Within the past couple of days I made an excel spreadsheet looking at average Type 3 depletion rates of all countries that have peaked using EIA data, since 1980, for Crude Oil only (incl. Unconv, but no NGL). For countries peaking before 1980, I used 1980 as the "peak date". This is what I calculated: (All numbers in 1,000 bd)
1980: 151.2 1991: 180.2 2002: 983.5
1981: 151.2 1992: 189.0 2003: 987.8
1982: 155.9 1993: 190.2 2004: 987.8
1983: 160.8 1994: 198.0 2005: 1028.8 (through May)
1984: 166.9 1995: 219.7
1985: 170.5 1996: 223.9
1986: 177.1 1997: 246.8
1987: 180.2 1998: 369.2
1988: 180.2 1999: 389.1
1989: 180.2 2000: 750.3
1990: 180.2 2001: 873.4
One thing that is noticed is that the rate increased in a big spurt in 2000, this was due to the North Sea and rest of the U.K. going into decline. 2005 data is of course not complete, but may be higher, especially if Mexico starts its decline. I think this explains which surplus capacity has disappeared more rapidly in the past 5 years. True, discovery rates has been down for a while, but depletion was not that much of a factor.
This gets to the crux of the problem. Being conservative we can expect Type 3 rates to increase to >1.2 mbd/y shortly. This means that in order for supply to meet growing demand, countries that can expand production have to come up with 3.2+ mbd every year just to meet demand assuming 2 mdb/y demand growth. Thats 20 mbd by 2010 (incl. this year)