[airstrip1]

Oil hit a 5 week low today and was down over 4% in one trading session. Natural gas prices fell even further. Unusually, this occurred at the same time as the dollar was also weakening. Given that gold was up over $5 I would have expected oil and the other commodities to have risen as well. The fact that this did not occur suggests that the technical signals for the energy market are turning bearish. Despite the rally on Wall street over the past few weeks the earnings results being announced by many companies are less than stellar. This suggests to me that the world economy is starting to cool quite fast. Could their be a recession on the way ?

[airstrip1]

Could their be a recession on the way ?

Sorry, that should read - Could there be a recession on the way?

[Ayoob]

Who knows? I think it has more to do with the Nigerian strike being stopped, and with the oil coming back online in the Gulf of Mexico. There could be a recession coming, but who knows?

[nznutter]

I think that there is a just a correction happening akin to when oil shot to $49 a barrel before falling to $42 a barrel for sometime. I would not worry about it to much. Long term the price of oil will rise and therefore I still see the oil market as very bullish.

[Colorado-Valley]

It's possible the government is quietly pumping some of the strategic petroleum reserve into the system to keep oil prices from going to $60 or higher right now.

I don't know how long they can do that. I read they have about a 60-day national supply.

I'm going to buy gold, anyway ...

[TrueKaiser]

i wouldn't buy gold. it will not only be the first thing to be taken from you if the economy tanks. it might even get you killed as you horde it in your house.
i would if you can invest in the euro, when the dollar falls it will gain in value.

[Colorado-Valley]

I've been thinking about euros, too, but they just don't seem as sexy ...

I suppose I should buy guns.

[Theo]

I've been thinking about euros, too, but they just don't seem as sexy ...

I suppose I should buy guns.

Why not buy land?

[Kris]

It's hard to buy land unless you have lots of money, unless you want more debt. Gold, Silver moreso, are probably the best investments one can make these days. Having you paper in Euros rather than USD is also a smart move.

[frankthetank]

Land? around here it sells for 2500/acre for big chunks, more for small parts. Most is far away from any city(jobs), cable lines (internet), etc. A person would become even more chained to gasoline.

Colorado, if i may ask, how did you go about buying gold? I've checked into Euros, they have a charge of $20 just to exchange.

Dumb question, but if inflation (prices skyrocket) wouldn't interest rates have to go up, therefore allowing your US dollars to atleast maintain some value?

Interest rates right now are pathetic...

[Gatherer]

"Colorado, if i may ask, how did you go about buying gold? I've checked into Euros, they have a charge of $20 just to exchange."

Don't know about euros, but gold is easy to buy. Try a web search on "buy gold". Recommend buying the actual stuff--gold ingots or coins. Gold stocks (paper) are too risky. You'll pay a premium but it's not bad and gold is going up. Also, we were told that you need to buy "collectible" coins (pre-1933) as, under current US law, they are exempt from confiscation. During the Depression, privately owned gold was confiscated by the government to back up the currency. They made an exception for "coin collectors" as a sop to their rich friends.

I agree that land is the better investment though. Doesn't matter if it's far from a city, except that you're better off with community support. Find a small rural town if possible. You don't need a lot--5 acres will provide sufficient food for a large family, and you will have stuff to trade with your neighbors. Search under "self-sufficiency" at the library or on the Web. It can be done--just remember that the more friends you've got with you the better you can defend what you have. Plus you'll need the help with the crops and animals!

[MonteQuest]

Sounds an awful lot like peak-oil to me. On MSNBC, no less.

Oil traders have been keeping a close watch on the weekly inventory numbers because the usual fallback — big production increases by major OPEC producers — no longer seems likely. Global production is now running just one percent above the world's daily consumption of 82.4 million barrels, a razor thin cushion that leaves little room for either a production outage or a further increase in demand.

Oil industry experts are divided on whether new oil supplies can be found quickly enough to keep up with growing demand. One leading proponent of the theory that oil production is peaking, Princeton University geologist Kenneth Deffeyes, predicts that global output will reach its limit by late next year and then gradually begin declining.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6513898/

[savethehumans]

On Thursday, oil prices jumped up after the US announced that its heating reserves were down 16% from 2003 figures....

It's gonna be a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng winter on the East Coast!

[trespam]

Sounds an awful lot like peak-oil to me. On MSNBC, no less.

Ah. But the generals tell us they've broken the back of the insurgency. I'm sure Iraq will be pumping 3.5 mbpd any day now. Nudge nudge. Wink wink.

Something will have to give. I think it's called growth. ODAC believes we've got through 2007, but I've not looked at any specifics that indicate new production next year and the following.

[Jack]

Did you all read the Barron's article that Aaron posted earlier this week? An analyst with 36 (or 38?) years experience is calling Peak...

And when you get an analyst with that much experience published in an investment newspaper of the stature of Barron's, I believe you can safely say that Peak will soon be forced into the public awareness.

I know that Trespam will be particularly disappointed that the article disapproves of the Iraq war!

[Colorado-Valley]

Well, it was only one of the great military blunders of history.

Or, if you read the interview with Ruppert, one of the great political scandals of history.

We need to drop that military keystone-kop show and start building a renewable-energy infrastructure right now.

[lowem]

Hmmm ... they said "limit" instead of "peak".

Is "peak" becoming an unmentionable word?

[Grimnir]

While crude futures are about 40 percent higher than a year ago, they would have to reach $90 per barrel to meet the inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980.

Why does every damn article on oil prices have to mention that factoid? I get really sick of hearing it.

[nero]

Why does every damn article on oil prices have to mention that factoid? I get really sick of hearing it.

I agree, and the actual number jumps around alot too, it depends on what inflation rate you use (core, non-core, cost of living adjustment), and what you are comparing( highest average yearly price, highest daily price, highest intra day price).

[k_semler]

Why does every damn article on oil prices have to mention that factoid? I get really sick of hearing it.

I agree, and the actual number jumps around a lot too, it depends on what inflation rate you use (core, non-core, cost of living adjustment), and what you are comparing( highest average yearly price, highest daily price, highest intra day price).

I agree that the "inflation adjusted" number is updated quite frequently. I am wondering when we eventually reach $100.00 per barrel, will the media be stating that 1980's adjusted price was $175.00 per barrel, (figures pulled out of my ass), merely to ease the public mind that there is no crisis. The whole "inflation adjusted" price seems like a fixing of the "misquotes" of Big Brother by Minitrue. I wonder how many people remember that it used to be $80.00 in 1980 prices, and before that, it was $75.00 in 1980 inflation adjusted dollars? Probably not many persons do. Looks like Minitrue has successfully re-written history. But as we know, history has not been altered, merely corrected, (doublethink mode).

"He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past" --George Orwell, 1984