Total bank losses reported at this point are around 1 trillion. That is certain to go higher as more losses are reported. Goldman Sachs is projecting losses could go as high as 2.1 trillion before this is all through.Sixstrings wrote:Well, what I'm asking about are the "toxic debts." The bad mortgages, credit card debt, personal and business commercial paper.I'm just curious if the amount of known defaulted debt that the government is/will be guaranteeing excedes our GDP or not.It's harder in the US. The 11 Trillion debt that is shown around is just the Federal debt, from what I understand if you also throw in all the other Government levels you are closer to 25 Trillion.
Sixstrings wrote:The Brit press are really on top of this. Is there no contingency planning regarding supermarkets in the US, or are we just not told about it?
errorist wrote:In the beginning of this century, when I was working in London on one securities related project, one smart old-school english gentleman said to me: Americanism will destroy this country. I did not disagree with him then and seems that we were right.
kublikhan wrote:$1 trillion is 7.2% of GDP.
$2.1 trillion is 15.2% of GDP.
$3.6 trillion is 26% of GDP.
The thing to realize is the US debt is all denominated in US dollers, the US can stiff it's creditors by defaulting or slowly stiff them by inflating.
Quinny wrote:I bet you're glad you didn't return now!
kublikhan wrote: Total bank losses reported at this point are around 1 trillion. That is certain to go higher as more losses are reported. Goldman Sachs is projecting losses could go as high as 2.1 trillion before this is all through.
US Senate Votes Another $350 billion To Bailout Banks
Roubini is predicting a higher figure of 3.6 trillion.
[url=http://]Roubini: U.S. Banking System Insolvent, Another $2.5T of Losses Coming[/url]
$1 trillion is 7.2% of GDP.
$2.1 trillion is 15.2% of GDP.
$3.6 trillion is 26% of GDP.
I actually used the 2007 GDP value of 13.84 trillion. 2008 was 14.33 trillion. CBO is projecting GDP growth of -2.2% for all of 2009, which would put GDP at about 14 trillion. If you think things will be twice as bad as what the CBO thinks, you can double that to -4.4% GDP growth for 2009, which would put GDP at 13.7 trillion. That's about the same value as what I used in my original calculations.ReverseEngineer wrote:kublikhan wrote:$1 trillion is 7.2% of GDP.
$2.1 trillion is 15.2% of GDP.
$3.6 trillion is 26% of GDP.
Would that be based on the GDP of 2008 or 2009? Given that a huge percentage of the GDP was based on the "productivity" of the financial sector, if you have many banks failing here in the next year, do you think the GDP of 2009 will be near what it was in 2008?
mattduke wrote:The economy has already been destroyed. We can no longer can manufacture shoes, for instance. Rebuilding requires economic calculation, which requires sound money. Hyperinflation is by far the worst possible outcome. Here Rothbard makes the case for repudiating the government debt.
http://mises.org/article.aspx?Id=1423
Mesuge wrote:As the UK is not and will not join the Eurozone for some time (decades) the forthcomming firesale makes a great buy opportunity for the French and German fatcats.
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