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Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Pops » Sat 01 Oct 2011, 12:36:42

I’ve never had much time for “peak oil” (the notion held with religious conviction by many on the left here, that world oil production either has or is about to top out – and will soon slide, plunging the world’s energy economies into disarray and traumatic change.) In fact there’s plenty of oil, as witness the vast new North Dakota oil shale fields, with the constraints as always being the costs of recovery. Oil “shortages” are contrivances by the oil companies and allied brokers and middlemen to run up the price.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/09/30/ ... ello-glut/

Yergin really got the ostriches shakin' their tail feathers!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 19:57:44

Looks like the flood oil from the 2001 anglo-american invasion of the middle east oil fields is continuing to swell, just as the cornies predicted. They'll be plenty more increasing oil supply for the forseeable future.
Even with the loss of Libya's 1.55Mbpd , 2011 is comfortably set to break the records set by 2010's all time high records for oil supply.

We'll have to give 2011 it's own thread of course, just like we did for 2010s records.
I take it you'll again be needing a casual outsider (me) to the peakoil forum to start this new thread when the time comes, since its against the peakoil religion to monitor the IEA website for the latest oil supply figures - the IEA supply figures might continue their years long trend of falsifying the peak oil is now myth, and you can't have that.

http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12oct11full.pdf

Well either me or oilfinder will do it if you don't.

2010 average 87.45 Mbpd
2011 -1st quarter 88.40 Mbpd
2011-2nd quarter 87.53 Mbpd
2011-3rd quarter 88.68 Mbpd
It very unlikely the 4th quarter will fall so much to bring the 2011 average below 87.45Mbpd.

Yet another win for the cornies. Yet another fail for the doomers.
Oh and you can try subtracting OPEC NGLs, and bio if you like from the figures, but it won't help. 2011 will still hold the new all-time records.
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 20:12:10

meemoe_uk wrote:http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12oct11full.pdf

Well either me or oilfinder will do it if you don't.

2010 average 87.45 Mbpd
2011 -1st quarter 88.40 Mbpd
2011-2nd quarter 87.53 Mbpd
2011-3rd quarter 88.68 Mbpd
It very unlikely the 4th quarter will fall so much to bring the 2011 average below 87.45Mbpd.

Yet another win for the cornies. Yet another fail for the doomers.
Oh and you can try subtracting OPEC NGLs, and bio if you like from the figures, but it won't help. 2011 will still hold the new all-time records.

+1.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 20:45:00

meemoe_uk wrote:Yet another win for the cornies. Yet another fail for the doomers.
Oh and you can try subtracting OPEC NGLs, and bio if you like from the figures, but it won't help. 2011 will still hold the new all-time records.


Meemoe, this is terrible. Do you realize how depressing this news will be when it percolates out into the peak oil blogosphere? At this very moment bloggers of all shapes and sizes are congregating in Washington, holding press conferences, howling at the moon, cowering in fear when crossing open ground between important meet and greets lest they be struck by falling objects, and then you come out with this? Yet more oil being produced? More hydrocarbons, more fuels, more BAU?
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 21:50:17

Another win for the cornies...

2009 = 23bbl/person/yr * $55/bbl = $1,265
2010 = 23bbl/person/yr * $70/bbl = $1,610
2011 = 23bbl/person/yr * $100/bbl = $2,300

So $2,500 per year increase in expenses for the average household in just 2 years - while average incomes are falling...


If you cornies keep winning we are doomed.



http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... TOTUSA&f=W
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/infl ... _table.asp
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 22:01:41

Pops wrote:Another win for the cornies...

2009 = 23bbl/person/yr * $55/bbl = $1,265
2010 = 23bbl/person/yr * $70/bbl = $1,610
2011 = 23bbl/person/yr * $100/bbl = $2,300

So $2,500 per year increase in expenses for the average household in just 2 years - while average incomes are falling...


If you cornies keep winning we are doomed.


According to your references, crude was more expensive in 1980 than it is in 2011.

If peak oil over the past 6 years keeps decreasing the real price of crude, soon it will be free!
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby peripato » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 22:27:37

Pops wrote:Another win for the cornies...

2009 = 23bbl/person/yr * $55/bbl = $1,265
2010 = 23bbl/person/yr * $70/bbl = $1,610
2011 = 23bbl/person/yr * $100/bbl = $2,300

So $2,500 per year increase in expenses for the average household in just 2 years - while average incomes are falling...


If you cornies keep winning we are doomed.



http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... TOTUSA&f=W
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/infl ... _table.asp

In their view any sort of growth is good, even if it's metastasising.
"Don’t panic, Wall St. is safe!"
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 23:16:57

The problem is that globally consumption has been outstripping demand, mitigated only through non-conventional sources which leads to, among other problems, higher food prices:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 02 Nov 2011, 23:39:20

meemoe_uk wrote:Looks like the flood oil from the 2001 anglo-american invasion of the middle east oil fields is continuing to swell, just as the cornies predicted. They'll be plenty more increasing oil supply for the forseeable future.
We just needed to eliminate those pesky "above ground factors". We no longer have to worry about the "Export Land Model" - brown-skinned natives "sitting on" "our petroleum lifeline" and squandering the revenues to improve their lives. Now they need to spend the revenues paying Bechtel and Halliburton to "reconstruct" the damage from "humanitarian bombing" and buy F16s and General Motors tanks to replace their destroyed equipment.
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 00:58:05

Pops wrote:Another win for the cornies...

2009 = 23bbl/person/yr * $55/bbl = $1,265
2010 = 23bbl/person/yr * $70/bbl = $1,610
2011 = 23bbl/person/yr * $100/bbl = $2,300

Where are you getting the 23bbl/person/year?

For 2010, using a world population of 6.9 billion and world oil production/consumption of 32 billion barrels I get about 0.2156 bbl/person/year.

For the US it would be higher, but we were talking about world production/consumption, weren't we.

[smilie=dontknow.gif]

EDIT: And, it should be noted, people (consumers) don't really pay for "oil," they pay for gasoline or diesel. If you wanted to do this you should really look at average gasoline consumption/year * average gasoline price per year.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 10:02:36

US per capita consumption (2008): 22.6 bbl/yr
EIA via http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum

But you're right, calculating the increased burden on the consumer from crude oil prices alone misses the mark-up that "manufacturers" certainly add to the base price of inputs. So yeah, the hit to the consumer is probably greater than my quick sketch indicates.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 12:06:32

OilFinder2 wrote:For 2010, using a world population of 6.9 billion and world oil production/consumption of 32 billion barrels I get about 0.2156 bbl/person/year.

I get 1/0.2156 .
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby AdTheNad » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 12:17:31

meemoe_uk wrote:2010 average 87.45 Mbpd
2011 -1st quarter 88.40 Mbpd
2011-2nd quarter 87.53 Mbpd
2011-3rd quarter 88.68 Mbpd
It very unlikely the 4th quarter will fall so much to bring the 2011 average below 87.45Mbpd.

Yet another win for the cornies. Yet another fail for the doomers.
Oh and you can try subtracting OPEC NGLs, and bio if you like from the figures, but it won't help. 2011 will still hold the new all-time records.

What's the comparison of net energy in that oil?
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 12:47:02

Glad to have you on aboard the cornie train pops! 8)
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 12:48:34

TheAntiDoomer wrote:Glad to have you on aboard the cornie train pops! 8)

Where's the dang irony button?
:-D
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Loki » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 13:43:21

In fact there’s plenty of oil, as witness the vast new North Dakota oil shale fields, with the constraints as always being the costs of recovery.

Oh gee, cost of recovery is the main constraint, huh? Shoot, if that's the only thing we have to worry about, I've heard there are plenty of hydrocarbons in Jupiter's atmosphere---peak oil my ass!

Alexander Cockburn has proven himself to be a less than reliable source on pretty much everything.
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby DomusAlbion » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 13:51:34

Pops wrote:
TheAntiDoomer wrote:Glad to have you on aboard the cornie train pops! 8)

Where's the dang irony button?
:-D


Indeed! Plus we need [Like], [Disagree] and [Boo] buttons. Note to Admin, please add promptly. :)
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby Cog » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 14:29:57

Meanwhile WTI oil prices are creeping up. $94.15/bbl Brent $111.22

A dead US economy and rising oil prices. I wonder how that will turn out.
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Re: Goodbye “Peak Oil” Hello Glut

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Thu 03 Nov 2011, 15:47:33

Oil shale doesn't have the same ring to it as light sweet crude :) I wonder what the difference is? Probably doesn't matter... and back in 2006 when I attended a Peak Oil conference and began to learn about peak oil everyone was estimating the top to be around 2015 so I'll be on my doomery way thank you very much!
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Glut Or Deficit: Where Are Oil Markets Headed?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Mar 2018, 15:12:25


A flurry of recent oil market forecasts have sent a lot of mixed messages about what to expect both in the near-term and over the next several years. Is U.S. shale about to flood the market, setting off another bust? Or is demand so strong that with the oil market already rapidly tightening, another price rally is in store? Obviously, nobody knows how to untangle the long list of variables that will ultimately decide what happens next, but the divergence in opinions is rather striking. By and large, the discrepancy is over the difference between the short-term and the medium-term. Surging U.S. shale production is keeping the market well supplied right now, but soaring demand and the lack of major conventional projects in the works will lead to a price spike somewhere down the line. Nevertheless, there is also disagreement over the immediate


Glut Or Deficit: Where Are Oil Markets Headed?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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