[TBroedsgaard]

There's a lot of talk about the falling faith in American economy, and if America looses it's position as sole petrocurrency, it seems plausible that America will be subject to another Great Depression.

If this happens, what will the consequences be for Europe? Back in '29 and the thirties the Western-European economies suffered hard, and unemployment rates soared.

Will this happen again, if the American economy comes crashing down? Or will we go through with no trouble?

Any educated guesses?

[malcomatic_51]

The answer is "yes" Europe will be hit hard, but different countries to different degrees. The US consumer dominates the global economy to an remarkable degree. I am sure I heard that US consumers account for a quarter of the world economy. Anyway, it's a huge contribution.

I'm taking a guess that countries with the most money, strongest local politics and strong manufacturing base will weather the storm best. The UK is heavily in debt and would fall after the US into depression. Germany is the world's greatest exporter, will suffer from loss of export earnings, but they are not heavily in debt now so they'll be able to just hunker down and get on with it. My impression of Germany is that its people are very laid back and mature and they are not likely to react badly to a crisis. Can't say the same for the French though. Britain probably will get nasty as unemployment balloons and small minds blame immigrants. Don't sunbathe in Britain, if you know what I mean, and beware of tar brushes.

I won't cry when the current Kindergarten culture drops off the cliff. It has bred selfishness and expediency to an extraordinary degree.

[Kingcoal]

What caused the Great Depression to be so bad was the illogical reaction to the stock market crash. Led by the US, the big players in the world economy erected trade barriers which effectively shutdown the world economy.

I think that we've avoided several crashes since that time. We did learn a lot since then. I think that a crash is unlikely. However, slow rot may still happen.

[EnergyHog]

It's a global economy now, we're all in this together. Obviously the magnitude of the pain will vary from person to person, city to city, country to country.

[chris-h]

There's a lot of talk about the falling faith in American economy, and if America looses it's position as sole petrocurrency, it seems plausible that America will be subject to another Great Depression.

If this happens, what will the consequences be for Europe?

Any educated guesses?

Is it good or bad to be the next emperor ?

[kevincarter]

Consequences for Europe will be that everybody will shit on their pants and start selling, so we'll end up crashing as well. If its not crash but slow motion we will still follow the exact same path as the Americans since economy is totally globalized.

In a European economic crisis: (depends on the country, Finnland is not the same as Spain for instance)
People will go straight to get their unemployment pay to face the not-so-funny-anymore mortgages that they have. Also they will cut loose all extra non-necessary expenditures such as fun, out dinners, movies, entertainment and vacations, that will force business and shops to shut down, so more people will be unemployed and asking for unemployment pay and social help. Once they run out of unemployment money (2 years max. here) and if things have not improved yet they'll realize they can't pay their houses, so they'll try to sell them, but nobody will be able to pay the extra expensive prices due to lack of good jobs, so house prices will go down. Once they go down constructors will stop building like madmen, so all construction workers, truck drivers, factories, sellers etc… that work for the real state will go out of business quick and then LOTS of people will be without a job and some without a job or a house where to live. And that means crime, drugs, violence and probably corruption.

Politicians will do the only thing they know, rise taxes.

Blame will be put on immigration without a doubt and tensions will arise among poor/rich EU countries.

Add an energy crisis to all that and you’ll find all the good reasons to move to the countryside, rise some chickens and get a garden going, why suffer?

[LX1]

The answer is "yes" Europe will be hit hard, but different countries to different degrees. The US consumer dominates the global economy to an remarkable degree. I am sure I heard that US consumers account for a quarter of the world economy. Anyway, it's a huge contribution.

I'm taking a guess that countries with the most money, strongest local politics and strong manufacturing base will weather the storm best. The UK is heavily in debt and would fall after the US into depression. Germany is the world's greatest exporter, will suffer from loss of export earnings, but they are not heavily in debt now so they'll be able to just hunker down and get on with it. My impression of Germany is that its people are very laid back and mature and they are not likely to react badly to a crisis. Can't say the same for the French though. Britain probably will get nasty as unemployment balloons and small minds blame immigrants. Don't sunbathe in Britain, if you know what I mean, and beware of tar brushes.

I won't cry when the current Kindergarten culture drops off the cliff. It has bred selfishness and expediency to an extraordinary degree.

im pretty sure that germanys debt to gdp ratio is higher than the UK.

[Cyrus]

Earth's finite quantity of raw materials requires fossil fuels from processing to the finished products, and for plastics, petroleum provides the raw stock. Any radical transformation of the energy system in the 21st century will require a range of new technologies on a large scale using limited natural resources. For example, thin-film solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery-electric vehicles require rare metals — cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, lead, lithium, nickel, ruthenium, etc.

As this materials run short, by 2017, “the radio ... the [cell phone, computer game and Blackberry], and the movies that we know, may just be passing fancies, and in time may go.” (With apologies to George Gershwin).

"Growthmania"

[Tanada]

Earth's finite quantity of raw materials requires fossil fuels from processing to the finished products, and for plastics, petroleum provides the raw stock. Any radical transformation of the energy system in the 21st century will require a range of new technologies on a large scale using limited natural resources. For example, thin-film solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery-electric vehicles require rare metals — cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, lead, lithium, nickel, ruthenium, etc.

As this materials run short, by 2017, “the radio ... the [cell phone, computer game and Blackberry], and the movies that we know, may just be passing fancies, and in time may go.” (With apologies to George Gershwin).

That is just plain silly. First off Lead, Cobalt and Lithium at the very least are fairly common.
Secondly if you can't buy a new cell phone/blackberry/i-phone every six months it does not mean your old one is useless, change for the sake of change is just as stupid as doing the same ineffective thing over and over because it is 'tradition'. I carry a five year old cell phone because I use it to make calls. All the youngsters I work with think I am crazy, but it has been paid off for three years, it works fine, and I do not need it for anything but making calls so why upgrade for a bunch of bells and whistles that would rarely if ever get used?

[erb]

Earth's finite quantity of raw materials requires fossil fuels from processing to the finished products, and for plastics, petroleum provides the raw stock. Any radical transformation of the energy system in the 21st century will require a range of new technologies on a large scale using limited natural resources. For example, thin-film solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery-electric vehicles require rare metals — cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, lead, lithium, nickel, ruthenium, etc.

As this materials run short, by 2017, “the radio ... the [cell phone, computer game and Blackberry], and the movies that we know, may just be passing fancies, and in time may go.” (With apologies to George Gershwin).

That is just plain silly. First off Lead, Cobalt and Lithium at the very least are fairly common.
Secondly if you can't buy a new cell phone/blackberry/i-phone every six months it does not mean your old one is useless, change for the sake of change is just as stupid as doing the same ineffective thing over and over because it is 'tradition'. I carry a five year old cell phone because I use it to make calls. All the youngsters I work with think I am crazy, but it has been paid off for three years, it works fine, and I do not need it for anything but making calls so why upgrade for a bunch of bells and whistles that would rarely if ever get used?

sure those old phones work but they dont have camera's and mp3 players which everyone wants. people aren't going to settle for the old things when the latest and greatest is out there being pushed by the media.
second think of all these companies who depend on putting out the latest and greatest. motorolla, apple, LG, sony, ect .ect., you think they're going to stop anytime soon while profits ar to be had,

problems compounded by problems compounded by ever diminishing resources and energy

[jdmartin]

That is just plain silly. First off Lead, Cobalt and Lithium at the very least are fairly common.
Secondly if you can't buy a new cell phone/blackberry/i-phone every six months it does not mean your old one is useless, change for the sake of change is just as stupid as doing the same ineffective thing over and over because it is 'tradition'. I carry a five year old cell phone because I use it to make calls. All the youngsters I work with think I am crazy, but it has been paid off for three years, it works fine, and I do not need it for anything but making calls so why upgrade for a bunch of bells and whistles that would rarely if ever get used?

I'm surprised that a cell phone you had from 5 years ago still works ! Back when I had my own cell phone, I had to change phones twice because the old network stuff they were using had been "upgraded", and hence the phones wouldn't work anymore. The last cell phone I had just up and died on its own. Don't have my own anymore, but I do have one from my job, and the phone company gives me a new phone every 2 years - I never really heard of "buying" one.

[Tanada]

That is just plain silly. First off Lead, Cobalt and Lithium at the very least are fairly common.
Secondly if you can't buy a new cell phone/blackberry/i-phone every six months it does not mean your old one is useless, change for the sake of change is just as stupid as doing the same ineffective thing over and over because it is 'tradition'. I carry a five year old cell phone because I use it to make calls. All the youngsters I work with think I am crazy, but it has been paid off for three years, it works fine, and I do not need it for anything but making calls so why upgrade for a bunch of bells and whistles that would rarely if ever get used?

I'm surprised that a cell phone you had from 5 years ago still works ! Back when I had my own cell phone, I had to change phones twice because the old network stuff they were using had been "upgraded", and hence the phones wouldn't work anymore. The last cell phone I had just up and died on its own. Don't have my own anymore, but I do have one from my job, and the phone company gives me a new phone every 2 years - I never really heard of "buying" one.

Verizon, what can I tell you. Motorola built the thing and Verizon has over the air software updates that you can access 24/7, which they recommend every 30 days or so for best preformance. I did have to replace the Antenna and the Battery, other than that it is all original.

Your 'free phone' every two years is part of your service contract, you can cancle it once the two years is up and your phone is paid for. There ain't no such things as a free lunch, or a free phone, you are paying for it somewhere in your bill even if it isn't explicitly an item on your invoice.

[Ferretlover]

Erb: "second think of all these companies who depend on putting out the latest and greatest. motorolla, apple, LG, sony, ect .ect., you think they're going to stop anytime soon while profits ar to be had."

It certainly will be interesting to see what their products look like when there is no more oil for making those products. Somehow I don't think that there is going to be a big demand for DVDs, Cds, cases, etc., that are made out of wood or clay......

And, how do you think they are going to ship those products? I think that some of the trains will still be running, but how many towns have rail service?

And, when people in the oil industry-gas stations, car makers (what in the world are we going to do with millions of cars that no longer run??), etc., don't have jobs to pay for those toys?

[jdmartin]

Your 'free phone' every two years is part of your service contract, you can cancle it once the two years is up and your phone is paid for. There ain't no such things as a free lunch, or a free phone, you are paying for it somewhere in your bill even if it isn't explicitly an item on your invoice.

Oh, I realize that - I'm under no delusions that Verizon likes giving out free phones. My company pays for it, and I've got to have the damn thing 24/7, so I guess it's a "perk" of the job - though to be quite honest most of the time I really don't want anyone finding me...still, next phone for me is going to be one of those skinny, stick it in your pocket phones instead of the extra appendage I'm wearing right now.

[gg3]

Chimpanzees have a remarkable tendency to grasp at objects that are (literally) shiny and new. Eep! eep!

Now think about that phrase "shiny and new" as it's been used in advertising and popular media. Eep eep!

This is the central problem of humanity: the dual compulsions to reproduce and to consume, driven at instinct level, and almost taboo to question. These are the factors that will ultimately render us extinct unless we evolve sufficiently to put deliberate thinking and conscious choice ahead of instinctive compulsion.

---

About cellphones, by example.

Until a couple of decades ago, telephone companies owned the hardwired telephones in your homes and workplaces. A residential extension (for example a second phone in the bedroom) would typically cost about $1.50 additional per month in the US. The actual cost of the telephone was about $25.00 plus overhead costs, so the phone companies made decent money on this, which helped subsidize the cost of basic monthly service for people who didn't want or couldn't afford the extras.

Those telephones were designed to last 40 years in service, and then be reconditioned, and last another 40 years. In fact all of the oldschool telco infrastructure was designed with these lifespans, except for underground cable, which was designed to last about a century.

New models of telephones were introduced about once every decade. Thus you had the Western Electric 202 set in 1927, the 302 in 1937, the 500 in 1949 (the rotary phone most of us in the US grew up with), and the 2500 (its touchtone variant, still being produced) in about 1965. All of these coexisted alongside each other for the duration of their lifespans (the last 302s were being removed from service as late as the middle 1980s). The 2500 design is now 40-something years old and still being made, and all of the major component subassemblies are perfectly interchangeable with those from the 1965 model. (In fact if you find an old Bell telephone at a flea market and carefully take it apart, you will notice that various components have different month/year dates on them, sometimes decades apart from one another.)

As well, the telcos of yesterday practiced 100% recycling: everything that could not be repaired was rendered down for raw materials and those materials were re-used as feedstocks for new material and equipment.

This was the world's most advanced case of eco-industrial engineering.

We could do it again if we choose. We could do it for every functional object we own.

And the only reason we don't, boils down to... eep! eep!

[mark]

Iraq Now As I See It

The war in Iraq is a war crime and should end tomorrow if not today, but Americans seem to think that we can end the war, bring the troops home, and go back to happy motoring. The Vietnam War depleted and demoralized the United States causing American power to decline. In large part because of that war's cost Nixon was forced to abandon the Bretton Woods monetary system. The money spent to run that war fueled the economic competitiveness of Japan and the rest of Asia. The United States had to abandon the institution of a citizen army because of our widespread disillusionment. Lies to justify that war exacerbated an already perverse American tendency to self-delusion. The end of the Iraq war will further weaken the United States. The longer it lasts, the more it costs, the more it distracts us from our other real problems, the more it forces us to take blather for serious talk, the truer this will be. To continue the war is only to postpone and inevitable awakening and exacerbate the dire consequences. When the United States ends its war in Iraq we can expect enormous changes for others and ourselves. Naturally no one can predict exactly what will happen, but we should realize just why all the politicians are reluctant to end the war, and what it means to want that end. As grim as the present situation appears it is a sweet sleep compared to the awakening that will follow. But that awakening is inevitable, and the sooner it happens the better for the United States and the rest of the world. Defeat would serve American interests far better than slogging on in pursuit of an illusory victory, but best would be to choose to end to the war. Below is my own assessment of what some of the geopolitical changes might be.

The good news just keeps on coming!

[Fishman]

But at least he's in the presence of other idiots, some that want to be president in 2008

In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program.
He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members. It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons.”
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY), Oct 10, 2002

Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation … And now he is miscalculating America’s response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction… So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real …”
Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Jan.23.2003

[I_Like_Plants]

Great post GG3.

I was commenting to a friend about how the old soda pop bottline companies were incredible recyclers, they'd pay a bounty of a nickel a bottle for the empties when I was a kid in the 70s, that's close to equivalent to 50 cents now. Who knows how many refills they'd get on some of those bottles, some of them were pretty frosty looking!

Same with the phone co. Stuff was meant to last pretty much forever - all repairable too. Those old phones lasted forever. I estimated a landlady of mine had paid $300 odd for her old rotary phone over the years, but that was OK with her, it was a lot of years after all.

[erl]

If it's not one idiot, it's another.

[AgentR]

If it's not one idiot, it's another.

Better question.... and one that it is illustrative of our society in general. Would any intelligent person submit themselves to the brutality of our public sphere in order to take a job that would destroy every other facet of their life. (and that of their immediate family as well)

We design a job that only psychos and mental incompetents would volunteer for, and then marvel at the result...