[Plantagenet]

Does anybody else here miss the old OIL DRUM site?

The guy who put it together was Nate Hagens and he shut down the Oil Drum several years when it became apparent that the world wasn't going to reach Peak Oil anytime soon.

Nowadays Nate Hagens has got a website and he is running a podcast---they are both called "The Great Simplification"

thegreatsimplification.com

His most recent podcast was really good. He had Art Berman on (another fixture from the old OIL DRUM days) along with two European experts to talk together about some issues related to the ongoing "Green Transition" away from fossil fuels and to renewable energy.

Nate Hagens and his podcast guests look at things from the LIMITS TO GROWTH perspective, and they pointed out several critical problems the world is heading right for.

1. They identify several commodities, including lithium, that don't have large enough reserves to build as many EVs as the "Green Revolution" calls for. Same thing for solar cells. They think there is a LIMIT TO GROWTH as to how many EVs and solar cells can actually be manufactured.

2. They point out that about 25% of oil use in Europe is by cars, while in the US that number rises to about 43%. That means that even if every ICE car was immediately transformed into an EV, we'd still be using over the half the fossil fuels we are now. Combine that with the larger carbon emissions emitted whenever a new EV is built, and we've still got a problem with CO2 emissions and global warming.

3. They question the entire premise of the changeover from ICE cars to EVs. They think it would make a lot more sense if, instead of shifting people into EVs that are even bigger and heavier then their current ICE cars, people were instead encouraged to downsize to much smaller cars and even to motorbikes and motor scooters and to use electric buses, trams and trains.

AND

4. They still talk about coming decreases in oil production

So...for anybody who misses the old OLD DRUM....check out the GREAT SIMPLICATION.



Cheers!

[AdamB]

Does anybody else here miss the old OIL DRUM site?

Yes. Never have so many been so wrong so often...and after I got banned I couldn't even laugh my way through their demise when everyone else realized what I had told them 6 or 7 years earlier.

The guy who put it together was Nate Hagens and he shut down the Oil Drum several years when it became apparent that the world wasn't going to reach Peak Oil anytime soon.

How would you like being proven an oil and gas halfwit anad then carry that dead albatross around your neck forever more? Even Savinar knew to flee sooner than Nate did.

4. They still talk about coming decreases in oil production

It has to happen some decade, in this century hopefully, right?

So...for anybody who misses the old OLD DRUM....check out the GREAT SIMPLICATION.

It isn't the Old Drum, doesn't have near the dogma based requirements yet. And Nate seems to be VERY careful about avoiding the near religious claptrap that permeated TODs faith based perspective.

[theluckycountry]

Good site, thanks. They expertly point out all the flaws in the "EV revolution" a 1.2% revolution that's dying in the ass now that the subsidies have been pulled. Oh it's still good in California though, the land where they will send you to prison if you misgender your children A lot of popcorn will be sold worldwide when the 'Big One' comes to sort out that place.

[Newfie]

Did not visit the site but those points you noted are all valid. I applaud his persistence in trying to educate folks.

in MY opinion it has become obvious humanity is in a clear state of denial and befuddlement. I suspect/fear that we will do precious little until far to late and then panic and do a lot of the wrong stuff.

I no longer find any solace in trying and to convince people. I am too old to worry too much about the future for myself. Kids won’t listen. So I go about enjoying my time, except when I am pissed about the above, which is most of the time.

[Plantagenet]

I no longer find any solace in trying and to convince people.

Me either. It's hard enough just keeping up with the latest news myself, so much crazy stuff is going on out there in the world. I'm more in the observe it and laugh at it all mode.

I am too old to worry too much about the future for myself. Kids won’t listen. So I go about enjoying my time, except when I am pissed about the above, which is most of the time.

Those are words of wisdom there.....



Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

The problem is the people themselves, they want to believe the lies. They don't have the fortitude or the will to make the changes necessary to break out of the corrupt system.

[AdamB]

The problem is the people themselves, they want to believe the lies. They don't have the fortitude or the will to make the changes necessary to break out of the corrupt system.

Indeed. They just keep buying gold and burying it in the backyard as though their fiscal ignorance will save them.

[theluckycountry]

I have downloaded a few of those podcast now and some interesting data comes out of them. Fracking has an EROEI of 2:1, so once you take out the profits of the various companies involved and interest on the loans there is basically nothing left to flow on to society as a whole. Not surprisingly the major input is diesel, so if the cost of oil goes up they don't become more profitable, they just keep pace.

Another far more interesting point raised was that in a typical barrel of oil the major fractions are transport fuel.

Petroleum refineries in the United States produce about 19 to 20 gallons of motor gasoline and 11 to 12 gallons of ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel oil (most of which is sold as diesel fuel and in several states as heating oil) from one 42-gallon barrel of crude oil.

https://cheraghdaily.org/how-much-diese ... sel%20fuel.
https://petroleumservicecompany.com/blo ... breakdown/

Why is this interesting? Well oil has a lot of important uses besides powering the world's fleets of cars and trucks, so they will keep refining it in the years to come. What will they do with these huge fractions that go to powering our cars if we go Green? Pour it out on the ground? It doesn't have any other use, you can't make pharmaceuticals or plastic bags out of it. You can't pave roads with it.

Basically if you stop refining oil to run cars and trucks it's impractical to refine oil for anything else. Shale oil is particularly vulnerable here because it's so light compared to other conventional oils.

Oil coming from the major shale plays in the U.S. is light and sweet, while a lot of oil coming from OPEC is medium or heavy, and often sour... Lighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that. But refiners have a tidal wave of light sweet oil on their hands, perhaps too much.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ecret.html

You see the problem here don't you. If there ever was a mass transition to the EV then the oil industry as a whole becomes totally inefficient and also has a massive waste problem on it's hands having to deal with the vast volumes of unwanted gasoline.

[jato0072]

If there ever was a mass transition to the EV

Impossible. The Great Simplification guest Dr. Simon Michaux has already done the homework.

Dr. Simon Michaux: “Minerals and Materials Blindness” | The Great Simplification #19

My commentary: Gasoline and every other fossil fuel will be burned until its supply is exhausted.

[AdamB]

If there ever was a mass transition to the EV

Impossible. The Great Simplification guest Dr. Simon Michaux has already done the homework.

His explanation of the ability or inability to mine and use certain minerals for places like the EU or US to build out EVs at the rate required to fulfill their claims is quite substantial.

But his research into peak oil, published in one of his earlier works, indicates he couldn't even be bothered to understand that topic, admittedly oil and gas resources aren't his area of expertise, but any scientist needs to understand the quality of their research material, and be doubly careful when reaching outside their area of expertise, and Simon missed that one badly in the oily arena.

He has also defended 9/11 Truther angles on Facebook, so while his intellect certainly appears substantial, he might be as big a sucker for nonsense as was Colin Campbell, Hall or Deffeyes, also men of substantial intellect, AND with experience in the required fields.

So what is needed next is someone to check the work, to make sure it isn't of the same quality as his peak oil knowledge.

[theluckycountry]

If there ever was a mass transition to the EV

Impossible. The Great Simplification guest Dr. Simon Michaux has already done the homework...

My commentary: Gasoline and every other fossil fuel will be burned until its supply is exhausted.

Yes I heartily agree, not for the reasons of the necessity to produce gasoline as referenced above, simply because humankind always depletes it's resource base until an ultimate collapse occurs. I'm sure the elites have a plan to get us out of our cars but it will be like pulling teeth. Adams two junker EV's will be in the crusher long before the petrol pumps run dry. Perhaps when the batteries get too degraded for driving he can use it to recharge his mobile phone during the inevitable blackouts down there?

[AdamB]

Adams two junker EV's will be in the crusher long before the petrol pumps run dry. Perhaps when the batteries get too degraded for driving he can use it to recharge his mobile phone during the inevitable blackouts down there?

Well, if I were to extrapolate the state of charge degradation across the 9 years I've owned the older one and the 2-1/2 years I've owned the newer one into the future, I would estimate that I have approximately an additional 60 years before the battery in the former is unserviceable, and even longer than that on the latter. So I'll be dead, and it won't really matter.

Far more likely I would wear out the engines on one of the 3 ICE machines, but 2 of them are substantially older than the EVs, and one of them specializes in long range walkabouts, and will continue to do so until I leave it dead by the side of the road on some trip or another. No harm no foul, it was bought for just this purpose. North Rim of Grand Canyon coming up before the July 4th holiday. UP of Michigan perhaps over July 4th holiday.

[ralfy]

Related:

"Peak mining & implications for natural resource management - Simon Michaux"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

[theluckycountry]

Related:

"Peak mining & implications for natural resource management - Simon Michaux"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

A good watch.

Mining consumes 10% of the world's energy, I didn't think it would be that high!
It empowers everything else, supplies raw materials for Everything.
Waste dump mathematics: 300,000 tons of waste material for every ton of Gold mined.

The section on nuclear infrastructure is particularly interesting