[vision-master]

That's cause their ain't too many worken ppl left to get the boot.

Hope yer turn is soon oily.

[copious.abundance]

That's cause their ain't too many worken ppl left to get the boot.

Yet another nonsensical statement from blindness-master. If there were no one left to get the boot, the unemployment rate would be 100%, not falling to 8.3%.

[GoIllini]

The graphs:

This is some cause for cautious optimism, but I haven't seen anything on discouraged workers. Also the informal industry. We will have to see if this trend continues. The problem is that if we see a sustained increase in US employment, that will mean higher energy prices and more inflation.

We are not out of the Malthusian leg of our 35-year economic cycle. We have five to ten more years of sideways markets, high commodities costs, and general gloom. It will probably end when the smart money is hiding under their beds and folks treat blue-chip stocks like they treated penny stocks at the height of the dot-com boom.

A sub-9% unemployment reading would be nice. This could be the impact of the Japanese recovery. Hopefully our environmentally-friendly arc furnaces are working full tilt to produce recycled steel for them to rebuild.

I think the public is expecting sub-8% unemployment for the trillions spent on stimulus over the past 4 years. If we get that, it doesn't guarantee a Democratic congress, but short of a major scandal, it probably gives Obama a second term and maybe some political breathing room for energy reform.

[Armageddon]

Here Comes The Double Dip (Empire)

Sorry folks, the "recovery" meme has just run out of gas....

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in October. The general business conditions index remained negative and, at -.5, was little changed. The new orders index hovered around zero, indicating that orders were flat, while the shipments index rose above zero to 5.3. The inventories index stayed below zero, a sign that inventories declined. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received fell, but remained positive, suggesting that price increases moderated. The index for number of employees rose several points but was at a relatively low level of 3.4, while the average workweek index was negative for a fifth consecutive month. The future general business conditions index dropped six points to 6.7, its lowest level since early 2009, while future indexes for prices paid and prices received declined.

Yuck.

There is utterly nothing to indicate success in "reflating" or "restarting" the economy here. Nothing.

This report is just flat-out terrible, no ifs ands or buts. I wish there was some other way to put this, but there isn't. What's worse is that the composite is now sitting just about where it was in 2010 and just before it all went to hell in 2008.

So what we have here is more validation for my beliefs: The Fed delayed but did not avoid the contraction in 2010 with its "QE2", and in engaging in that program it weakened both itself and the government in general by destroying both's ability to respond in the future to financial stress.

Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked.

This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what's right rather than what's politically expedient didn't do so.

You're about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington.


http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196083

[GoIllini]

So what we have here is more validation for my beliefs: The Fed delayed but did not avoid the contraction in 2010 with its "QE2", and in engaging in that program it weakened both itself and the government in general by destroying both's ability to respond in the future to financial stress.

Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked. This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what's right rather than what's politically expedient didn't do so.
You're about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196083

Well, it is important to view things in context. They had a very strong spring, but it is turning a bit negative now: N Y Fed

The general business conditions are consistent with November of last year and the future business conditions are tracking above 2008/2009 and may have already formed a bottom. Additionally, inventories are down, a good sign for future manufacturing. So there is some good news in the report and it's best to take it all in stride.

There's a lot of good news and bad news in the economy, and the manufacturers are really downstream from the consumers, who were posting negative sentiment back in February and March. The Japanese earthquake probably did not help much with their suppliers either. The two indicators that I like to look at for the general long-term health of the US economy are unemployment and the consumer savings rate, and both seem to be doing OK.

The Philips curve moved out dramatically in 2008- just as it did in 1973/4- and we are likely to continue seeing >6% unemployment and >3% inflation for another 10-15 years.

[copious.abundance]

Just think: If we had more high school graduates willing to major in mechanical engineering or willing to go to trade school to learn to be a machinist, instead of taking out $30K in student loans to major in English, Environmental Studies or sociology at Swarthmore, Wellesly or Vassar only to end up protesting at "Occupy [insert city here]" because they can't find a job, we'd have even more of a manufacturing renaissance.

WANTED: 600,000 Skilled Workers for Manufacturing Industry

American manufacturing companies cannot fill as many as 600,000 skilled positions - even as unemployment numbers hover at historic levels - according to a new survey from Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute.

The survey, "Boiling Point? The skills gap in U.S. manufacturing," polled a nationally representative sample of 1,123 executives at manufacturing companies recently and revealed that 5 percent of current manufacturing jobs are unfilled due to a lack of qualified candidates.

"The survey shows that 67 percent of manufacturers have a moderate to severe shortage of available, qualified workers," said Craig Giffi, vice chairman and consumer & industrial products industry leader, Deloitte LLP. "Moreover, 56 percent anticipate the shortage to increase in the next three to five years."

"These unfilled jobs are mainly in the skilled production category - positions such as machinists, operators, craft workers, distributors and technicians," said Emily DeRocco, president, The Manufacturing Institute. "Unfortunately, these jobs require the most training and are traditionally among the hardest manufacturing jobs to find existing talent to fill."

[AgentR11]

OF2.. we do agree; but those jobs are not seen as trendy. You don't "get the girls" by dragging around a mechanical pencil and staedler eraser in your shirt pocket; there's no bling in choosing large polycarb lenses for your eyeglasses as opposed to contacts or lasic because they provide extra protection for your eyesight in the lab or shop... The engineer or machinist isn't the fast dealing guy in the business suit, nor the philosophical poet/comedian in flip flops; he or she is just Bob or Jane, brilliant, productive, and utterly ignorable.

That the workload required to achieve that competency is also brutal, meticulous, and absolutely unfudgeable, really makes it a hard sell.

[Daniel_Plainview]

"The survey shows that 67 percent of manufacturers have a moderate to severe shortage of available, qualified workers," said Craig Giffi, vice chairman and consumer & industrial products industry leader, Deloitte LLP.

Why hire in the US when you can hire from a highly skilled labor pool in India at 1/4 the cost ... plus no employment laws ... no FICA taxes ... ... no employer liabilities ... no sexual harassment suits ... no EPA ... no OSHA ... no NLRB ... no IRS ... no FLSA ... no child labor laws ... no wage / hour laws ... no workers compensation ...

[Lore]

What most employers want is to rob this 5% of skilled workers from someone else, where the potential employee has already been trained and experienced in similar operations. The new graduate engineer or technician is pretty low on the list.

Meanwhile, a student gets trained in the current generation of needed skills, only to find out after graduating that his chosen profession has moved on to the next generation, has been replaced through advances in automation, or has been outsourced.

[copious.abundance]

OF2.. we do agree; but those jobs are not seen as trendy. You don't "get the girls" by dragging around a mechanical pencil and staedler eraser in your shirt pocket; there's no bling in choosing large polycarb lenses for your eyeglasses as opposed to contacts or lasic because they provide extra protection for your eyesight in the lab or shop... The engineer or machinist isn't the fast dealing guy in the business suit, nor the philosophical poet/comedian in flip flops; he or she is just Bob or Jane, brilliant, productive, and utterly ignorable.

That the workload required to achieve that competency is also brutal, meticulous, and absolutely unfudgeable, really makes it a hard sell.

Sad but true.

[copious.abundance]

Why hire in the US when you can hire from a highly skilled labor pool in India at 1/4 the cost ... plus no employment laws ... no FICA taxes ... ... no employer liabilities ... no sexual harassment suits ... no EPA ... no OSHA ... no NLRB ... no IRS ... no FLSA ... no child labor laws ... no wage / hour laws ... no workers compensation ...

Don't kid yourself that there aren't hidden costs of locating in India.

In fact, India has some of the most burdensome regulations and taxes on the planet (they were under a socialist government for decades). They've even got laws prohibiting discrimination against untouchables and every other ethnic/minority group, of which there are countless in India.

[Lore]

Why hire in the US when you can hire from a highly skilled labor pool in India at 1/4 the cost ... plus no employment laws ... no FICA taxes ... ... no employer liabilities ... no sexual harassment suits ... no EPA ... no OSHA ... no NLRB ... no IRS ... no FLSA ... no child labor laws ... no wage / hour laws ... no workers compensation ...

Don't kid yourself that there aren't hidden costs of locating in India.

In fact, India has some of the most burdensome regulations and taxes on the planet (they were under a socialist government for decades). They've even got laws prohibiting discrimination against untouchables and every other ethnic/minority group, of which there are countless in India.

One of the big draws, is that's where all the future growth is happening.

[Armageddon]

Lowes to Close Stores;Gap to Close US Stores, Expand in China; Best Buy to Reduce Square Footage by 10%; Mall Vacancies Record High; Grim Jobs Picture

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... se-us.html


Pretty telling on the real state of the economy.

[TheAntiDoomer]

Banks Start to Make More Loans

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44944405

Despite all the bleak economic news, a funny thing has been happening in the financial industry over the last few months: the banks have quietly turned on the lending spigot.

[joewp]

How nice of them. They decide to inflate the money supply and drive up housing prices again so they can reel in the loans and crash the housing market once again.

I don't know why you think this is a good thing, AD. All it does is make your money even more worthless than it already is.

[GoIllini]

LOL, this is like watching a propaganda war or something. I don't see any nuanced analysis. Either we're looking at 3% growth next year or a 2008 repeat.

[babystrangeloop]

[copious.abundance]

Philly Fed Index Back into Expansion Mode. New Orders Sub-index also Back Above Zero

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly expanded in October at the fastest pace in six months, a sign U.S. factories may provide more support for the recovery.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index increased to 8.7 from minus 17.5 last month, the biggest one-month rebound in 31 years. Economists forecast minus 9.4 for the gauge, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings greater than zero indicate expansion in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Manufacturing may be picking up after companies put production plans on hold last month, when flagging financial markets and a rise in pessimism suggested slowing demand. Companies like Parker Hannifin Corp. (PH) have pointed to order gains, signaling the economy will avoid another recession.

[...]

[Armageddon]

Builders to deliver record low number of housing units in 2011

One stat that is hard to fudge

[vision-master]

Just took a $90,000 loss on a $130,000 condo. We added new hardwood floors remodeled the whole place, In an upscale area, was on the market for 1 year. Yeah, things are looking just grand.