[raisinbran]

Believe it or not, peak oil is A RELIGION. Or something like it. Religion is really a pretty simple setup, pretty basic sequence, you know, like a football play.

1. Establish some principles. The more widely accepted, the better. The more sweeping, the more general, the better, since the follower has no real way of actually verifying it, hence they take it at face value.

Peak Oil: Say something like "according to the law and supply and demand..." or "oil underpins all economic activity in the U.S."

A Religion: "I have been sent by God, I have seen the spirit realm" or "Reptilia have been living in underground bases for hundreds of years, all throughout the world"

2. Make up some facts to support your principles. The more believable, the better. Try to make is as mathematical, scientific sounding as possible. Make up a plausible, logical story.

Peak Oil: Make some graphs based on data from dubious sources. The more official sounding the source, the better. For example, "According to the ASPO study, we use 87 million bpd worldwide". "US oil peaked in 1970." "World oil production has been plateuing for 6 months, according to the EIA data."

A religion: Make an interesting looking relic, perform some superhuman feat, make up a tale about the origin of mankind (think Mythology), make up a story about aliens in another dimension. "There is a spaceship behind Haley's Comet"

3. Draw a shocking, sensational conclusion from these facts.

Peak oil: "The world oil production rate has peaked." "The world economy is going to crash" "Life as we know it is over"

A Religion: "The spaceship behind the comet is going to come. We have to eat this poison, free ourselves of this mortal body, so that we can go in it." "The world is going to be over-run by armored, laser-equipped reptilian." "The world is going to be destroyed."

4. Get some prominent, educated people to lead the movement.

Peak oil: Matt Simmons, Mike Ruppert, James Schlesinger, oil company CEOs

A Religion: Kings, Popes, Preachers, Jim Jones,

And, bam! You got another cult. A tell-tale sign of a cultist is the absolute refusal to question their own strongly held positions. Another word for that is blind faith. Peak-oil seems to resonate best with "science" oriented folks. The simple notion that peak oil is "based on science" is enough for them, because "science" is based on "facts, analysis".

The problem with "science" in this world today is that anyone, ANYONE, can MAKE UP DATA and OMIT ACTUAL DATA, analyze it, and paint any picture they damn well please. That people seem to have blind faith in so-called science is too bad. They'll be fine as long as the scientists aren't lying.

Peak oil is on par with evolution, aliens, global warming, christian fundamentalism, basement cults, some conspiracy theories, etc. in that they all share this same faith-based structure.

But, I am real, you are real, and so there is a reality, an explanation to the world. Once being a peak oiler believer, through plenty of research and observation of recent events, I feel I am closer to this reality than before. Unfortunately, I don't think this is a receptive environment to new ideas, so I won't even bother talking about it.

The basic, fundamental problem with peak oil, although it is logical and plausible, is: It is too narrow in its consideration of world issues, based on faulty understanding of how the world works, and the source data is obviously manipulated.

[vision-master]

I thought it was a Cult?

Check this out!

Hopi Survival Kit)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Hopi Survival Kit - Chapter 6 - Prophecies Past and Present - Page 207/ 208.

Hopi Elders Quote:

Quote:
Let us take a look into the future through the eyes of our prophets. They say that along the way the industrialized world will have certain problems. Throughout the world people will be uncomfortable because of the changing times. The worldly woes people will be going through. People will have to make adjustments to fit themselves into new life styles and environments.

The industrialized nations will become careless in getting more of the resources they need out of the earth, oil, coal, etc. Believing all these things will last forever. Soon natural resources will be depleted. Fuel shortages will occur; industrial machinery will come to a standstill. The machinery used for planting, harvesting and transport will become useless. The white man (Bahanna) with all his intelligence and technology will not be able to repair the damage.

Now let us review our knowledge briefly, the centuries old prophecies which warned us what would happen when we forgot the principles of right and wrong in our behavior. We will see extraordinary events in Nature and Earth, including mankind: because modern man ignores the wisdom of ancient culture and religion. Modern man looks upon old wisdom and knowledge as dead, useless and no longer respected.

Modern man began to depend on the money system and no longer Mother Earth for food. According to prophecy when this happens Mother Earth will hide the nourishment which she provides because of the view that ancient food is poor man’s food.

When all food disappears modern man will try to correct his mistake, the conditions he caused upon the earth through his inventions. He will try to achieve some kind of method to heal the wound, but this will not be possible when we reach the point of no return.

Only through peace the survival of mankind and our planet Earth is possible. Only if we, the human race, are willing to change.

How would a simple stick man from the Hopi Nation come up with this?

[Quinny]

No its not, it's a short name for the time when oil reaches peak production. It's got nothing to do with religion.

[dunewalker]

Peak Oil is the opposite of a religion--it's the natural extension of pure logic. Only folks with religious minds have a problem digesting the concept of peak oil.

[Armageddon]

Peak Oil is the opposite of a religion--it's the natural extension of pure logic. Only folks with religious minds have a problem digesting the concept of peak oil.

I am a Christian and I believe in PO. What does PO have to do with believing in God ?

[Schmuto]

Count me in, whatever you want to label it.

[raisinbran]

Glad to know you believe peak oil, and you believe in God and Jesus.

In fact, I also am christian, and I believe the Bible. I am also a mechanical engineer. Sure I believe in science and logic. But I don't believe in peak oil, because peak oil is nothing more than a flawed belief system, belief in dubious "science, data, logic, and facts:"

By the way, a lot of this logic and science that you seem to cling to has been GIVEN TO YOU by Matt simmons, colin campell, oildrum, etc. It isn't like you did the original research. Like I did back in the day, you're merely quoting articles and analysis you've already read. It's not much different than quoting from a Bible.

[Ludi]

I don't believe in peak oil

You don't think there will EVER be a time at which the maximum oil is produced, after which there will be less oil produced?

[Ludi]

Dupe!

[raisinbran]

I will tell you that this world will be an utterly different place before that happens, and worrying about natural resources won't even matter.

What would you say if there is a plague, or nuclear war, or some crazy atrocity, and 3 billion people died? I think Peak oil will be a non-issue then, don't you think? Not trying to make predictions here, i'm just giving an example of what's really at stake. and it is so much more than OIL

[Plantagenet]

Believe it or not, peak oil is A RELIGION.

Actually, peak oil is a scientific theory published decades ago by a famous earth scientist.

Peak Oil has a testable hypothesis (i.e. that oil production peaks and then declines systematically), and in virtually every oilfield, oil province and oil-producing country outside of the ME so far the hypothesis has been proven true.

It remains to be seen if the peak oil theory will be proven again in the KSA and on a global basis. I bet it will be.

[Ludi]

it is so much more than OIL

Oh, ok. It's not so much you "don't believe in peak oil" as you think there are worse problems facing us than peak oil.

I agree.

But try phrasing it differently than "I don't believe in peak oil" because that makes you look like a doofus.

[raisinbran]

According to the International Energy Association all current oil production is declining at a composite 6.7% annual rate. New petroleum is of lower quality and reduce eroei, and comes from more difficult geography. There has been no new discovery trends to offset current production falloffs.

Hey Thanks for letting me know what the International Energy Association says! I mean, they are a pretty credible bunch of folks, afterall. How would I ever know any of that information on my own? That put a monkey wrench in my whole argument!

oh, wait...

[raisinbran]

it is so much more than OIL

Oh, ok. It's not so much you "don't believe in peak oil" as you think there are worse problems facing us than peak oil.

I agree.

But try phrasing it differently than "I don't believe in peak oil" because that makes you look like a doofus.

Why does it?

If I told you I don't believe global-warming to be a fact of science, would that also make me sound stupid?

peak oil is code for [a set of principles + some data + conclusions drawn]

I don't believe in all the principles, nor do I trust the relevant data, like what pstarr just gave.

I don't believe that supply and demand is the driving force of the U.S. economy. Don't give me this crap about "oh, did you go to high school? I learned it there" I know you did. Sure supply and demand makes sense, is plausible, mathematically sound and logical. But IS THAT WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING? Just like string theory, you know.

Peak oil, IS THAT REALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING, even today? The only way YOU can actually verify it is by RESEARCHING the data. What if the data is manipulated? Well you're out of luck. Looks like you'll have to rely on good ole' IEA, EIA, ASPO, mike ruppert, matt simmons for your answers. Hell I don't even know them personally, you probably don't either.

Don't get me wrong. There is logic, science, and a plausible explanation to the world and what IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. It is also possible to find it by research, at least the surface of it. You just won't find it in peak oil.

[vision-master]

Have we met before raisinbrain?

[mos6507]

I don't believe in all the principles, nor do I trust the relevant data, like what pstarr just gave.

Then why are you here?

[Ludi]

If I told you I don't believe global-warming to be a fact of science, would that also make me sound stupid?

Yes, you would sound stupid to me.

Peak oil, IS THAT REALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING, even today?

We won't know it has happened until after the fact.

So your question - "is that really what is happening" isn't relevant to me, particularly.