[dsula]

I just picked up a free old book about oil from the local school. It's for children and published in 1980. It explains everyhting from what oil is, to how it's extracted, refined and used. And interestingly enough it also had a chapter about the future of oil. It mentioned that by the end of the century probably only 45MB/d will be available which is less than in 1980.

Funny how they got it wrong. I'm wondering if we too, are wrong and in fact supply will climb to 100, or 120 MB/d?

[ralfy]

What you probably want is not a children's book but Hubbert's study, as well as various reports shared here:

https://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/

The forecasts have been correct so far: peak oil for the U.S. by 1970, then peak oil globally starting 2005 (conventional production has been in a plateau since 2005). The IEA states a 9-pct increase with all oil and gas sources put online for the next two decades. The catch is that conventional production will not drop.

Finally, we also need to look at oil production per capita, which is more logical than just production as we face a growing population coupled with increased consumption. According to BP, oil production per capita peaked back in 1979.

[dsula]

(conventional production has been in a plateau since 2005).

What is conventional production?
The conventional way of getting oil is by walking down to the patch and fill up the bucket where the oil seeps from the ground.

Then sombody came along and used a pickaxe and shovel to dig down. That was the end of conventional oil. Ever since it's all unconventional.

[ralfy]

What is conventional production?
The conventional way of getting oil is by walking down to the patch and fill up the bucket where the oil seeps from the ground.

Then sombody came along and used a pickaxe and shovel to dig down. That was the end of conventional oil. Ever since it's all unconventional.

http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/oil/