[Plantagenet]

US oil output on track to hit a record in 2018

u-s-oil-output-seen-rising-to-record-in-2018-amid-shale-revival

Pretty amazing numbers predicted for TOS production. The oil production from the Eagle Ford shale in Texas just keeps growing and growing.

We're on the verge of surpassing the 1970 previous "peak" in US oil production......Hubbert never dreamed that almost half a century after he called a "peak" in US oil production......the US would be surpassing the 1970 oil production record.

[Plantagenet]

Hubbert never dreamed you would refer to his favorite down-time beverage Kentucky Bourbon as petroleum.

The definition of oil was officially changed back in the Obama administration to include things like condensates and palm oil and ethanol made from corn. I posted about it here when it happened---you must've missed it?

According to Federal law, its all oil now.

Cheers!

[coffeeguyzz]

Pstarr
No disrespect intended, sincerely, but ... after near 25 thousand posts over a!most a decade and a half ... don't you ever get tired of being wrong?

[kublikhan]

The only way ginned-up production levels will come near 1970 is if we double up on our ethanol production and add another 5 million barrels per day of lighter fluid, camp-stove gas and plastic feedstock.

No need to double up anything. The US already hit a new petroleum production record in 2014:

US production of liquid petroleum is surpassing its previous peak, reached in 1970, in the latest landmark for the country’s shale oil boom. Four decades of decline in US oil output have been reversed in just five years of growth.

Petroleum production, including crude oil and related liquids, known as condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, was 11.27m barrels per day in April, almost equalling the peak of 11.3m b/d reached as an average for 1970. Recent growth rates suggest that it has now exceeded that figure.

US petroleum production hits 44-year high

And broke the record again in 2015:

March 11, 2015 - US all liquids oil hit an all time high of 14.56 million barrels per day

US Daily crude oil production highest since Nov 1972 and US all liquids oil hit an all time high of 14.56 million barrels per day

So the US already broke it's all liquids(C&C + NGLs + biofuel) production record and it's petroleum supply(C&C + NGLs) production record. Now the US is on track to break it's C&C production record as well.

[ROCKMAN]

tita - "Producers don't have the money themselves for this, so this is due to heavy investment to pubcos." You have me confused a bit. Virtually all the shale drillers/producers are pubcos...publicly traded oil companies.

Also: "Producers don't have the money themselves for this, so this is due to heavy investment to pubcos". No money? US oil companies have a current GROSS REVENUE of around $135 BILLION per year. Granted they have to pay royalties, taxes, operating expenses as well as service debt. But that still leaves a substantial amount of net income. ExxonMobil had a NET INCOME of $7.2 BILLION in 2016. Granted not as good as $16.2 BILLION in 2015 but still a lot of change. Even Chesapeake, the poster child of everything that went wrong with the shales, had a net income of -4.4 BILLION in 2016. And yet it spent $1.6 BILLION last year and plans to spend $2+ BILLION in 2017. And investors aren't loaning them money...the banks are. They may be running a negative cash flow but that doesn't mean the company doesn't have an underlying value the money lenders can use to justify financing the company. And it is in worst shape then most companies today. From last August:

"Yesterday Chesapeake Energy, the second largest natural gas producer in the United States (and the largest Marcellus producer, by far) issued three press releases. The first release said the company is working to obtain a five-year bank loan for a staggering $1 billion. The second two releases outlined what they will do with that money: pay off older IOUs. We also spotted commentary on the company’s $1B plan. One analyst predicts Chesapeake is heading for a pre-packaged bankruptcy, similar to what other o&g companies have done, and this massive loan/debt repayment is proof. Another analyst says Chessy CEO Doug Lawler is brilliant and that this move will strengthen Chessy’s stock in the long-term and make the company more solvent. Which one is right? They both can’t be right…"

And so far no signs a CHK filing bankruptcy. Honestly some folks are running around screaming the oil patch is destroyed like their hair is on fire. LOL. But I suspect many of them are either not old enough to have been around in the early 80's or are too lazy to do some web searching. Yeah, the oil patch just took a hard hit. But trust me: this wasn't much compared to the outright slaughter we went thru in the late 70's bust. Like when the rig count fell from 4,500 (compared to the recent peak of only 2,000) to 700. And the same oil patch that had to deal with oil prices less than $20 in 1998.

The same oil patch that since those times almost increased US oil production to the record level it reached over 45 years ago. The Rockman isn't saying there's any chance for history to repeat itself to such extremes. But before you start writing our epitaph you might want to wait until the situation degrades to a level worse then where we were in 1986. LOL. So some might want to back off that massive doom & gloom...they are starting to sound like "girlie men" (said with a heavy German accent.) Seriously: these are the thoughts of a petroleum geologist that had to drive a Yellow Cab in Houston during the 80's in order to scape by. Most here haven't been in the middle of a serious train wreck...the Rockman has. And knew of two geologists that committed suicide back then. Haven't heard of any yet these days but a tad suspicious about Aubrey McClendon's "auto accident". So far this has just been a very serious fender bender proven by the fact that inflation adjusted oil prices are still about 25% higher then the historic average. And twice as high as it was 18 years ago.

[AdamB]

Adam, I think that your looking for an argument where there shouldn't be one. 27 years ago good directional hands were Gods in the oilfield just because of what Rockman says whether that perception was entirely true or not I don't know, but having a good DD, a good Driller on the break and some good mud in the hole made a world of difference.

We weren't...GODS. We were just....really good at what we did.

[AdamB]

Revi wants doom because he is already living the doom dream.

Nothing wrong with daydreaming. The problem is when people let it spill over into reality. This presumes that their doomer scenario isn't just a "believe first, rationalize second" issue, which is a severe problem within the peak oil community.

But Revi seems pretty clear headed otherwise, and peak oil looks just like a hobby he wishes would turn out as he wants it to, rather than what it has.

[AdamB]

Pstarr
No disrespect intended, sincerely, but ... after near 25 thousand posts over a!most a decade and a half ... don't you ever get tired of being wrong?

Things that make you go hmmmmmmm.....

He is so consistent in being wrong that you almost have to ask...maybe it is by design?

[asg70]

US oil output on track to hit a record in 2018
u-s-oil-output-seen-rising-to-record-in-2018-amid-shale-revival

Bloomberg???? Sorry, if it doesn't come from ZeroHedge or GlobalResearch it can't be trusted.

[asg70]

Why you are on my ignore...Back on ignore.

Either he's on your ignore list or he isn't. He can't be both at the same time. Either way, the board simply doesn't give a rat's ass who is or isn't on your ignore. Argue your point or concede but don't be an attention-whore.

[kublikhan]

Why you are on my ignore. All the numbers and even the simplest math are . . . wrong. Just one example: 14.56 million barrels per day is BS value. From a BS link. Full of BS data. From a BS post. Back on ignore.

The source is the EIA. Here is the breakdown. I'll use last week's data:

5/5/2017
US Crude oil Production: 9,314 mbpd
NGLs production: 3,604 mbpd
biofuels production: 1,080 mbpd
Refinery Processing Gain: 1,148 mbpd
-----------
9,314 + 3,604 + 1,080 + 1,148 =
15.15 million bpd US all liquids production

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

If you have any more trouble with the simple math let me know.

[kublikhan]

Here is a direct quote from the EIA, no math required. And a picture as well:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production, which in addition to crude oil and condensate production includes natural gas plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries, is projected to grow from 14.8 million barrels/day (b/d) in 2015 to 18.6 million b/d in 2040.

EIA projects rise in U.S. crude oil and other liquid fuels production beyond 2017

[coffeeguyzz]

Kub ...
Now you' ve gone and done it!
Our Ii'l buddy, pstarr is gonna put the EIA on 'ignore' ...again

[AdamB]

Adam, I think that your looking for an argument where there shouldn't be one. 27 years ago good directional hands were Gods in the oilfield just because of what Rockman says whether that perception was entirely true or not I don't know, but having a good DD, a good Driller on the break and some good mud in the hole made a world of difference.

We weren't...GODS. We were just....really good at what we did.

You've been an oil-industry intern for 27 years? yikes

Oh, a bit longer than that actually.