chain of factors in Figure 2.

Ninety percent of the 2700 m3 s-1 average Nile flow is now diverted for irrigation and lost by evaporation. Most of the diversion has been accomplished in modern times and has increased the Mediterranean hydrologic deficit by about 8%, with half of this increase due to the Aswan High Dam. This dam was completed in 1968 and is a major source of Egyptian power [Gasser and El-Gamal, 1994] . It impounds the annual Nile flood water from the monsoons in Lake Nasser for power production and irrigation, thus preventing the floods from reaching the Mediterranean. The planned additional diversion of 300 m3 s-1 from Lake Nasser at Abu Simbel will bring the deficit increase up to 9%. The mixing time for an ideally mixed Mediterranean Sea (that is, the time needed to attain 63% of a new higher steady-state salinity after an abrupt reduction in fresh water input) is about 100 years. Consequently, most of the effect on northern North Atlantic circulation caused by the 9% increase in the deficit will be realized by the end of the next century as the salinity rises and the Mediterranean outflow increases.

are the highlights of the calculated problem.

The solution is to
To minimize the eventual increase in Mediterranean salinity to a few parts per mil caused by the more restricted exchange with the Atlantic, the present counterflow entrainment of salt from the outflow into the inflow could be greatly reduced by confining the outflow to a narrow opening, possibly 1 km wide or less, with most of the inflow consisting of shallow water entering at a distance. A detailed hydrodynamic model of the flow field would be required to determine the width of the opening needed to maintain the specified flow restriction when the ultimate Mediterranean salinity and density is attained. Such a model is one of many research tasks needed in the planning of the dam.


Which will in theory
The cost of the dam would be minor compared to the benefits of a mild climate in northern Europe and Asia and the prevention of widespread new ice sheets in Canada. However, the cost and the magnitude of the task and the associated uncertainties would probably generate controversy that might delay a decision to build the dam until the threatened climate deterioration becomes a reality in Canada and Europe. Would the dam construction then be too late ? Probably not, because the redirection of warm North Atlantic Drift into the Nordic Seas would duplicate the strong meridional North Atlantic circulation of 8000 years ago, when the outflow was smaller, the Labrador Sea was cold, and deglaciation was rapidly removing the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, until the dam is completed and more warmer North Atlantic Drift water is again allowed to enter the Nordic Seas, cold climatic fluctuations in Europe are likely to become increasingly severe.

If a decision to build the dam is delayed, a more worrisome concern is the scarcity of petroleum supplies that will probably develop in the next century. This could lead to political or military conflicts that would increase the difficulty of organizing the broad international effort needed to carry out the project. The sooner the decision is made, the easier it will be to plan and complete the dam. The Aswan High Dam's effect on Mediterranean salinity will trigger glaciation much more quickly than would CO2 warming alone, thus providing a compelling motive to build the remedial dam, and quickly, while petroleum supplies are still plentiful and society is stable.



I still say removing Aswan would be a lot easier/cheaper, and if that is not an option diverting deep saline waters into the Quatarra Depression through a tunnel connected to a pipeline into the deep basin would act to help in three ways, it would restore humidity to air over the northern Sahara, it would generate hydroelectric power, and it would remove a good volume of the deep saline water they are so concerned about thereby restoring the saline balance of the deep basin area's of the Med Sea. Given that the Quatarra depression hydroelectric project would produce substantial electricity it would even ameliorate the loss of the Aswan high dam and could make its removal or at least reduction in the volume of Lake Nasser a more economic alternative for Egypt.
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Re: The Daming of Gibralter

Unread postby mlit » Thu 31 May 2007, 00:21:38

I wrote a paper in school a few years back on the thermo-haline circulation problem, don't remember what my conclusion was (probably just what the teacher wanted)

We'd have to build that dam now and hope thats enough to keep it from changing but add in the freshwater dumping in from Greenland melting?

Who knows what other effects building something that large would do. We usually think up great ideas only to find out our solution caused some other problem that was worse.
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Re: The Daming of Gibralter

Unread postby thylacine » Thu 31 May 2007, 02:34:31

This idea is similar to one that is mentioned in passing in Ken Deffeyes book Beyond Oil. The idea was that rather than inadvertently change the climate, why not do it on purpose. His idea was to drive a sea level canal through Panama - thereby allowing the salinity difference between the Pacific and Atlantic to equilibrate. The result hoped for was that the Earth's climate would return to similar to Miocene times: warmer at higher latitudes and more temperate at the tropics. Sounds great in theory, but as MLIT says do we really know enough about all the systems involved not to end up giving ourselves an even bigger problem?

Blowing up the Aswan high dam would only cost a few thousand dollars worth of high explosives. Mining and moving over a cubic km of rock to make a dam at Gibraltar would cost a lot more. This project should be filed with a lot of those other high-tech, big expenditure megaprojects that get touted from time to time eg. mining asteroids, helium from the moon, space-borne shade sails etc etc. Techo-bollocks that will never see the light of day IMO.
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Re: The Daming of Gibralter

Unread postby bobcousins » Sat 02 Jun 2007, 08:58:25

Tanada wrote:The authors in dead earnest propose that this megaproject must be done to prevent the onset of the next ice age in 2090 due to global warming and the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.


The author (singular) is R.G. Johnson, who has a pet theory about ice age formation, which only Johnson seems to find any scientific basis for.

The conventional explanation is that ice ages form when winter snowfall exceeds summer melting, thus allowing glaciers to build. Johnson seems to overestimate the importance of precipitation and ignores the impact of increases summer melting. If the snow melts during summer, it doesn't matter about increased winter snowfall.

The importance of the Milankovitch cycles is not just that solar insolation decreases, but that the ratio of summer/winter changes in the Northern hemisphere, where glaciers are able to form. When the northern winter is long and summer is short and cool, glaciers can build. When summer is long and winters short, glaciers melt. There is a feedback effect from reduced albedo of glaciers of course.

The upshot is that ice ages start only when the Milankovitch cycles if favourable, and only if climate is cool, and take thousands of years for glaciers to build. Melting when triggered is relatively rapid. At the moment only one of the Milankovitch components favours glacier formation, and global warming increases summer melting.

It's not possible to completely rule out the possibility that collapse of the THC leads to a much cooler Northern hemisphere, but the reduction in temperature is still not likely to allow glaciers to build.

However, the idea that an ice age "starts in 2090" is totally bogus, and anyone suggesting a new ice age is about to start should be treated with extreme skepticism.
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Re: The Daming of Gibralter

Unread postby Kylon » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 18:57:27

I think the daming of the Gibralter would be utterly retarded. However I do agree with Tanada that we should dig a canal to the Qatar depression.

That would create a tropic area around it, while providing power to the local region. It would also decrease the water level on the planet, helping to offset some of GW's water increase.
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Re: The Daming of Gibralter

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 07:11:00

Kylon wrote:I think the daming of the Gibralter would be utterly retarded. However I do agree with Tanada that we should dig a canal to the Qatar depression.

That would create a tropic area around it, while providing power to the local region. It would also decrease the water level on the planet, helping to offset some of GW's water increase.


While I appreciate your support I do not think the 200 cubic km or so of water that would be entrapped in the Quattar Depression lake would have much impact on the overall sea level of the Earth. It would provide the opertunity to reduce the deep water outflow into the Atlantic by the rate at which the depression is filled, you just have to use a long draw pipe to get your fill water from the bottom layer of the Med Sea. That water is already warmer and saltier which means it will produce more electricity (it has more mass) and it will evaporate slightly faster (it is warmer) allowing the penstocks to run at a higher power rating.
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Re: The Damming of Gibraltar

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 21:14:19

I was pondering the whole Quattra hydroelectric project again in light of the recent discussion of pumped pond storage.

It got me to wondering, how much will a siphon draw in terms of altitude? I know that a lot of the old potable water projects used pipes to move water through valleys so that the pressure on the feed side would be maintained as the water fell down the slope and was then forced back up the other side through a notch lower than the feed side.

What I was thinking was in terms of siphoning, why wouldn't this work for the Quattra hydro proposal? What I envision is a deep water siphon, as described before, bringing deep med water up into a feed pool just off shore which would be isolated from the surrounding waters by a sea wall. However, my new thought is, instead of digging a canal through the hills to reach the Quattra Depression, why not just put a pipe line going up the hills a ways, then through a short tunnel to avoid the highest portion, then down slope the other side all the way deep into the depression? Then use pump pressure to fill the entire pipe with the valve at the bottom closed and connect the pipe to the offshore pool. When you open the valve at the penstock end and let water flow through the turbines to produce electricity the water flowing out will create a partial pressure drop and draw new water into the seaside end from the pool.

I presume there is a practical limit to how high you can draw water this way without the pressure change exceeding the siphon effect. How high is that distance? I seem to have a half baked memory that it is only 32 feet which seems like it wouldn't be worth the effort but I am not certain and I couldn't find a reference for this with a quick Googleing. If it is that small of a rise they should just use the Chunnel boring machine and make a tunnel just below sea level.

No matter what method works I wish Libya would get their act in gear and build it already, their oil won't last much longer. Right now they could afford to build this and it would give them some long term security, later it will be too late.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 17 May 2015, 22:33:40

It has been pointed out that the link in the first post on the thread is no longer valid so I did a simple google search with the terms AGU+JOHNSON+GIBRALTAR+DAM and the first link leads to the abstract of the author in question,

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 0/abstract

If you go to the abstract there is a link on that page for the full report, links directly to the full report are blocked by a wall of some sort.

Sorry Members, it was the best I could do.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby dissident » Sun 17 May 2015, 22:58:54

The whole idea is nonsense since the THC will not be shut down by any perturbation in salinity that the Mediterranean Sea can produce. The saline waters out of the Med produce a gravity flow to the bottom of the Atlantic. This cannot interfere with the mass the deep current formation in the North Atlantic. All it does is merge with the abyssal current heading south.

The notion of a THC shutdown causing glaciation is patent nonsense. This is the silly misinterpretation of the Younger Dryas climate anomaly that totally ignores the background orbital configuration, CO2 levels and ice albedo. The THC did not cause the glaciation cycles, it was an insolation and CO2 feedback.

The only thing this scheme would produce is increased pollution levels in the Med due to reduced flushing and increased CO2 degassing from the surface. This scheme would actually amplify AGW.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 17 May 2015, 23:37:10

Ding dongs. Humans do fine in ice ages. Its part of our evolutionary heritage. Its the other thing... you know, the climate that the reptiles like, and we don't... that's the one folks need to think hard on...
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 May 2015, 08:29:34

Aside from the impractical nature of such a plan (the Straights are 7 miles wide and almost 3,000' at its deepest point) so far no one has mentioned who "owns" that area and what it would take to get their combined agreement to build a dam. Despite the fact, of course, that it physically couldn't be done. But it is good to see that there are some folks with enough spare times on their hands they can develop fantasy plans for unsolvable problems. LOL.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 18 May 2015, 08:51:37

Up there with KJ's space doughnuts.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 18 May 2015, 09:12:17

There is a video on sea level rise where various scientists opine that dike and damn building will be the biggest industry on the globe within a few decades as every area scrambles to protect what they can of their coastal cities and other vital low-lying areas.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby Lore » Mon 18 May 2015, 09:23:13

Sounds like a business until you add up the cost. They are spending 500 million right now to protect a few blocks of Miami. Most of which will be wasted as the sea level rise will soon exceed the prevention measures.

Sea rise threatens Florida coast, but there's no statewide plan to deal with it
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 May 2015, 09:45:09

dohboi - "...to protect what they can of their coastal cities and other vital low-lying areas." That plan has worked well for my home town, New Orleans, for decades. Except, of course, for when it didn't work. LOL. Or do like Texas has done along our upper Gulf Coast shoreline where, thanks to the subsidence that has been ongoing for millions of years, some roads now continue below the low tide level: just move the road barricades back every 10 years or so.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby Lore » Mon 18 May 2015, 09:51:20

Move the roads back, like to Kansas. :-D
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 May 2015, 09:59:04

Yep...just like all that ocean view property they'll have in Arizona after the BIG ONE in California. LOL.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 18 May 2015, 10:10:41

ROCKMAN wrote:Yep...just like all that ocean view property they'll have in Arizona after the BIG ONE in California. LOL.


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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 May 2015, 10:18:38

Yes: George Strait...one of the first to recognize the dangers of GHG. And a Texan, no less. LOL.
As I've said before most Texans don't deny climate change...they just don't give a crap.
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Re: The Damming of Gibralter

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 18 May 2015, 10:23:16

there is a considerable area of land surrounding the Mediterranean that would flood if sea levels rose significantly

the Nile delta for example

it may be worth the cost
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