[Epyx]

Is the situation so serious as most people that have read about Peak Oil puts it? I know that you can't really calculate what's going to happen in the future but would an oil crash make the world economy collapse? Since many experts does believe so why doesn't the governments react sooner instead of when it's too late? I know that the most things in this world is about money but wouldn't they lose money and power if we suffered an oil-crash as serious as experts put it? I've talked about this problem with many of my friends and family but people keeps giving me the same crap "there are always alternative fuels" "the government has an solution to this mather". I'm new to this forum and this is my very first post, I've read alot about Peak Oil cause I find it very interesting but something tells me that I might worry too much since 100% of the people I've talked to online and of my friends have really no idea how a oil-crash would affect us, and maybe we are all worrying too much? Wouldn't the media have picked this story up and made a biggie out of it if the situation is as critical as it seems like when you read about it.

[waegari]

Hi Epyx,


welcome to our website! And unfortunately, yes, the situation is serious. Your friends are right: there will always be alternative forms of energy, but that's not the problem. The problem is: it is highly unlikely that those alternative forms of energy will be able to sustain the present global population. As a matter of fact, it's not even possible now, if you think of those recurrent African famines, so without oil, or with an ever increasing oil price, it's unthinkable.

Another thing is: peak oil is not just about energy. It's also about the rising costs of manufacturing plastics, clothing, pesticides (and thereby food), computers. Our life style is based on plastics for which oil is indispensable, , on cheap clothing for millions and millions of people for which oil is indispensable, on cheap abundance of food, and increasingly on computers. Did you know it takes ten times the weight in oil to produce one computer? Check this story on a rather recent UN rapport.

And that's only one example about our utter dependence in oil. Is peak oil imminent? Well, we can't exactly tell, but the latest reports about at least 2 out of 3 largest oil fields in the world aren't particularly reassuring...Mexico's Cantarell which is number 2 seems to be producing an increasing amount of water instead of oil, while number 3, in Quwait, seems to be much smaller than believed for a long time. Number 1, the giant oil field Gazhwar in Saudi Arabia, may also be in trouble, producing an increasing amount of water instead of oil.

Peak oil is also about time. How much time do we really have to develop a reasonable amount of alternatives? We just can't tell. The only thing we do know: we're probably moving too slowly anyhow.

Would peak oil harm us? Let's take Sweden for an example. Your government is planning to be independent from oil by 2020. Are they really? So what about one of the primary motors behind Swedish economy, IKEA? IKEA would not be as sucesful as it is, were it not for cheap kerosene. They can produce their products at ridiculously low prices and still make a profit, thanks to the availability of cheap air transport. There is no viable alternative to kerosene, at least to my knowledge. Without air transport globalisation is a dead duck. Swedish economy, much as so many other western economies, invariably depends on oil, even if the government would be able to reduce the dependency on the home front...

So well, that's where we're at..The press here in Europe (I'm in the Netherlands) does not report too widely on peak oil. It may have to do with their obsession with Islam and cartoons etcetera.. And nobody wants to be the harbinger of bad news. But trust me, as a news editor here I can tell you that in the Anglosaxon press peak oil awareness is heavily on the rise. It will not take long before the news will break in our continent too.

Meanwhile, don't get too depressed! Remember: we, peakoilers, know what's in store, so we have time to prepare, however inaptly, but at least we know what's cooking.

[Epyx]

Thanks waegari for clearing things out for me . Actually as mentioned in another post about the news article about that Sweden's primary enviromental goal is to be so dependency free as you can of fossil fuels is in my opinion just bullshit, sorry for the chose of words. I might be a left-winged socialist that blames this peak oil matter (and probably most world problems) on the capitalistic economy system but as the right-winged part with their future plans of tax-cuts and privatisation (the red-green are the major part right now) is growing bigger I doubt we will see any green future in Sweden, the opposite in my opinion! We have an election here in September and as far as I know the blue (right-wing) part will win, and I can't see anyone but the rich and powerfull win anything from this really. And as mentioned in another post, railways are being abandoned and farms are being abandoned. I don't see the EU make things better either .

[Doly]

I know that you can't really calculate what's going to happen in the future but would an oil crash make the world economy collapse?

Yes, it's quite likely there will be an economic collapse. At the very least a very serious recession.

Since many experts does believe so why doesn't the governments react sooner instead of when it's too late?

Several reasons:
1) Timeframe. Most democratic governments think in timescales of about 4 years. Peak oil isn't something you can avoid in the last 4 years before it happens. So, governments in power before that don't worry about it because it's out of their timescale, and governments in power during the times immediately before peak oil (ie NOW) find there's not much they can do about it.
2) Calculating the peak oil date is intrinsically difficult. This is because a number of exporting countries are very cagey about their reserves. When experts disagree on when this will happen, it takes credibility away from them. Of course, if you are thinking in a long timeframe (say, 20 years), then practically all the experts agree. It's likely to happen within the next 20 years. But nobody in power is taking such a long timeframe.
3) The measures to avoid the problem would be unpopular. Any government that wants to get to power or stay in power finds that their electorate doesn't like to be told to save energy, or that the economy can't grow indefinitely. In fact, governments that ignore the issue and believe everything will be OK are more likely to get elected. And even if a peak-oil conscious government is in power, they find it difficult to implement the measures they would need in order to avoid the problem.

I know that the most things in this world is about money but wouldn't they lose money and power if we suffered an oil-crash as serious as experts put it?

Yes. That's why I don't think money and power are major reasons that make them neglect the issue. See above for the reasons I believe are most likely.

I'm new to this forum and this is my very first post, I've read alot about Peak Oil cause I find it very interesting but something tells me that I might worry too much since 100% of the people I've talked to online and of my friends have really no idea how a oil-crash would affect us, and maybe we are all worrying too much?

That's like being in a big ship, seeing a big iceberg in front of you, and saying: "I haven't found anybody that has any idea how crashing against that iceberg is going to affect us, maybe we're worrying too much?"

Wouldn't the media have picked this story up and made a biggie out of it if the situation is as critical as it seems like when you read about it.

The media are already talking about it. Search for "peak oil" in the BBC site, for example.

[waegari]

Actually as mentioned in another post about the news article about that Sweden's primary enviromental goal is to be so dependency free as you can of fossil fuels is in my opinion just bullshit, sorry for the chose of words.

Well, you're simply right. My dad in his working days used to be quality controller with Volvo Netherlands. He flew thousands of miles to keep in touch with the Volvo 340 (I suppose it was) bumper manufacturer amongst others. Don't see how they would keep in touch without oil, let alone have those cars be assembled at all.
But, what's more, how on earth would Volvo ever manage without oil based bumpers? Without oil based safety belts? Without oil based airbags? You can't manufacture an airbag out of wood. Not that I can think of..

The problem is that present talk about oil dependency is generally tackled from the, admittedly, equally important viewpoint of global warming. Yet, it has as a consequence that the two subjects of global warming and peak oil get dangerously confused. Governments make it appear that oil is just about transport and carbondioxide emissions, so if you would be able to solve that problem (quod non), all need to worry is gone. But that's not the case. That confusion is a very serious problem in itself.

railways are being abandoned and farms are being abandoned. I don't see the EU make things better either .

That's exactly true. What we need is a EU policy of vehement support of small scale agriculture, but the opposite is the case.
Didn't know that Swedish railways are being abandoned, though. That bodes ill too...

[MonteQuest]

Is the situation so serious as most people that have read about Peak Oil puts it? I know that you can't really calculate what's going to happen in the future but would an oil crash make the world economy collapse? Since many experts does believe so why doesn't the governments react sooner instead of when it's too late?

Many believe they are. Iraq and Afghanistan, and now Iran. Resource wars to secure a stable supply of oil seems to be the primary solution, IMHO.

I know that the most things in this world is about money but wouldn't they lose money and power if we suffered an oil-crash as serious as experts put it?

Read about the dollar hegemony and Iraq and Iran selling oil in euros.

I'm new to this forum and this is my very first post, I've read alot about Peak Oil cause I find it very interesting but something tells me that I might worry too much since 100% of the people I've talked to online and of my friends have really no idea how a oil-crash would affect us, and maybe we are all worrying too much?

Read my post Post peakoil: The Slow Decline

Wouldn't the media have picked this story up and made a biggie out of it if the situation is as critical as it seems like when you read about it.

And disprupt the entire economy in an instant? And not when most of the major media outlets are controlled by interests that know how critical it is. Besides, the assert inertia and cultural direction is huge. It's like trying to turn the Titanic on a dime. If the whole modern world economy is based upon a false premise (infinite exponential growth in a finite world) just what would the govt tells us?

[mrobert]

Actually, there is plenty of oil, gas and coal to last us at least 200 years without worries.
When TSHTF, 80% will be caught in front of the tsunami and vanish, and offcourse, the remaining 20% will get along just fine for another 200 years driving SUV's, etc.

The questions boils down to a simple one :
Do you believe in PeakOil and prepare for it, and outlive it? Or join the "other 80%" ... it's up to you.

We don't need TV shows, books, articles or websites to explain us a very simple thing : We are addicted to resource that has a finite quantity and can't be regenerated. It will run out someday.

You can eradicate polution, replant forests, solve other problems easily ... but we can't plant oil, or pass some laws that will make more of the good stuff to come.

I drive a very fuel efficient car, I bought all electric things to be as power efficient as possible. I save a lot of money which I can use for something else.