In the past decade this website has gone from being full of people believing almost universally in Peak Oil due to resource limits (a belief mostly destroyed by the torrent of new production released by a decade of high prices and the shale oil revolution ) to believing in Peak Demand due to Climate Change initiatives rewriting business as usual. With many believing demand already peaked in 2020 due to COVID-19 accelerating this global transition to the way we work and live.
Now we are seeing a rebound in oil demand that will likely exceed the 2020 peak next year and accompanying this resurgent demand is a return of high prices in oil, gas and coal. Many market analysts are predicting record high prices for oil next year and for many years to come due to this under investment in oil and gas and coal while demand continues to increase. By backing the IEA/Paris Accord/ESG narrative, Liberal democratic governments have created a self fulfilling climate where fear of stranded assets and years of litigation has caused big oil and coal producers and investment bankers to shun investment in new production. And low investment is going to lead us back to Peak Oil as natural production decline isn’t waiting for the energy transition to catch up. Should make for interesting mid-terms for Joe and the Dems.
Traders once again are betting that the U.S. oil benchmark will surge above $100 a barrel, from a recent $82, as early as December. U.S. crude, known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, is up 10% this month, and 70% this year, but it hasn’t hit $100 since the oil crash of 2014. Wagers across the Atlantic are even more aggressive. Some traders are betting Brent crude, the global benchmark, will hit a record high of $200 a barrel by December 2022, according to data from provider QuikStrike.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets ... _lead_pos2
Total global investment into oil and gas exploration and production fell by 34% last year to $261 billion, the lowest since 2004, according to a December report from the International Energy Forum and the Boston Consulting Group.
Annual spending at that level won’t satisfy the world’s energy needs in the coming years, the report said. Annual investment needs to be 25% higher over the next three years to stave off a supply crisis, the report estimated. That’s much faster than the pace of recovery after the 2014 to 2016 slump. The coming year will be crucial in determining whether the industry is capable of rising to that challenge.The IEF report estimated that upstream investment would drop by another 20% in 2021, but prices have already rallied since it was published last year and “capex is likely to be higher than our initial estimates,” said Jamie Webster, senior director at the Boston Consulting Group.[/b]
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/1/29 ... t-declines