[kakkerlak]

Hello,

I'm kakkerlak and i live in The Netherlands (a small country in Western Europe). Kakkerlak means cockroach in Dutch. Most online friends simply call me Roach.

Forgive me for my bad English, it's not my mother language, but i get better at it each day.

I'm reading about Peak Oil for a few years now and today i decided to make my first post to see if im able to contribute a little. To make my first post look a bit more intelligent (hopefully), i have a small observation;

This year we need to produce a certain amount of oil to keep up with demand. Next year we need to produce a little bit more oil to keep up with growth, right? So, do we really need a decline in oil production to see 'economic/supply problems'? If we produce the same amount of oil each year, then we still don't produce enough to keep up with growth, right?

If i'm right this means decline rates are not THAT important simply because a decline is not necessary to cause 'problems'. It seems these 'problems' are already affecting country's like Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, etc. right now, today! Poor poor people

Have fun!
Roach

[TheTurtle]

Welcome to PO.com, Roach.

You are probably correct in your assessment. Of course, we DO have decline, so the problem will grow even worse.

[steam_cannon]

Welcome Roach, with that name you must be a real survivor!

Regarding decline rates, they are important simply because they compound problems...

Mexico, the #2 source of imported crude oil into the US, which will probably approach zero net oil exports by 2014.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35454.html

6 years is not very long and only 3 years for Mexican exports to half...

[SpringCreekFarm]

Welcome to peakoil.com Roach. You'll find everything you need here to answer your questions regarding peak oil and what to do to help you prepare for the independence that will help you. Not save you, but help you.

Great name. Puts me in mind of a different kind of 'roach' though, since you said you are from the Netherlands.

[Heineken]

I remember my first post. The post-hole digger was brand-new, with sky-blue paint and freshly laquered wood. I was young and as strong as a bear. The ground, damp from a mild spring rain, yielded easily under my thrusts and the steel jaws. I dug through a layer of rich forest topsoil followed by rocky yellow subsoil, and then I entered the blood-red Virginia clay. All this I mounded up beside the deepening hole as I worked the digger up and down and talked the metal jaws. When I judged the hole deep enough---down a few thousand years---I picked up the waiting wooden post and slammed it vertically into this orifice of earth. Not knowing then the uses of a tamping bar, I trickled the soil between the edges of hole and post and used my Red Wing boots and mighty twentysomething legs to stomp it down. I nudged the post; it seemed secure enough to serve a few decades of human design.

Willkommen, kakkerlak.

[steam_cannon]

I remember my first post. The post-hole digger was brand-new...

Great "post" Heineken!

[kakkerlak]

Thanks!

Welcome Roach, with that name you must be a real survivor!

I will be squeezed under a human boot like everybody else, but for now im happy with whatever i find under your refrigerator.

Yes, a decline in production makes it only worse. Hmmmm...now i think about it. Even increasing production each year is not enough. I suppose, for now, demand destruction in poor country's is able to prevent supply from dropping -too much- in the richer places.

[village1diot]

I am new here, but have been realizing many of our problems for a few years now. Now that I have read some of the articles here and seen a couple videos, I can see how much worse off we are than I originally thought. The most compelling thing so far is the speech by Professor Bartlett on the "Exponential Factor". So many things came to light after watching that(3 times to fully grasp what he is saying).

I thank you for this site, it has helped me understand that I can not wait any longer to start preparing for huge economic breakdown. I had already started preparing my house with some minor things(gardening, extra insulation, etc...) but I dont feel like I am anywhere close to being where I need to be. I would love to get solar panels, for instance, but there is no way I can afford them at this point. Another thing is my swimming pool. I would love to do something with it, maybe an underground food storage or something. So, I'm hoping I will find some good ideas to help me do what is necessary to become self-sufficient.

Again, I thank you. I thank you for all the information that no one else seems to be giving.

[BigTex]

I'm glad you found the work of so many people here helpful.

Just take a step back from time to time to process it all and make your own judgments about what the future holds.

And try not to get too freaked out.

[DomusAlbion]

The most compelling thing so far is the speech by Professor Bartlett on the "Exponential Factor".

I couldn't agree more with you on the Bartlett speech. Such a gentle grandfatherly figure quietly telling us that we are totally screwed. I've watched it a dozen times.

And welcome to the new reality.

[kpeavey]

In case you need the link: Professor Albert Bartlett, lecture: Arithmetic, Population and Energy on Youtube, 8 parts.

[threadbear]

I am new here, but have been realizing many of our problems for a few years now. Now that I have read some of the articles here and seen a couple videos, I can see how much worse off we are than I originally thought. The most compelling thing so far is the speech by Professor Bartlett on the "Exponential Factor". So many things came to light after watching that(3 times to fully grasp what he is saying).
Again, I thank you. I thank you for all the information that no one else seems to be giving.

Hey Welcome to Bummer-town! About your pool...Can you stock it with fish? I met a couple of guys a few years back who had a pool, that, no lie, they had just let sit for years, after they threw a few goldfish in it. There were thousands of fish in this pool, and honestly I don't think they'd ever drained it. It was really awful, but a testament to how much filth members of the carp family can tolerate. And if you bought carp, instead of gold fish, you could eat them. Asians do.

[SILENTTODD]

"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are". -Theodore Roosevelt

[Aaron]

In case you need the link: Professor Albert Bartlett, lecture: Arithmetic, Population and Energy on Youtube, 8 parts.

or

http://www.peakoil.tv

That's our media site.

[Aaron]

http://www.peakoil.tv/videos.php?id=17

[Ferretlover]

Another thing is my swimming pool. I would love to do something with it, maybe an underground food storage or something.

Welcome!
About that pool.....drain it, build an underground hallway from your basement, cover the pool, plant a garden over it. Voila! You have a root cellar! (Just don't tell anyone in your physical environment what you are doing with it!)
And, when the tax man comes around, tell him that you filled it in!

[village1diot]

Another thing is my swimming pool. I would love to do something with it, maybe an underground food storage or something.

Welcome!
About that pool.....drain it, build an underground hallway from your basement, cover the pool, plant a garden over it. Voila! You have a root cellar! (Just don't tell anyone in your physical environment what you are doing with it!)
And, when the tax man comes around, tell him that you filled it in!

I like it. This is what I'm going to do most likely.

One question though...

Why is the tax man inquiring about my pool?

[Ferretlover]

Oh, because those city/county tax appraisers are going to need to find reasons to up the property taxes as their tax base diminishes.

[Maddog78]

I've been involved in oil exploration for 30 yrs. so I'm interested in what some people have to say on here.
I live in Canada but have and still do work internationally, in over 30 countries in total.

[MD]

Hi and welcome! It can be a little noisy in here. dig around and be patient and I'm sure you'll discover something of interest.