[Fruitcake]

There's no news here, just rearranging stats.

The april 2003 editorial in Energyinstitute concludes that of global consumption of 74 mb/d, about 21 mb/d - or 29 % - comes from countries in decline in 2002 (Based on BP handbook '03 - http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=921).

Imitating this approach on new BP 2003 data (handbook '04) gives following:

To countries in decline, I've included US, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Denmark, Norway, Romania, UK, Oman, Yemen, Congo, Egypt, Gabon, Tunesia, Australia and Indonesia. Combined they have a production of 22.265.000 b/d. If accumulated global production is 76.777.000 b/d in 2003, then the percentage in decline is:
22.265.000*100/ 76.777.000 = 28,99 %.

According to BP, Mexico has an increase in 2003 of 5,8 % over 2002. China's increase is about 1,5 %. Aspo has a peak for both Mexico & China in 2003 (http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/WORLD_SUMMARY_html.htm). Mexico and China combined add 7.185.000 b/d, giving a overall from declining countries of 29.450.000 b/d. Still using a global production of 76 mb/d, this gives a decline precentage of 29.450.000*100/ 76.777.000 = 38.35 %. If global consumption is set a bit higher, at 81 mb/d, this gives a percentage of 36.35 % (or my maths is cheating me?).

I think it's quite interesting that Aspo's approach and Chris Skrewbowski's article 'Megaprojects' arrive at more or less the same date.

Kind regards
X

[smiley]

Your link doesn't work. But I think I know what you're getting at.

The combined loss of production in the post peak countries in 2003 was 1.109 mbd; in 2000 it was 0.345 mbd and in 1997 it was 0.071 bpd.

data:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2003 -1109 x1000 bd
USA, Indonesia, Egypt, Gabon, Argentina, Venezuela Colombia, Congo, UK, Australia, Norway, Oman
-172, -109, -3, -55, -15, -231, -37, -16, -218, -107, -69, -77

2000 -345 x1000 bd
USA, Indonesia, Egypt, Gabon, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, Congo, UK
+2, +48, -46, -13, -28, -127, +73, -18 -236

1997 -71 x1000 bd
USA, Indonesia, Egypt, Gabon
-26, -23, -21, -1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2003 was an exceptional year since OPEC turned on its spare capacity. Normally the world production doesn't grow faster than 2 mbd per year. Now we need 1 mbd to compensate for depletion, which leaves only 1 mbd growth. So we're indeed very close to peaking.

But the exact moment depends on when the other countries are going to peak. I think the estimate for Mexico is right. The latest Pemex data indeed seem to confirm that Mexico has peaked late 2003.

Anyway, the real peak doesn't even matter that much. What matters is that the depletion rate has become so high that we need something short of a miracle to accommodate the growing world demand in 2004.

[Pops]

Thanks for helping out on the Basics Smiley.