BahamasEd wrote:Yes, and by the EIA we are still producing more then we are using so we can't start working off the glut until then balance.
So by their forecast it should balance sometime next year and I would think it would take another year to work down the glut so prices can start to rise again, maybe sometime in 2018.
But the EIA predicts the future about as well as I do.
So I stand by my statement, Oil is not cheap yet, it needs do drop back down into the $20s to clear the market. I think that if the price stays between $45 to $60 then production will continue to out pace consumption
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repo ... al_oil.cfm
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
I think the debt crisis and peak oil are twoonlooker wrote:Call me if you wish biased but I read into Tanada's expert post a pessimistic outlook in the near term future. Basically, Shale/fracking cannot increase substantially their production regardless it seems of price. Even more so a price increase will be detrimental to all consumers big and small. In my poll I asked can the US economy deal with over $80 dollars per barrel oil? I do not think it can. Again my take is the Economy both here and abroad has been slowly weakening in a fundamental sense. Even as some speak of efficiency gains I see world economies that over time became more complex and more reliant on oil over all. On top of this we have the edifice of our debt based economies becoming even more distorted by increasing debt loads taken on. One has to expect some sort of correction at some time, that is the history of fiat money and debt accumulation. So in this scenario of razor thin margins to keep things humming we are now faced with an oil industry unable to find easy cheap oil with a favorable EROEI and economies unable to withstand prices beyond 80 or 100 dollars.
onlooker wrote:Call me if you wish biased but I read into Tanada's expert post a pessimistic outlook in the near term future. Basically, Shale/fracking cannot increase substantially their production regardless it seems of price. Even more so a price increase will be detrimental to all consumers big and small. In my poll I asked can the US economy deal with over $80 dollars per barrel oil? I do not think it can. Again my take is the Economy both here and abroad has been slowly weakening in a fundamental sense. Even as some speak of efficiency gains I see world economies that over time became more complex and more reliant on oil over all. On top of this we have the edifice of our debt based economies becoming even more distorted by increasing debt loads taken on. One has to expect some sort of correction at some time, that is the history of fiat money and debt accumulation. So in this scenario of razor thin margins to keep things humming we are now faced with an oil industry unable to find easy cheap oil with a favorable EROEI and economies unable to withstand prices beyond 80 or 100 dollars.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
But I do think they will be drilling and fracking many more wells than they were in August 2016 by the end of 2017. We have to wait and see to learn how much oil that adds to the USA market and world economy, my hope is they will be drilling enough to put USA on a plateau for a few years.
rockdoc123 wrote:
So...a lesson in demand/supply for the slow kids in the class.
rockdoc123 wrote: Demand is increasing regardless of what the dolts on this site seem to believe.
Observerbrb wrote:The spike in 2008 doesn't invalidate the ETP model - We are hitting a downtrend in oil prices since two-three years ago. That wasn't true in 2008.
ennui2 wrote:Observerbrb wrote:The spike in 2008 doesn't invalidate the ETP model - We are hitting a downtrend in oil prices since two-three years ago. That wasn't true in 2008.
I still don't follow your logic. There was a downtrend in oil in the 90s too. Was ETP valid in the 90s? If so, why did oil prices then go up? ETP only makes sense when it's used as a tool to make it sound all "scary" that oil is currently cheap.
SumYunGai wrote:
The Etp maximum price curve has descended over time. In the graph above you can see how the 2008 oil spike relates to the Etp maximum price curve, which was much higher then than it is now. The oil price could not be maintained above the Etp maximum price curve, just like now. So the Etp model is very consistent, even when looking at the past. See?
ROCKMAN wrote:"If so, why did oil prices then go up?". Response: "Three words: Cost of production." The price of oil HAS NEVER been determined by how much it cost to drill the wells.
So we in America could afford $70 eau d'bakken. Egypt could not. Most other economies in the world could not. But $70 is necessary to continue with new drilling and old wells are in steep decline.
onlooker wrote:No that is not my understanding of ETP. Only that it states that the production profile will be interacting with the economic status. This could then lead to what Economists term Stagflation. Meaning a period whereby the Economy is running very sluggish while prices inflate. So, unless somebody here who qualifies as an expert like Rockman or Tanada corrects me I stand by this progression of both falling production and falling demand punctuated by periods of the price skyrocketing as demand becomes inflexible due to the nature of the pivotal role of Oil and does not decline further for awhile.ennui2 wrote:If you support ETP then the price simply can't go up. It can only go down, in lock-step with the economy.
Onlooker and Observerbrb, sounds like you have 2 different understandings of what the ETP model is saying about the direction of oil prices. Observerbrb said ETP says prices will never pass $60 again. Onlooker says prices will inflate with periods of skyrocketing prices. Based on that graph Whatever posted and comments made by shortonoil, it sounds like Observerbrb's interpretation of the ETP model is correct. Shortonoil does not seem to allow for skyrocketing prices from what I've seen. Not that I think that is going to happen in reality. As far as what will actually happen, I think we will see prices rise again.Observerbrb wrote:The ETP doesn't say anything about the oil volume produced or demand by the way, (shortonoil said that it has to go up to balance the net-energy losses... at least as long as oil producers can), it says that Oil prices are going down and will never recover its previous levels. For example, they will never go back to 60 USD (Unless a systemic and a fast shock occurs... then it will quickly adjust to its previous levels)
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