[HonestPessimist]

The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle? By JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER:
A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above fifty-five dollars a barrel, which is about twenty dollars a barrel more than a year ago. The next day, the oil story was buried on page six of the New York Times business section. Apparently, the price of oil is not considered significant news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in the span of ten days. That same day, the stock market shot up more than a hundred points because, CNN said, government data showed no signs of inflation. Note to clueless nation: Call planet Earth.

...more at web site...(avoid copyright issues)

[savethehumans]

This is but an EXCERPT from his book of the same name, due out in May. You can pre-order it over at amazon. com. (I have!)

This is an EXCELLENT article. Everyone should click on the printer version of it, and run a copy for their files/records! (I have!)

All this IMHO, of course. Wouldn't want to come off as an Egotist, but this is such a good assessment of our situation. When something's good, you like to share the news with everyone!

[aldente]

Kunstler is the best!
Here his latest post, just two days old:
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary13.html

[hull3551]

2020 should be an interesting year. That is when I've read the Ogalalla Aquifer is pojected to be fully depleted.

Great article.

[formandfile]

I'm really glad that he has focused a book that looks at the root cause of our problems, rather than the symptoms (suburban development, highway construction, etc) I think it marks a nice maturing of his writing, and think this book will be much more effective than past works criticising the suburban phenomena...something that has already been covered by countless authors....

....but then again, as said by someone else on this forum, Kunstler has a style, wit and tendancy to beat you with his message that proves to be more effective than other writers penning down the same subjects. Needless to say, ill be at the bookstore bright in early when this is released

[NeoPeasant]

My library's database shows it on order and I am first the list to check it out.

[EnviroEngr]

Went to Jim's presentation last night at UW, bought his new book and will scan it for highlights.

Looks good so far.

[Taskforce_Unity]

woot it can be ordered! woohoo. nice,

paperback version due in august

[NeoPeasant]

I've been first on the list to get the library's copy when it arrives for over a month now. Should be getting that email to come pick it up any time now...

[seldom_seen]

got my copy yesterday! (not sure if I should be excited about a book called the long emergency? )

Made it through the first chapter on my way home yesterday.

couple observations...

Kunstler writes of globalization in the past tense...

Kunstler describes the extremes of the debate, the cornucopians (no problem!) and the die-off crowd (human extinction) and says he falls somewhere in between with the scale tipping towards the die off end of the spectrum.

The book is at #350 in sales on Amazon, so it seems be selling pretty well...

[jesus_of_suburbia_old]

I really wanted to go up to Steven's Point to see that presentation. I actually have second farming family up there.

I did not know the book was out. I thought it had a May release date. I'll have to postpone it anyway. I have to read Anna Karenina and the Death of Ivan Illyich by the end of next week!

[eastbay]

I just received my copy in the mail. This is a very powerful overview of the coming disaster and the reasons why there is little hope for a replacement for oil.

I particularly like the way he ties in his personal experiences, both good and bad, in utilizing alternative energy sources in powering his own property. He points out his experiences in using solar power and the fact that's it's fundamentally an oil-based system considering the manufacture and construction processes.

There's one unnecessary and unfortunate footnote, however, that must be mentioned. I was very disappointed to read a pro-Iraq war, pro-military occupation rant in a book like this. President Bush could certainly use Kunstler as his own pro oil-war rooting section. I'll finish reading the book, but I won't be recommending it to anyone after reading that bizaare defence of the Bush Iraq Oil War.

EastBay

[seldom_seen]

There's one unnecessary and unfortunate footnote, however, that must be mentioned. I was very disappointed to read a pro-Iraq war, pro-military occupation rant in a book like this. President Bush could certainly use Kunstler as his own pro oil-war rooting section. I'll finish reading the book, but I won't be recommending it to anyone after reading that bizaare defence of the Bush Iraq Oil War.
EastBay

Maybe I was reading a different book, but I have not come across any endorsements of the bush war on Iraq. Could you provide a quote or page numbers? Maybe I missed it.

Would I do find is lots of references to the inability of many Americans to connect the dots between their way of life and what is happening in Iraq. "One family in my neighborhood had a sign in their yard that said 'War Is Not the Answer' --and had two SUVs in the driveway." (page 89)

Prior to the invasion of Iraq, I personally witnessed an SUV caravan/war protest led by soccer moms in Grand Cherokees, Ford Excursions and Chevy Suburbans. I was at once dumbfounded and very embarrased for these people.

I think kunstler does a great job of pointing out the hypocrisy of what he calls "yuppie progressive 'greens'" who "drive their SUVs to environmental rallies."

Maybe that's one reason we are in such a mess, because so many people seem to have no ability to connect their own behavior with external events.

I find it odd that you would not reccomend this book to friends because it doesn't follow some prescribed political agenda that matches your worldview, when it has such an important and prescient message.

[eastbay]

Seldom_Seen,

Maybe I was reading a different book, but I have not come across any endorsements of the bush war on Iraq. Could you provide a quote or page numbers? Maybe I missed it.

I'm certain you were reading the same book, but maybe you were reading too quickly (as I do now and then too) and missed the section beginning on page 85 and ending on page 89.

A few quotes from that section read like they came from a Bush speechwriter:

"The United States needed to know conclusively if anything dangerous existed..."

"The fact that nothing (WMD) was found by American forces after the 2003 invasion does not prove that we didn't have to look."

"There were other good reasons for getting rid of Saddam Hussein."

Again, I won't be recommending this book because of the pro-war position. I draw the line at that. If more did maybe there wouldn't be this idiotic war... or the next ones either.

Unapologetically,

EastBay

[qwanta]

I just finished the book, and I thought it was a good read with some interesting insights. I thought Kunstler was at his best when describing some of the architectural consequences of oil/gas shortages. For example, a 48 hour gas shortage in the middle of winter would bust all the water pipes in a skyscraper (I'm paraphrasing from memory, don't quote me on this!). I also liked his put down of the whole globalization process of being a shortterm consequence of the late 20th century oil blow-off.

On the other hand, his analysis of Middle Eastern politics/Iraq war was a little off, and I was surprised that he sounded about as hawkish (and revisionist) as Paul Wolfowitz in his WMD discussion; but I don't have to agree with everything in a book to get something out of it.

One thing that surprised me though was the lack of any bibliography, notes or index in the book. I think a bibliography should have been included to at least point people who are reading about peak oil to some other resources and authors (Heinberg, Deffayes, Campbell, Darley, etc...). If one of the big points of the book was to alert middle Americans to the whole peak oil situation, I think this lack is doing them a disservice as they may come away with the impression that Kunstler is just a loose cannon with no expert-backing (though to be fair, he does mention some sources by name in the book).

If globalisation is a consequence of cheap oil, then can we go back in history and make some more sense of events from an energy/resource perspective? Kunstler attempts to do this with some interesting stuff on the crusades and the middle ages among other things, and I would have loved to know his sources for this. Is he grounded in scholarly evidence, or is he extrapolating backwards out of his ass? I would have liked some footnotes at that point, because some of his ideas are extremely interesting and new to me. If others have written on the subject, I would have liked to know where to go for further reading.

All in all though, a valid contribution to the peak oil literature and worth a read even if you've already read Heinberg, and the other 'classics'.

[HonestPessimist]

I'll wait for his book to be formatted in a trade paperback, hopefully soon. I'm no fan of hardcover format.

[HonestPessimist]

"There were other good reasons for getting rid of Saddam Hussein."

Again, I won't be recommending this book because of the pro-war position. I draw the line at that. If more did maybe there wouldn't be this idiotic war... or the next ones either.

Unapologetically,

EastBay

Sure, and those hidden mass graves recently excavated in Iraq are not parts of good reasons?

[JLK]

Here is my two cents on the book..

[url=http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0871138883/qid=1114992295/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/002-1245979-2604849?v=glance&s=books&n=507846]The Long Emergency
by James Howard Kunstler[/url]

Jim Kunstler is a familiar face to those who follow the Peak Oil debate. A former editor at Rolling Stone and now an independent writer based in the Adirondack region of New York State, Kunstler has authored three nonfiction books that that address the unsustainability and wastefulness that has been caused by the postwar trend of suburban and exurban development in the United States. Intense, energetic and sometimes crude, Kunstler was prominently featured in the recent video The End of Suburbia and publishes an oft-amusing weekly online commentary on current events, the title of which I will leave the reader to explore at their own peril.

The first two chapters of The Long Emergency are an elegant summary of the approaching peak of world crude oil production and the effect that the oilfield depletion that is already well advanced will have on the viability of the American way of life (particularly in the suburbs, or course), globalism and global population. Some reviewers are finding the book gloomy, which may be the case; I'm more concerned with whether its forecasts are realistic, and based on the research I have done on the issues, many of them may well be. Others, though, seem to be a stretch, as I will discuss further below.

The third chapter discusses the geopolitics of Peak Oil. Kunstler describes the growing struggle against what he calls "militant Islam," the issue of Saudi stability, the reasons behind the Iraq occupation and the potential of future contests between the US and other powers, particularly China, for future access to Saudi oil. In my opinion, he underemphasizes the role that Israeli excesses have played in provoking the Islamists and strengthening groups like Al Qaeda, viewing the conflict as "intractable," when it might actually be solvable with some timely adjustments in US foreign policy. He concludes, however, that the US will eventually be worn down military and economically and forced to withdraw from the region. This seems to be the probable outcome to me as well.

The fourth chapter gives an excellent if brief description of why alternative fuels are unlikely to be an adequate replacement to crude oil and its byproducts, at least at the prices that would be required to sustain the American way of life and free market globalism as we now know it.

The fifth chapter delves into broader issues such as global warming and how its effects will likely superimpose themselves onto the human misery and dislocation that will be caused by oil depletion. Catastrophic spread of AIDS, mass starvation due to climate change and lack of petrochemical fertilizers, rampaging strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and lack of fresh water are some of the more realistic examples Kunstler gives of what the world has to look forward to in coming decades. This may be Kunstler at his characteristic gloomiest, but it is worth considering in my opinion. It is no coincidence that global population has increased at a Malthusian pace during the past 150 years, and that the increase has paralleled the exploitation of crude oil and petrochemicals. Most of the world's fertilizer is synthesized from natural gas, for example, which is also increasingly in short supply in many parts of the world, particularly in North America. It is quite likely that the population carrying capacity of a world with diminished fossil fuel production would be markedly decreased.

I found the sixth chapter "The Hallucinated Economy" to amount to a cynical leftist diatribe against American-style corporatism and free market globalism. There is no doubt that the free market system will have a hard time adjusting in future years, but I expect that it will do better than any workable alternative. In my view, globalism has helped the human condition more than it has hurt it. Its collapse may be cheered by the antidevelopment crowd, but it will harken the loss of hope for much of the world's poor, many of whom face a bleak uncertain future as their meagre yet essential fossil fuel based infrastructure is no longer available for use.

The seventh and last chapter, "Living in The Long Emergency" is at once thought-provoking, sobering and unrealistically apocalyptic. Kunstler projects that the United States will fragment into autonomous regions, with the Southwest and the major cities nationwide ultimately nearly depopulating. He thinks the rural Northeast and Midwest are best suited as a result of their geography and respect for diversity and the rule of law to making the transition to an economy based on local production. I have to say that some stereotypical northeastern liberal bias is evident in his gloomy predictions of violence and unrest in the Southeast and Mountain West, which he views as unstable due to the "hyperindividualism" and religious fundamentalism of those who live there. Personally, I would predict that the potential for civil conflict is greater in the major metropolitan areas of the Northeast, particularly in the inner cities and close-in suburbs, and in the Rust Belt than in the Southeast or in the valleys of Idaho. In my view, Kunstler defies credibility as well in predicting future attacks by Asian proto-pirates along the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest. (Note to Jim: It's a long way from Malacca to Seattle.)

Overall, I would say that the book is a must read for those who are interested in learning more about oil depletion and the changes that is is about the wreak on the world. Kunstler's talent as a writer always makes for an entertaining read, but this book provides much more than that.

[mgibbons19]

Seldom_Seen,

Maybe I was reading a different book, but I have not come across any endorsements of the bush war on Iraq. Could you provide a quote or page numbers? Maybe I missed it.

I'm certain you were reading the same book, but maybe you were reading too quickly (as I do now and then too) and missed the section beginning on page 85 and ending on page 89.

A few quotes from that section read like they came from a Bush speechwriter:

"The United States needed to know conclusively if anything dangerous existed..."

"The fact that nothing (WMD) was found by American forces after the 2003 invasion does not prove that we didn't have to look."

"There were other good reasons for getting rid of Saddam Hussein."

Again, I won't be recommending this book because of the pro-war position. I draw the line at that. If more did maybe there wouldn't be this idiotic war... or the next ones either.

Unapologetically,

EastBay

I haven't gotten that far, but regarding the lines above, Kunstler is a huge smartass. He may well be saying exactly what he sees Bush thinking, and doing it deadpan. My initial reaction to Kunstler would suspect the smartass intention long long long before the pro war intention.

But again, I'm reading it slowly. He's too much fun to read fast.