[grabby]

Here is an important protocol if followed will prevent a major collapse of the economies of the world, hopefully. I would like to have the protocol on this web site in case the original source goes south, it is to good to loose.

read it, it is pretty good.


The most obvious objective is to cut consumption to match declining production. A protocol to so achieve is laid out below in draft form (as proposed at the 2003 and 2005 Pio Manzu Conferences in Rimini, Italy).

The Depletion Protocol

WHEREAS the passage of history has recorded an increasing pace of change, such that the demand for energy has grown rapidly in parallel with the world population over the past two hundred years since the Industrial Revolution.
WHEREAS the energy supply required by the population has come mainly from coal and petroleum, having been formed but rarely in the geological past, such resources being inevitably subject to depletion.
WHEREAS oil provides 90% of transport fuel, essential to trade, and plays a critical role in agriculture, needed to feed an expanding population.
WHEREAS oil is unevenly distributed on the Planet for well-understood geological reasons, with much being concentrated in five countries, bordering the Persian Gulf.
WHEREAS all the major productive provinces of the World have been identified with the help of advanced technology and growing geological knowledge, it being now evident that discovery reached a peak in the 1960s, despite technological progress, and a diligent search.
WHEREAS the past peak of discovery inevitably leads to a corresponding peak in production during the early years of the 21st Century, assuming no radical decline in demand.
WHEREAS the onset of the decline of this critical resource affects all aspects of modern life, such having grave political and geopolitical implications.
WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the new World environment of reduced energy supply, making early provisions to avoid the waste of energy, stimulate the entry of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining oil.
WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in a co-operative and equitable manner, such to address related climate change concerns, economic and financial stability and the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.

Now it is proposed that

1. A Convention of Nations shall be called to consider the issue with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
(a) to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that World oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
(b) to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
(c) to avoid destabilising financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
(d) to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
(e) to stimulate the development of alternative energies.

2. Such an Accord shall have the following outline provisions:
(a) No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce.
(b) Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate, deducting any indigenous production.

3. Detailed provisions shall cover the definition of the several categories of oil, exemptions and qualifications, and the scientific procedures for the estimation of Depletion Rate.

4. The signatory countries shall cooperate in providing information on their reserves, allowing full technical audit, such that the Depletion Rate may be accurately determined.

5. The signatory countries shall have the right to appeal their assessed Depletion Rate in the event of changed circumstances.

[pup55]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic3403.html

We did some dieoff modelling on this a couple of years ago when it was called the "Uppsala Protocol".

The net conclusion we came up with at the time (based on some assumptions about where the peak was, etc. etc.) was that it was pretty similar in effect to doing nothing for the first few years, but the population crash in the 2020-2050 time frame was a little steeper than the current path . The main benefit apears to have been that in the far out years, maybe the 2070 timeframe, there is a little more oil available than would have been if the current path was followed.

So if you believe in the crash/dieoff scenario, chances are this protocol would change the shape of the curve somewhat, but will not change the general outcome, namely, a lot of people are going to die. Unless, of course, we can decouple this link between oil consumption and standard of living.

Maybe I will unearth this and revisit it.

[pup55]

Here it is.

The "current path" is a simple model that says we hit the peak in 2005 and production declined at 2% for the first 10 years, then 3% thereafter.

The "rimini/uppsala" model assumes a pumping rate of 2.19% of reserves every year, which is what it was last year. The only thing that would change it would be a change in reserves and/or discoveries that radically changed the amount of oil available for pumping.

Anyway, sorry to be boring, but the point is, it does not amount to very much difference, except maybe being slightly more humane by

[strider3700]

Pup I've been following your modelling for awhile now and I've been wondering.

Are you a doomer?

I'm not questioning your modelling at all, It's just you probably know the numbers at this point as well as anyone.

[pilferage]

I was wondering the same thing (pup's doomerism), then I thought about the population curve a bit more, and it makes sense from what's imho a realistic viewpoint, based on two assumptions...
-Peak oil will hit 2nd and 3rd world countries the hardest because they're the poorest and can't afford/won't know how to transition to the likely nuclear baseload, with hydrogen/crude from tar sands (and whatever else requires notoriously high upkeep, gotta keep up that busywork;)) for transport.
So, the countries with the most population growth will have a similar (nearly inverse) rate of decline without cheap FF's to continue expansion and no substitute.
-The transition to larger sources of energy (fission) and wealthier civilizations will further decrease the fertility of 1st world nations. With more "luxuries" and a similar system of reproductive responsibility, people will be more inclined to put off or not consider childbirth.

Based on these assumptions we'll probably see a decrease in human population past a given point in the depletion curve. And an even larger gap in the distribution of wealth...