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Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 12:45:05


Controversial research by the University of Edinburgh suggests UK oil and gas industries are entering the last decade of production. Julian Turner talks to the author of the report, Prof. Roy Thompson, about resource depletion, hard data vs industry optimism, and the transition to the clean economy. The Edinburgh Geological Society was formed in 1834 with the aim of stimulating public interest in geology. Issue 62 of its magazine, The Edinburgh Geologist, published in October, certainly did that. It contained a report by Edinburgh University that predicted the UK’s oil and gas reserves could run out in as little as a decade, that fracking is not viable in Scotland and barely feasible in the UK thanks to a dearth of suitable geology, and that the UK will soon have to import all its oil and gas. Professor Roy Thompson of Edinburgh University’s School


Twilight years: is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 12:49:36

This in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. The French would never stand for it, because they run their perfume that way. Nor will the UK import oil. There is no excess, even Norway is running down.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 12:58:05

pstarr wrote:This in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. The French would never stand for it, because they run their perfume that way. Nor will the UK import oil. There is no excess, even Norway is running down.


You wouldn't even know about the shale if the US hadn't rearranged the global business model around pricing it..using source rock production.

And this title is a crock, because it does ignore the Bowland. The UK can probably do the same thing the US did, so, like I said, the conclusion in the title is a crock. The UK might being entering its last decade.....IF THAT IS WHAT IT DECIDES TO DO....because it can certainly choose to do something else.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 13:03:05

New threads are intended to spark discussion. I agree with the OP, just chose to put some historical perspective on it. Just because you don't like the tenor of my contribution is no reason to make a fool of yourself.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 20:13:53

The North Sea is seriously depleated at this point because of the pumpas fast as you can. If they had limited exploitation to internal consumption rate, as any industrialized power could have in the 1990’s they would just now be starting to i port again and would have decades of cushion to live on.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 22:52:13

The Bowland Shale is primarily a gas play. It is the source rock where oil and gas matured before migration to conventional fields in the East Midlands and the Irish Sea. East MIdlands was where UK's first oil field was discovered in east Derbyshire in 1919.
Image
And it is here, in this darling English Countryside that Cuadrilla wants to drive its fracting trucks. So how likely is the development? Fracking has been on hold in the UK since 2011 when two small earth tremors were blamed on exploratory operations by Cuadrilla at another site near Blackpool.

Cuadrilla was given the go-ahead by the government last year to resume drilling, reflecting ministers’ hopes of replicating the shale revolution that has cut US gas prices and bolstered American energy security.
Mike Stephenson, director of science and technology at the BGS, told a recent conference there was little dispute that “significant” shale resources existed in the north of England.

However, he acknowledged that areas from which gas could be recovered were “very patchy” and the organic composition of the shale — derived mainly from decayed wood — was likely to be less productive than the planktonic marine material more prevalent in US shale.

And it is all about gas. Not much help with collapsing oil production in the North Sea
Financial Times; Drilling begins on first UK shale well for six years
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 07:46:29

Natural gas is vital to the UK economy. During the boom in the 1990's when the North Sea was robustly growing the vast quantities of associated gas lead to some very foolish decisions about shutting down older nuclear plants and all the coal plants and replacing them with natural gas, some for baseload and some for peaking.

Then the UK area of the North Sea peaked out because they had been drilling as fast and as hard as they could instead of at a more measured pace. As a consequence their associated gas fell off a cliff and their pure gas wells were not able to make up the shortfall. Now the UK has to import gas from the continent through the same pipelines they originally built to export gas when they had an abundant supply.

The incentive to develop tight gas formations is tremendous in the UK and I am sort of surprised they held out for six years before granting permission once again in the last couple years. There is also a big push in the background for underground coal gasification. That has even more incentive because it eliminates three of the largest complaints about coal burning. Those complaints being mining waste, coal ash, and danger to miners. Underground coal gasification goes first after the deepest and least accessible by standard means coal beds.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 11:58:34

Are we REALLY going to pretend that economics, re oil prices won't affect oil fracking in places like Europe where, thus far, they've declined to do it?

Because, I think if the cost of oil gets high enough due to supply/demand factors such as the wails about not enough replacement oil continuing even if oil climbs to, say, $150 or so on a sustained basis -- then governments will be a lot more enticed (or even compelled) by the revenue streams they're likely to get from allowing such oil fracking. And at such prices (or maybe much higher), it's not like the oilcos can't afford to spend a few bucks a barrel on extra environmental / cleanup operations, now is it?

Unless oil prices remain relatively low over time due to supply being able to meet demand overall, the frackable oil will be fracked. The main issue is what prices will be required. (And that might well hinge on overall economic and demographic conditions, of course. Ironically, the expenses from AGW expenses could well help feed the demand for such revenue.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 18:16:48

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Are we REALLY going to pretend that economics, re oil prices won't affect oil fracking in places like Europe where, thus far, they've declined to do it?

Because, I think if the cost of oil gets high enough due to supply/demand factors such as the wails about not enough replacement oil continuing even if oil climbs to, say, $150 or so on a sustained basis -- then governments will be a lot more enticed (or even compelled) by the revenue streams they're likely to get from allowing such oil fracking. And at such prices (or maybe much higher), it's not like the oilcos can't afford to spend a few bucks a barrel on extra environmental / cleanup operations, now is it?

Unless oil prices remain relatively low over time due to supply being able to meet demand overall, the frackable oil will be fracked. The main issue is what prices will be required. (And that might well hinge on overall economic and demographic conditions, of course. Ironically, the expenses from AGW expenses could well help feed the demand for such revenue.)


That is exactly why I took the pragmatic position back in 2005 that all National Parks and ANWAR should be explored for oil ASAP so that if resources were discovered they would be extracted while environmental concerns were still taken into account. It has always been my position that when prices get high enough those areas will be explored, but if people are desperate for supply due to peak oil the environmental controls will be 'set aside' or 'suspended for the duration of the emergency' or other lawyer words. Those words effectively mean to heck with the environment we need that petroleum badly enough to say 'too bad so sad' to anything we make extinct in the process.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 19:45:33

Tanaka, I think many have a false impression, that certain oil is offlimits due to environmental concerns. It's oil company propaganda, meant protect investment. I am pretty sure that is the re the eastern extent of the Destin Dome. Also ANWR. There's no proven reserves there.
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