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US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 28 Apr 2023, 18:23:09

First Republic Bank is is deep trouble, it's share price has tanked, going from the $120 mark in early May 2023 to $3.50 today. Yahoo finance puts it's current market cap at $653 Million, which we can calculate from the share price was $22 Billion just 2 months ago. Looking at the wiki page it had $166 Billion in ouststanding loans, $102 Billion of which were residential real estate. I guess it was the other $64 Billion in loans that went sour to some degree.

These are the risky banks, the ones that no doubt rode the nuvo-tech bubble up as well as other risky bets. When will this this debacle end? And will we start to see some big retail banks join the list?

First Republic Bank is a commercial bank and provider of wealth management services headquartered in San Francisco. It caters to high-net-worth individuals. It operates 93 offices in 11 states, primarily in New York, California, Massachusetts, and Florida.

As of December 31, 2022, the company had $166 billion in outstanding loans receivable, including $102 billion in loans secured by residential real estate, $34 billion in loans secured by income-producing commercial real estate, $18 billion in business loans, and $10 billion in other loans. Collateral securing loans was overwhelmingly in the metro areas of Boston, New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 30 Apr 2023, 00:40:05

It was just a month ago that Biden claimed the banking crisis was "calming down."

biden-says-banking-crisis-has-calmed-down-2023-03-17

Unfortunately instead of calming things down the Biden administration has made the banking crisis worse.

By bailing out Silicon Valley bank the Biden administration sent the message that politically connected banks with billionaire Chinese and wealthy Ds as depositors would get bailed out, while banks that had only typical Americans as depositors wouldn't be bailed out.

And sure enough.....here is Republic Bank going down. The bank crisis continues.

The Biden administration was incredibly incompetent not to realize that inflation and high interest rates meant that the low interest bonds held by banks lost most of their value, meaning many banks didn't have enough assets to cover their deposits. There are literally hundreds of banks in the US with the same problem as Silicon Valley Bank and Republic banks.....and no one knows whether or not the Biden administration will think they have enough D donors among their depositors to deserve help.

Image
Sure you say your bank need help but how many foreign billionaires and wealthy Ds do you have as depositors?

Its total chaos out there now in the banking world, as per usual when the Biden administration is in charge.

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Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 30 Apr 2023, 21:24:28

Robert Kiyosaki Says Regional Banks Are Being Wiped Out — Calls Fed 'Criminal

In a new tweetstorm to his 2.4 million Twitter followers, the best-selling author questions the Fed’s intentions and continued interest rate hikes amid the collapse of Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and now First Republic.

Kiyosaki says the Fed’s actions blatantly support big banks while placing smaller regional banks at risk.

“WTF. What The Fed? Why is the Fed destroying regional banks across America? Regional banks are the heart and soul of the economy. The Fed via the repo market is killing regional banks. Is this intentional? Is a depression intentional? WTF is the Fed up to? Get out of regional banks…

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/29/federa ... -kiyosaki/
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby careinke » Mon 01 May 2023, 01:13:15

theluckycountry wrote:Robert Kiyosaki Says Regional Banks Are Being Wiped Out — Calls Fed 'Criminal

“WTF. What The Fed? Why is the Fed destroying regional banks across America? Regional banks are the heart and soul of the economy. The Fed via the repo market is killing regional banks. Is this intentional? Is a depression intentional? WTF is the Fed up to? Get out of regional banks…

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/29/federa ... -kiyosaki/


Clearing the way for CBDC's and it's intentional.

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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 01 May 2023, 08:04:25

careinke wrote:
Clearing the way for CBDC's and it's intentional.


I didn't connect the dots, but I believe you're right. centralization, banks, corporations, once it's all under one roof you can do what you like.
There will be pushback though, as I posted on another thread cash is coming back in a big way in the UK.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62437819
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 May 2023, 09:02:44

theluckycountry wrote:“WTF. What The Fed? Why is the Fed destroying regional banks across America? Regional banks are the heart and soul of the economy. The Fed via the repo market is killing regional banks. Is this intentional? Is a depression intentional? WTF is the Fed up to? Get out of regional banks…

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/29/federa ... -kiyosaki/


I recommend banks not make bets they don't understand, and when they get it wrong, not blame the Fed. These idiots fell for the same thing peak oilers did, pretend the future will look like the past, and plan, pontificate and demonstrate an understanding of the world no better than that of a house pet. Works fine until even banker morons (or peak oilers) realize that the future has zero requirement to look like the past.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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JPMorgan Snaps Up First Republic's Assets in US Auction

Unread postby BrianC » Mon 01 May 2023, 11:36:10

JPMorgan said on Monday it will buy most of First Republic Bank's assets after regulators seized the troubled lender at the weekend, marking the third failure of a major U.S. bank in two months. From a report:
Under the deal, which came after an auction, JPMorgan will pay $10.6 billion to the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) for most of the assets of the San Francisco-based bank, whose failure is the largest since Washington Mutual in 2008. JPMorgan, already the biggest bank in the United States, has also entered into a loss-share agreement with the FDIC on single family, residential and commercial loans it bought, but will not take First Republic Bank's corporate debt or preferred stock. The deal allows for an orderly failure of First Republic and avoids regulators having to insure all the bank's deposits, as they had to do when two others collapsed in March. First Republic disclosed last week that it had suffered more than $100 billion in outflows in the first quarter and was exploring options, increasing stress in the banking sector
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 May 2023, 22:17:16

AdamB wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:“WTF. What The Fed? Why is the Fed destroying regional banks across America? Regional banks are the heart and soul of the economy. The Fed via the repo market is killing regional banks. Is this intentional? Is a depression intentional? WTF is the Fed up to? Get out of regional banks…

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/29/federa ... -kiyosaki/


I recommend banks not make bets they don't understand, and when they get it wrong, not blame the Fed. These idiots fell for the same thing peak oilers did, pretend the future will look like the past, and plan, pontificate and demonstrate an understanding of the world no better than that of a house pet. Works fine until even banker morons (or peak oilers) realize that the future has zero requirement to look like the past.

I sometimes wonder at the lack of human intelligence in many ventures.

Perhaps the "young people" running most of the regional banks these days (i.e. middle aged folks), are using intuition instead of their formal education / training, to make decisions on interest rate risk, re short vs. long term maturities.

When I grew up and beyond late 60's through the mid 90's, people, even regular middle class people with no formal finance training were VERY WELL AWARE of interest rate risk re different maturities. Interest rates were VOLATILE, and so such things mattered a LOT, and KILLED you (financially) if you ignored them.

But then we have ZIRP, interest rate suppression, and massively low interest rates and inflation for over a decade, and suddenly, the "geniuses" running moderate sized banks decide it's brilliant to buy long term paper at VERY low interest rates (historically), and "make money" on short term accounts.

Problem is, if interest rates rise anywhere close to normal historical rates as recently as the 90's, they get KILLED doing that, as the value of their long term paper (bonds and long term notes) gets DECIMATED by strongly rising interest rates. (Which again, they should have formally learned in finance 101, for crying out loud).

Such bankers are doing it to themselves. Just like the clowns who lent a bazillion dollars to banana republics and got wiped out when (unsurprisingly) they didn't pay it back about 50 years ago. And that was largely money center banks in that fiasco. For "having the money", investment bankers sure have a lot of stupid ways to lose spectacular amounts of it.

Apparently having a sweet government backstop and very few jail sentences for criminally incompetent bankers makes it all worthwhile to them.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 04 May 2023, 13:36:10

48% Of Americans Are Worried About Their Money's Safety In US Banks, More Than During Peak Of 2008 Crisis

https://news.gallup.com/poll/505439/hal ... banks.aspx

A gallup poll, measured of all things by political ideology. But a lot of people are worried and I would be too if I kept lots of money there. I mean in US banks, Aussie banks are a little different, the Big 4 down here are essentially a cartel and the government protections are substantial. Still, at the end of the day if the banks default, wind up, then it's possible you could have your savings guaranteed but inaccessible. This is what has happened in many jurisdictions around the globe. The money is still there but you can only withdraw it bit by bit.

Years ago I downloaded the documents from the Westpac bank that deals with a Winding Up. Depositors were the very last on the list of who got paid out. The simple fact is, like most corporations these days the Banks own next to nothing of value. Their major asset is typically their debt, and in a downturn the value of that is very questionable.
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 04 May 2023, 19:36:43

"Half of America’s banks are potentially insolvent – this is how a credit crunch begins"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... it-crunch/
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 05 May 2023, 23:41:07

"4 US banks crash in 2 months: Banking crisis explained by economist Michael Hudson"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImjdVxd09fo
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 08 May 2023, 18:15:12

In the early 2000's Australian banks owned a lot of real estate. Their branches, and the big CBD office towers, possibly much more that I didn't research. They began to sell them all, primarily to super funds (Private pensions) with the guarantee they would lease them back for 5 years and more.

They had all the typical propaganda out there as to why this was a great idea, good for their share hodlers, a windfall for the Super Funds. By the turn of the decade half the branches were closed and there had been a collapse in commercial RE prices. Then of course is the value of those office towers, all built of reinforced concrete, all heading for demolition in the decades ahead.

What does these Banks own now? Basically their mortgages and through their investment arms a lot of shares, shares in all manner of corporations. It's this inter-ownership of shares that allows them to control the corporations, they all own shares in each others corps, it's one big club but some entity at the top is holding the strings.

The real evidence for this is the way nations in the West move in lockstep. Interest rates all go up and down together, privatization initiatives came in across the globe all at the same time, as well as the push for private pensions, private health care, even gun control measures, and VAT, GST type taxes. You may think you are electing a government that is specifically concerned with your nation but the evidence is that all the major moves they make are not in your favor and mirror moves made in all the other OECD's.

Look at mass immigration, all into western nations, they are all on board because they are being directed to do so and not by the people who elected them. There are a few exceptions, Switzerland (the bankers home base) Japan, a law unto itself, but the vast majority of western nations all dance to the same song.

Punters think they are clever, selecting their investments wisely, choosing this bank over another, but the simple truth is they are just playing in a corner of the big casino that is controlled by these supranational entities. Call these entities the money powers, the men behind the curtain, but when they decide to pull the rug nothing in the conventional money system will be safe.


Quotation by Abraham Lincoln:

The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and conspire against it in times of adversity. The banking powers are more despotic than a monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy. They denounce as public enemies all who question their methods or throw light upon their crimes. I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me and the bankers in the rear. Of the two, the one at my rear is my greatest foe.
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 May 2023, 10:17:48

theluckycountry wrote:Punters think they are clever, selecting their investments wisely, choosing this bank over another, but the simple truth is they are just playing in a corner of the big casino that is controlled by these supranational entities. Call these entities the money powers, the men behind the curtain, but when they decide to pull the rug nothing in the conventional money system will be safe.


SSSHHHHH....they are supposed to be a secret.....
Image

Why do conpiracy nutters and PM fanbois have to be have to be so damn predictable.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 25 May 2023, 05:25:18

Image

When visiting one of our branches to make a cash withdrawal, you will need your Debit Card and PIN. You may also be asked for:

Secondary ID (such as Driving License or Passport)
Relevant paperwork to support your payment purpose, if this exists. For example, for property works please provide an invoice
To be prepared for our branch colleagues to ask further questions about your withdrawal request which can sometimes take up to 30 minutes - providing advance notification of the request does not mean it has been authorised
In some instances, we may decline the cash withdrawal based on the information provided surrounding the transaction. This would only ever be in situations where we need to safeguard our customers

https://supportcentre.natwest.com/Banki ... branch.htm
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 25 May 2023, 07:43:23

theluckycountry wrote:
In some instances, we may decline the cash withdrawal based on the information provided surrounding the transaction. This would only ever be in situations where we need to safeguard our customers

https://supportcentre.natwest.com/Banki ... branch.htm


That is some crazy shit. The slow march towards a totalitarian system. All in the name of your "safety". Yet people keep voting for them traitor democrats. Not only that, brave men and women who tried to stop the evil menace are now labeled traitors. But then again, what do you expect from a party that doesn't even know what a man and a woman is. How could they even tell the difference between Good and Bad? Democracy is a real problem if you have a population dumb enough to vote for their own enslavement.
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 May 2023, 10:19:13

theluckycountry wrote:Image
In some instances, we may decline the cash withdrawal based on the information provided surrounding the transaction. This would only ever be in situations where we need to safeguard our customers

https://supportcentre.natwest.com/Banki ... branch.htm

Move to a real country not begging for scraps from the Crown and you won't have this problem. You suckled at the teat of the Queen for 60+ years, grow a pair already and stop pretending the rest of the world is full of neutered folk like yours.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 May 2023, 10:23:01

mousepad wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
In some instances, we may decline the cash withdrawal based on the information provided surrounding the transaction. This would only ever be in situations where we need to safeguard our customers

https://supportcentre.natwest.com/Banki ... branch.htm


That is some crazy shit. The slow march towards a totalitarian system. All in the name of your "safety". Yet people keep voting for them traitor democrats.


This isn't a US bank. It is one of those things forced off on Commonwealth countries (otherwise known as "lacking the balls to do what Americans did more than a quarter millennium ago" to put it in context) because they only know how to suckle off the teat of some washed up ex-world power. Not sure when you have a King it matters much anyway, the whole democan/republicrat nonsense we deal with in the United States of America.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 25 May 2023, 11:34:27

AdamB wrote:This isn't a US bank.


Yes, but we're on the same trajectory. When my business has to pay large invoices I have to show proof of invoice to the bank to be able to make payment. For my safety, they say.
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 May 2023, 14:06:00

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:This isn't a US bank.


Yes, but we're on the same trajectory.


Well, maybe. The downfall of banks, the creation of the Amero, all of this has been around longer than the modern peak oil movement popularized some of it online. Those of us around for the end of America when Jimmy was president were being told the same things, not about the world running out of oil by the end of the 1980's as much as the end of the financial system, the destruction of the banking system, BUY GOLD run of the mill PM stuff.

Once you've been "on a trajectory" for a lifetime, you gotta ask, how many MORE lifetimes might be required to see it finally arrive. This effect is the same as peak oil, it comes, it goes, folks get lathered up, rinse, recycle, repeat.

mousepad wrote:When my business has to pay large invoices I have to show proof of invoice to the bank to be able to make payment. For my safety, they say.


Well, aren't large sums moving around being tracked something that dates back in banking rules to like the days that the cocaine cartels starting laundering money and the banking rules became far more draconian? They might say right after "for your safety" something like "we have to prove to the regulators we watch sums above X $$". Same thing has happened to me when I deposited money for crying out loud, delays (which at least I understand from the old less digital banking system) from folks who's ability to make the check good aren't in question.

Based on how my wife and kids are moving into the "new" banking online world, folks are just going to go with the flow because it is convenient. They laugh at me when I use cash, write checks, "WHAT DO YOU MEAN YOU CAN'T ZELLE ME MONEY!". The digital money brave new world is here already, best I can tell, and us old farts are just dinosaurs.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: US Banking Collapses Pt.1

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 25 May 2023, 14:43:00

AdamB wrote:They might say right after "for your safety" something like "we have to prove to the regulators we watch sums above X $$". Same thing has happened to me when I deposited money for crying out loud, delays (which at least I understand from the old less digital banking system) from folks who's ability to make the check good aren't in question.

I know, crazy right? I remember opening several bank accounts as a teenager. I walked into the branch, filled out a piece of paper, done.
Nowadays I practically cannot open an account anymore without having the bank do a colonoscopy on me.

folks are just going to go with the flow because it is convenient

I know. That's the scary part. Slowly freedom is eroded. Slowely are your rights removed, slowely the nations identiy and values destroyed. One piece at a time, and once the demwit voters realize what happened. Well by then it's too late.
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