[Tuike]

I and other finns that use this forum can post news about finnish medias stories about peak oil in this thread.

There was today an article about oil in Helsingin Sanomat newspaper, titled: "Saudiminister: era of cheap oil is permanently over" (Saudiministeri: Halvan öljyn aika pysyvästi ohi)

It says that Saudi-Arabias goal is to keep oil price in 40-50 range. They have given up on 22-28$ objective in januarys meeting. A finnish economist say that 40$ oil allows economic growth, while over 50$ oil that keeps that price for months hampers economic growth. Opec ministers decided in their wendsdays meeting to increace oil production for half a milloin barrels a day. If oil prices still rise they raise production with another half a milloin barrels per day. In the end there was a statement that supply cannot keep up with demand.

[Tuike]

ETLA, the Research Institute of the Finnish economy, has predicted that the oil prices are expected to lower to 39$/bbl by december 2005 and to 37$/bbl by end of 2006. Their report was published today.

Finnish economists seem to be similiar to their colleagues in other countries. The fact that oil is a finite resource must irritate them because that would make their calculations more complex.

[OilsNotWell]

Hei Kaveri ja mieluinen jotta meidän koti!

Lots of Finns in these parts of America! Good for you in spreading the word about peak oil in Finland.

[Tuike]

Lots of Finns in these parts of America! Good for you in spreading the word about peak oil in Finland.

About spreading word, I have translated english Wikipedias Hubbert peak article to finnish.

Here it is: http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Öljyhuippu

[nth]

A finnish economist say that 40$ oil allows economic growth, while over 50$ oil that keeps that price for months hampers economic growth.

I disagree. The models they are using is wrong. The model doesn't take into how consumers buy goods. If they use retail marketing models they will see that oil needs to rise to $84 before consumers are impacted.

$84 per barrel will equal about $2.25-$2.75 in wholesale unleaded gasoline prices, my guess. For products with no alternative competition aka monopoly industries, you don't see a demand curb, unless prices double from previous peaks, and if the product is a necessity, the demand curb is a very slow one and actually, current economic theory states alternative competitors will come into play before demand drops drastically.

So if no alternative to unleaded gasoline, the prices will need to keep doubling to see an dramatic decrease in demand.
With that the price points become $42, $84, $126, $252. $42 is the norm pricing b/c $1 per gallon.
2x,3x,4x Of course, one barrel of crude doesn't equal a barrel of gasoline, but for simplicity.

[maverickdoc]

keep up the good job Tuike. Europe is more open to peak oil than the US (especially the red states). You should get the end of suburbia and show it as many people you can.

[smiley]

disagree. The models they are using is wrong. The model doesn't take into how consumers buy goods. If they use retail marketing models they will see that oil needs to rise to $84 before consumers are impacted.

But you're looking only at as gasoline. Each consumer only has a certain amount of disposable income. Intuitively I would say that if they spend more on gas, they spend less on other things.

While total spending remains equal the focus has shifted towards gasoline. I would say that would be damaging to the economy. It would result in a greater outflow of money towards oil producing countries. From an employment angle I think there are also better ways to spend the money.

Tuike good work. The more nationalities we have on board the merrier.

[BabyPeanut]

keep up the good job Tuike. Europe is more open to peak oil than the US (especially the red states). You should get the end of suburbia and show it as many people you can.

The myth of "red states". I like the "it's not the vote that counts, it's who counts the vote" one. link When how a voting machine functions is a trade secret then you just push the button and they tell you that you voted for what they want to.

[Arkwright]

Good translation I got the end of suburbia and been showing it around to my friends in Helsinki. I'm thinking of organising a bigger showing/small seminar about peak oil in Helsinki, but we'll see how it goes

[nth]

But you're looking only at as gasoline. Each consumer only has a certain amount of disposable income. Intuitively I would say that if they spend more on gas, they spend less on other things. While total spending remains equal the focus has shifted towards gasoline. I would say that would be damaging to the economy. It would result in a greater outflow of money towards oil producing countries. From an employment angle I think there are also better ways to spend the money.

Hrm... I am not sure if you understand what you are saying. Any price increase on any consumer product will affect the economy according to what you are saying. If that is your point, then your point is taken and unrelated to what I am talking about.

It is too difficult to discuss minute details of economy. But, the key points is how much oil price need to go up before oil demand drops or stops increasing?

Also, to talk about economics, what you are saying is over simplify. Oil price increase is not necessarily bad for the economy. Economy grows by increasing production. To increase production, you often need capital, which may not be necessary, but often is the case. To increase capital, you need money and money is often made through profits. To maximize profits, you need to increase efficiency.

So knowing how economy grows, oil price rise will mean more money to invest back into economy. If that money is invested wisely, it will increase economic growth. In US, we have our own oil industries, so oil price increase doesn't mean all the profits are invested in Middle East. The amount that is invested in US either through direct investments or spending by Middle East to buy US goods... all this money if directly or indirectly flows back to US and provides more goods into US economy then there is a net benefit to all parties. That is why money is not a zero sum game, which many people failed to realize. The key to not being a zero sum game is through gaining efficiencies and this in US is measured by productivity.

Okay, I hope you get the picture now and that I can end my mini course on economics. Again, this economy thing is unrelated to my original post, which is about how much oil price need to increase to lower demand.

[Boff]

Hyvä suomalaiset!
There is finnish page with Peak Oil links:
http://personal.inet.fi/koti/jarmo.uusitalo/oljy.htm

[Tuike]

There are two other finns already shown up! Good!

HS reports that there were 400 people attending the anti-war protest in Helsinki. In Stockholm, Sweden there were 300 people protesting, and in Oslo, Norway there were 400 people protesting. Demonstration in Helsinki was peaceful.

Not too many protesters. Nordic people are not too fond to protest I think.

[maverickdoc]

Good translation I got the end of suburbia and been showing it around to my friends in Helsinki. I'm thinking of organising a bigger showing/small seminar about peak oil in Helsinki, but we'll see how it goes

Arkwright let us know of the response you get

[Tonttoro]

A few other finnish blogs that contain information on Peak Oil. I think that peak oil is known pheomenon on some parts of finnish blogosphere:
http://jantunen.blogspot.com
http://tiedemies.blogspot.com
http://lovelacentesti.blogspot.com
http://vaarma.blogspot.com/
http://www.students.tut.fi/~virtanea/ajatus/plogi.html

At least Tekniikka & Talous magazine (Technology & Economy) has probed the Peak Oil issue. Of course T & T is an magazine for engineers, not really for economists. If anyone in Finland can lend me End of Suburbia, I would be delighted. Of course even better if someone can host a screening.

--
Tonttoro, formerly a lurker.

[Tuike]

There was on tv news that Finnair raises the price of flight tickets by 50% because of high oil prices.

[Tuike]

There was on Mtv3 commercial tv channel news that refineries cannot output enough fuel for US driving season. 100$ superspike was mentioned, but peak oil wasn't.

[Tuike]

It looks like the server upgrade has corrupted the scandinavian letters å, ä and ö.

There was an interview of an economist from ETLA in Radio Peili, dvb digital radio. They were talking about high price of oil. The economist said that strong demand from China is the reason for high price. Oil is produced at maxinum speed. They were conserned because heavy oil from middle-east contains much sulpfur and it is hard to process at refineries. The economist said that there might be a shortage of fuel in the Usa this summer. Finally they wonder about how long oil supplies will last. The economist said that it is predicted that they'll last 40 years and he thought that after ten years they'll make a new prediction that oil supplies last longer as new oil is found.

They have never heard of peak oil before.

Meanwhile, the peak oil article in the finnish Wikipedia has been declared to be a featured article. I look forward to see it in the front page as the featured article of the month. Here's again the article: http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Öljyhuippu It has been enchanted since it's first appearance.

[Tuike]

HS: Transport industry fears MASS PANKRUPCY because of high price of oil

Fuel costs have very high precent of expences. Diesel costs can be 35% of overall expences. A large truck can cosume worth 25.000 euros of fuel per year.

Because of rise of crude oil price, diesel costs about 1/3 more than year before. Transport companies have fixed cost treties and therefore they cannot ask for a higher price even if fuel costs rise.

Truck transport business uses about 1,2 billion litres of diesel per year, so an increase of 30% in diesel cost causes 360 million euros of extra cost. Truck drivers demand that diesel tax is completely removed, but that wouldn't help much.


There have been talks of Usa going to be bankrupt in this forum, but other countries are going bankrupt as well.

[Tuike]

Attention finnish peakers

Watch "45 minuuttia" program on mtv3 next wednesday april 27th. I saw a commercial about the program and there was that are we facing an oil crisis here or are these high oil prices just a blip?

I hope they have others than just economists in the studio this time.

[Andrew_S]

I believe that Finland has one of the highest per capita consumptions of oil in Europe. Do you know why that is? Is it heating oil or what?

How do you think Finland will attempt to adjust to peak oil?