[onlooker]

To counter the argument that because gasoline is relatively cheap and people keep driving alot, all must be well with the Economy umm people are not driving so much anymore
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... er-2-years

[Cog]

A lot of people drive less because they tele-commute or have simply retired. There are a lot of us baby-boomers who have retired and drive very little anymore. You can look at a chart that shows the number of people NOT in the work-force and it answers a lot of your questions. This whole discussion about demand destruction is another attempt by ETP'ers to shape the facts to fit their flawed model.

Do you really think that because gas is cheap that we hop in the car and drive around in circles to use more? LOL

[KaiserJeep]

Then there are some of us that consciously reduced our FF consumption over the years. In 2002 to 2007 I commuted via light rail, conventional train, and a diesel shuttle bus. In 2008 I became a telecommuter. In 2011 I put solar panels on the roof. In 2015 I retired and in retirement my gasoline consumption has fallen to about 50 gallons per year. These are all conscious reductions to FF usage.

[vtsnowedin]

To counter the argument that because gasoline is relatively and people keep driving alot, all must be well with the Economy people are not driving so much anymore
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... er-2-years

Silly, it's because of all the electric cars and superb public transportation facilities in our socialist utopia out here in CA saving everybody else. You'll all be so sorry when we secede from the union and we lead the rest of the remainder of the free world.
They'll love us once they get to know us.
Honest.

Texans and other haters don't hate us. They're just jealous of our freedoms in CA.
(note: funny huh? Sorry I did not pen it, came from the comment section.)

Two EVs out of every 100 cars in California will not a demand decline make.
We may well be in a recession brought about by the Obama administration policies and Obama care that will not go away until Congress gets off it's fat @$$ and changes it. It may also be that that as car driving baby boomers retire their replacement is a robot that doesn't commute or a millennial that telecommutes or uses public transportation a lot.

[onlooker]

Cog your comment does negate an economic slowdown explanation and Kaiser show us some definitive proof that people in mass are voluntarily adopting their lives to substantially reduce fossil fuel usage. I simply do not think that is possible considering how people are tied to the system and because of the energy mix breakdown of this country. ie still heavily dependent on FF

[Cog]

Do you really think that because gas is cheap that we hop in the car and drive around in circles to use more? LOL

Yeah Cog, that is exactly what folks . . . used to do

"Let's go for a drive honey!" "Let's take a drive in the country! "Mommy, please. Let's go look at the fall colors! Please" "Hey kids, grab your polls let's go find a fishing hole" "Let's shoot up a fire extinguisher" "Hey luke, you got some of that glue, let's find a chick and party out by the quarry" Those were the halcyon days.

Now KJ drives a Tesla and saves the day lol

You should be happy people are using less gas. Its not the end of the world. For instance, I'm a bit of a dinosaur technology wise but I do all my banking and a lot of my shopping on-line now. Delivered right to my door is great. Why drive when someone else can do it?

[Cog]

Just for you I'm going to drive to a store tomorrow to increase GDP. I'll show that FedEx driver a thing or two.

[Outcast_Searcher]

To counter the argument that because gasoline is relatively cheap and people keep driving alot, all must be well with the Economy umm people are not driving so much anymore
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... er-2-years

If miles driven equated to economic growth you might have a point. It doesn't and you don't.

As others have said, demographics are changing and that reduces total miles driven.

Given you agree that AGW is a problem, why wouldn't you think that's a good thing? I think that coupled with a more efficient fleet over time, that's a very good thing. (Too bad the growing third world demand is overwhelming dwindling third world demand, thus global oil consumption continues to increase every year).

When I worked full time I drove about 8000 miles a year. Now retired, I drive about 4000 miles a year in a car that gets better gas mileage. So by definition, I use less than half the gasoline for driving that I used to. Now, multiply that by millions of people driving less, and it adds up. Now, add to that things like growing telecommuting, internet shopping, internet socialization (smart phones, etc), and it starts to REALLY make a dent.

And we get a tiny (but growing) slice of improvement from the move away from pure ICE's, which will almost certainly accelerate as time goes on.

So, add it all up, and look for the trend to likely continue.

Even as economic growth likely continues as well. Imagine that.

[onlooker]

I only bought it up OS, because some bought it up on peak oil threads to support a rosy scenario. Obviously, the only factor to look at in examining the Economy. I just it is telling considering that we are so car dependent and because of our affinity for driving.
As for its relation to AGW, yes that is good. By itself this trend does not prove anything but it bears watching

[AdamB]

To counter the argument that because gasoline is relatively cheap and people keep driving alot, all must be well with the Economy umm people are not driving so much anymore
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... er-2-years

You should have quoted some of the particulars.

"While the media continues to blast the occasional OPEC production-related headline, the reality is that crude supply is increasingly becoming a shale story, as the US, now tens of billions in debt lighter - has rapidly emerged as the low-cost, marginal oil producer. "

From peak oil in 1970 or so, to global low-cost, marginal oil producer, forcing the Saudi's to change their business model after half a century...I can see why you might not want to quote particulars from the article.

As far as the US motorist being in worse shape because of driving less? Not a chance people will fall for that any more than they will the etp modeling nonsense, Americans choosing to drive less (even as they buy record numbers of new autos) is a good thing. I see it in the kids, they do this Uber thing, they aren't interested in driving or having a car, it isn't near as cool, this driving thing, as when I was a kid, they are all bicycling, wanting an "urban" lifestyle, no darn wonder as youngsters give up on cars overall miles decrease.

Leave it to zerohedge, they who have correctly predicted 52 of the last economic collapses, to turn the early visible stages of peak demand into something bad.

[AdamB]

You should be happy people are using less gas.

Everyone who is honest, is happy about it.

Its not the end of the world.

Nope. But it is the end of the peak oil fear meme, when instead that thing the experts have been talking about for a couple years now, can be seen in the data. Peak demand, thank you Amy Jaffe for leading the way!

[onlooker]

Yes Adam everybody will become so efficient and frugal they will not need any products or services derived from oil. Then you can all sing kumbaya by the fire and roast beetles and keep saying, I told you so.

[dinopello]

We have been greening our work force - hiring younger/cheaper engineers. At least half of these 20 somethings don't even own cars. They think driving is stupid and especially the cost of owning. They would rather spend it at whole foods.

[KaiserJeep]

It does appear that my wife would like another high-end luxury SUV to replace her 2001 Jeep Grand Cherokee Limited. I cannot complain, she has owned it since new and put 178,500 miles on it. I have decided to indulge her and allow her to get whatever she wants, including another Jeep. I have asked her to get one - or order one - with a flex fuel engine, probably the base V6. Purchase or order to be placed this year. My assumption is that it will be the last car we order new, or at least second to last. I'm hanging on to my 2003 Wrangler with 56,000 miles. When I replace it - rather if I replace it, I'll get an EV.

When we replace our house, we will get an all-electric, super-insulated home. In everything all of us do for the rest of our lives, we should consider that we will be living in an energy-constrained future, probably sooner than we want or anticipate. So spend the extra bucks to be energy-efficient.

[AdamB]

Yes Adam everybody will become so efficient and frugal they will not need any products or services derived from oil.

Why? There is no need, and it will be difficult, for any absolute reduction scheme to work. The real advantage to peak demand is the extension in time available from a generation or three to the rest of this century in which to complete the transition.

The peak oil meme has always been favored by apocalyptic folks because of its timing, one afternoon no fuel, a day or three later and no food or modern conveniences. Once industry demonstrated that their ability to respond to a price signal was so strong that it could drown the world in commodity, well, it was time for them to run along and dream up some other self destruct scenario to bring about their hopes and dreams.

Then you can all sing kumbaya by the fire and roast beetles and keep saying, I told you so.

Industry was saying "I told you so" the last time folks were claiming peak oil silliness. No need to wait, and arguably what those fears created were the seeds to negate any more of that type of fear mongering in the future. The wife running off to work 5 days a week, hot or cold, movies and groceries and all the sorts of things big chunks of the modern world do, is proof of how well auto manufacturers themselves are working to mitigate each successive oil development cycle in the sine wave theory of oil production.

[GoghGoner]

Demand fell hard in January by EIA numbers but has been increasing through February. Those numbers are just an estimate and subject to huge revisions. I think exports to Mexico could have fallen in January and not gasoline demand. It used to be Mastercard would put out weekly gasoline demand numbers but all we have now is the EIA.

VMT is at a record high as of the last number put out and fleet fuel efficiency has been falling due to low gasoline prices. Zero hedge is a bunch of con jobs trying to sell their garbage positions.

[onlooker]

Adam you have absolutely no insight into the the state of the oil plays we are now forced to resign ourselves to.Contrast the Fracking or hydraulic fracturing to get oil and gas http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fracking.asp) to the gushing oil geysers that just flowed prodigiously outward. Look how deep we now mine to get the oil, or where we go -far off and inaccessible places like the deep oceans and polar regions. All this translates to much more energy to extract the oil leaving less net energy for the rest of the Economy. This is plainly clear and factually indisputable