[Jotapay]

As I look at Turkmenistan on a map, it makes me wonder if the entire Caspian Sea basin is some sort of giant hydrocarbon trap.

Explain the geology of this. Tell me where the source rock is, how it migrated what cap rock you have discovered and what mechanism exists for this to act in this manner.


Personaly I think you havent a clue what you are talking about and this is another steaming pile of crap.

Yeah. The current Caspian Sea morphology has nothing to do with underlying geology and depositional environments dozens to hundreds of millions of years ago.

Looks like there might be some slick stuff down there though:
http://www.gravmag.com/turkmen.html

Deploy the Marines and international bankers, stat.

[copious.abundance]

>>> Breaking news from UPI <<<

Turkmenistan sees oil and gas boom
Published: June 11, 2009

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan, June 11 (UPI) -- Turkmenistan is set for a major oil and gas boom by 2030 given appropriate foreign investments in offshore fields in the Caspian Sea, officials say.

Turkmenistan joined its Caspian partners in backing an ambitious plan to develop the Caspian Sea shelf. Ashgabat says its gas production could reach 8.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 806 million barrels of oil per year by 2030 if investors come forward, the Trend news agency reports.

The report says Turkmenistan produces 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 73 million barrels of oil currently.

Turkmenistan says its needs around $10 billion in direct investments in its energy sector to reach its full potential. Around $4 billion is slated for 2009 projects, up from $2.3 billion in 2008 and $900 million in 2007.

[...]

806 million barrels per year translates into about 2.2 million bpd. Not bad. If they discover more maybe that'll go up.

[copious.abundance]

Just for the heck of it, here are the oil discoveries I've cataloged in the Caspian Sea the last 3 years.

Size of discovery: 600 million barrels
Date: January 26, 2006
Company(s): Lukoil
Name: Filanovsky
Location: Russian Caspian Sea
API: unknown
Flow rate of test well(s): unknown
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 3.8 billion barrels
Date: May 29, 2008
Company(s): Gazprom and Lukoil
Name: Tsentralnaya
Location: Russian Caspian Sea
API: No information given
Flow rate of test well(s): No information given
Estimated production startup date: No information given
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 110 - 450 million barrels recoverable
Date: October 9, 2008
Company(s): Lundin Petroleum and Gazprom
Name: Morskaya structure
Location: Caspian Sea, Russia
API: 32
Flow rate of test well(s): 2500 bpd
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Then of course there is the 9-16 billion barrel Kashagan discovered in 2000 to the north.

[TheDude]

Turkmenistan could have some 200-250 billion metric tons of oil equivalent

Again you mix apples and oranges to come up with peaches. Turkmenistan's focus in recent years has been on gas, not oil, and they've never topped 203 kb/d - in 2003, after which production dipped downwards, a strange thing in a country which is supposedly bursting at the seams with "large fields." And, again, you salivate at these pronouncements from government/corporate officials that have precisely nothing backing them up other than what is dispensed in press releases and pass on their figures as indisputable fact.

Most of Turkmenistan's oil is extracted from fields at Koturdepe, Nebitdag, and Chekelen near the Caspian Sea, which have a combined estimated reserve of 700 million tons. The oil extraction industry started with the exploitation of the fields in Chekelen in 1909 and Nebitdag in the 1930s, then production leaped ahead with the discovery of the Kumdag field in 1948 and the Koturdepe field in 1959. All the oil produced in Turkmenistan is refined in Turkmenbashy.

Oil production reached peaks of 14,430,000 tons in 1970 and 15,725,000 tons in 1974, compared with 5,400,000 tons in 1991. Since the years of peak production, general neglect of the oil industry in favor of the gas industry has led to equipment depreciation, lack of well repairs, and exhaustion of deposits for which platforms have been drilled.

From 1996: Turkmenistan - Industry. Would check EIA but the International section's on the fritz lately. Nothing listed at all in the Megaprojects Wiki. Even South Africa and Papua New Guinea have some action going on.

[copious.abundance]

You are correct, that should be pointed out. I have absolutely no doubt that much of these vast "barrels of oil" are actually boe-equivalents of natural gas. What % is oil, and what % is gas, time will tell.

As for the lack of things listed in the megaprojects Wiki, if you browse through the articles posted here (e.g. "Turkmenistan is set for a major oil and gas boom by 2030 given appropriate foreign investments in offshore fields in the Caspian Sea, officials say."), it should be clear that this is all brand-spanking-new. IIRC Turkmenistan was under a not-so-nice dictator until 2004 who neglected things like this. It will take several years of exploration for concrete projects to start materializing.

And, again, you salivate at these pronouncements from government/corporate officials that have precisely nothing backing them up other than what is dispensed in press releases and pass on their figures as indisputable fact

The guy who stated the figures in the opening article is the head of a geologic institute in Turkmenistan. I would assume he has a reasonable idea of what he's talking about.

[copious.abundance]

>>> Reuters <<<

Turkmens say to increase gas supplies to China
Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:23pm EDT

ASHGABAT, June 24 (Reuters) - Turkmenistan has agreed to increase the amount of gas it will supply to China to 40 billion cubic metres (bcm) from 30bcm every year, Turkmen state television said on Wednesday.

The two countries also signed a contract under which China would issue Turkmenistan a $4 billion loan.

Turkmen TV gave no further details during a visit by a Chinese government delegation.

Earlier this month, Turkmen TV said that China promised to issue Turkmenistan a $3 billion loan to explore the large gas field South Iolotan. [ID:nL5208945]

In 2006, Turkmenistan agreed to deliver to China 30bcm of gas annually through a pipeline to be commissioned this year which is currently being built.

[...]

[Mike Morin]

This is not news!

The Soviets discovered those resources decades ago.

Why do you think that the USA has had an increasing military presence in Afghanistan since 2001? Why do you think "Obama" has just launched a massive military offensive in Afghanistan? Why do you think that the USA supported the Taliban to drive the USSR out of the region? Why do you think that the USA has pandered to military dictatorships in Pakistan for decades?

Because, the multi-national oil interests want to build pipelines through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Arabian Sea.

Training grounds for terrorists... Yeah, right.

[copious.abundance]

Well, at least you're the first person in this thread who doesn't dispute the conclusion of the opening article.

As for exports to the US, I would think a far easier (logistically and politically) route to export Turkmen oil to the US would be via ship over the Caspian Sea, then via one of those SW Russian pipelines north of the Caucasus, then via ship through the Black Sea. As difficult as the Russians can be to deal with at times, they're a heckuva lot easier to deal with than some warring tribes in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

[Mike Morin]

Well, at least you're the first person in this thread who doesn't dispute the conclusion of the opening article.

As for exports to the US, I would think a far easier (logistically and politically) route to export Turkmen oil to the US would be via ship over the Caspian Sea, then via one of those SW Russian pipelines north of the Caucasus, then via ship through the Black Sea. As difficult as the Russians can be to deal with at times, they're a heckuva lot easier to deal with than some warring tribes in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Nah, think of the Halliburton revenues to build those pipelines. Think of the revenues from the wars. Think of all those extant tankers already cruising the Arabian Sea. Think of all those revenues building a terminal on the coast of W. Pakistan.

Think of all those future Memorial Days and Fourths of Julys and of course, don't underestimate the importance of retail sales for the Holiday Season.

Remember Christ died for you, and he wasn't the only one...


MM

[dorlomin]

Why do you think that the USA supported the Taliban to drive the USSR out of the region?

To help undermine the economic and strategic position of an ideologicaly opposed state that had 30 000 nuclear weapons pointed at the US and its allies?
By the time we get down the reasons for the US' support of the Mujihadeen, Turkmen oil was pretty low on the list. And for what its worth the Taliban only formed in the early 90s largely as a Pakistani ISI project. Us support in the 80s was at anyone willing to kill Soviets including groups such as those that now form the Nothern Alliance.

Why do you think that the USA has pandered to military dictatorships in Pakistan for decades?

Because the US has traditionaly had very little influence of India and during the cold war Pakistan was a key geopolitical position, close to China and the USSR as well as India.

[Starvid]

One other note: As I look at Turkmenistan on a map, it makes me wonder if the entire Caspian Sea basin is some sort of giant hydrocarbon trap. With Kashagan and other oil fields to the north, lots of offshore oil in the Russian, Iranian and Azeri Caspian Sea, plus, last year I posted an article about big oil potential beneath (what's left of) the Aral Sea, I wonder if this some sort of "new Persian Gulf."

Dude, that is so 90's, when the Caspian was supposed to be the second Persian Gulf. Turned out to be the second North Sea instead.

[Starvid]

This is not news!

The Soviets discovered those resources decades ago.

Why do you think that the USA has had an increasing military presence in Afghanistan since 2001? Why do you think "Obama" has just launched a massive military offensive in Afghanistan? Why do you think that the USA supported the Taliban to drive the USSR out of the region? Why do you think that the USA has pandered to military dictatorships in Pakistan for decades?

Because, the multi-national oil interests want to build pipelines through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Arabian Sea.

Training grounds for terrorists... Yeah, right.

That's just 100 % BS. If you want to know why you'd better educate yourself on the pipeline business. See here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/4/16/9380/00448

Or, to make a long story short:

if you cannot say who is able AND willing to put 2 billion dollars on the table UPFRONT, and explain how they will get paid back, then your project will not fly.

[Mike Morin]

if you cannot say who is able AND willing to put 2 billion dollars on the table UPFRONT, and explain how they will get paid back, then your project will not fly.

Just because someone wrote an article doesn't make it correct. 2 billion dollars is a very small amount of money in the oil and gas business. With the amount of gas and oil in Turkmenistan, that pipeline (a joint project, no doubt) will be paid off in no time at all.

Besides, with an irrational Capitalist Military Dictatorship, spending billions (a lot more than two billion) who are committed to executing robotic assisted genocide to secure the pipeline route, The potential revenues of liquid fuels that would flow through those pipelines would far exceed the paltry 2 billion that you quote as being prohibitive.

You're gullible.

If, the USAs Military Aggression is not to secure a pipeline route, then what do you BELIEVE the reason for the USA aggression?

[Starvid]

if you cannot say who is able AND willing to put 2 billion dollars on the table UPFRONT, and explain how they will get paid back, then your project will not fly.

Just because someone wrote an article doesn't make it correct. 2 billion dollars is a very small amount of money in the oil and gas business. With the amount of gas and oil in Turkmenistan, that pipeline (a joint project, no doubt) will be paid off in no time at all.

Besides, with an irrational Capitalist Military Dictatorship, spending billions (a lot more than two billion) who are committed to executing robotic assisted genocide to secure the pipeline route, The potential revenues of liquid fuels that would flow through those pipelines would far exceed the paltry 2 billion that you quote as being prohibitive.

You're gullible.

Dude, you know nothing about financing pipelines.

The guy who wrote that article, who happens to be an aqauintance of mine, is an investment banker. He helped finance the BTC pipeline and is currently working on offshore wind.

But ok, if 2 billion is lo little, who is proposing to pay for it? Do tell me.

If, the USAs Military Aggression is not to secure a pipeline route, then what do you BELIEVE the reason for the USA aggression?

Believe me, if they wanted to secure a pipeline route it would be secured already. Or, they would have built it across the Caspian and via the Caucasus.

The only problem is that there is already a pipeline from Turkmenistan to Europe via Russia. This pipe is not filled to capacity. Because of that, it will always be cheaper to use that pipe if you want to increase Turkmen gas exports than to use any other new pipe, as the old pipe is already built and the debt payed down.

That means Gazprom can always offer the Turkmens a higher price for their gas than the owner of the new pipeline can offer, and still make a profit. When it comes to Turkmenistan, Gazprom will essentially always be the low-cost operator, the preferred operator.

So, why did the Americans invade Afghanistan? I dunno, but you might remember those terrorist attacks 8 years ago? They were supported by elements within the Afghan government, so the US wanted venegeance and the ability to deny Afghanistan as a base of operations for al-Qaida.

PS. You're talking about liquid fuels here, which shows about how much you know about Turkmenistan. T-stan has always been known as the great gas resource of Central Asia, and this thread is the first time I've been considerable amounts of oil mentioned in relation to T-stan. People certainly didn't mention "oil" and "Turkmenistan" in the same sentence back in 2001. If you want oil in Central Asia, go to Kazakhstan.

[Starvid]

Starvid I believe you made Morin's point. The Neocons who invaded Afghanistan for the pipeline route are conservatives and will always distrust and fear the Russians.

Uh, no matter who they trust or not, they still can't make a business case for the pipeline. And as a result, they (who are "they" by the way?) haven't built a pipe in spite of occupying the place for 8 years. And as it's impossible to make a business case for that pipe, no one would have invaded A-stan because of it.

I mean, why do we even argue about this, when there already were perfectly good reasons to invade the place? Remember 9/11, that was like yesterday?

[Starvid]

Starvid I believe you made Morin's point. The Neocons who invaded Afghanistan for the pipeline route are conservatives and will always distrust and fear the Russians.

Uh, no matter who they trust or not, they still can't make a business case for the pipeline. And as a result, they (who are "they" by the way?) haven't built a pipe in spite of occupying the place for 8 years. And as it's impossible to make a business case for that pipe, no one would have invaded A-stan because of it.

I mean, why do we even argue about this, when there already were perfectly good reasons to invade the place? Remember 9/11, that was like yesterday?

Enron had a deal to build the pipeline. I remember 9/11. It had little or nothing to do with Afghanistan. Ben Ladin and all the hijackers were Saudi's. Or did you forget?

Enron, yeah that's a serious company... And I promise you that they hadn't got a "deal", but rather something like a memorandum of understanding, ie nothing legal which required them to pay $2 billion upfront. Because they didn't pay $2 billion upfront.

And the al-Qaida guys were mainly Saudi exiles living in A-stan, supported by the Afghani government. Don't you remember the US government threatening the Taliban that they would come there and kick their asses if they didn't hand over bin Laden or cooperate in his arrest?

[copious.abundance]

Oil!! Lots of oil!!

And gas!!

>>> LINK <<<

Turkmenistan lauds Caspian reserves
Published: July 6, 2009 at 2:38 PM

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan, July 6 (UPI) -- Turkmenistan announced developments in draft measures for exploration licenses to explore the hydrocarbon potential in the Caspian Sea.

The government in Turkmenistan issued a report highlighting the challenges envisioned for the development of new oil and gas fields on the Turkmen continental shelf in the Caspian Sea.

Lawmakers issued reports on developing a draft for exploration licenses. Turkmen reserves in the Caspian are estimated at 80 billion barrels of oil and some 194 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Turkmen government officials say the continental shelf holds about half of all national oil reserves and roughly 25 percent of the total gas potential, the Trend news agency reports.

The government report says about 80 percent of the offshore reserves are located in deepwater fields that are largely underexplored, suggesting greater potential is possible.

The government has offered 32 units for international bidders, including BP, Total, Chevron and Russian oil giant LUKoil.

Those bids are in line with new Turkmen laws considering national hydrocarbon resources.

[Mike Morin]

Starvid I believe you made Morin's point. The Neocons who invaded Afghanistan for the pipeline route are conservatives and will always distrust and fear the Russians.

Uh, no matter who they trust or not, they still can't make a business case for the pipeline. And as a result, they (who are "they" by the way?) haven't built a pipe in spite of occupying the place for 8 years. And as it's impossible to make a business case for that pipe, no one would have invaded A-stan because of it.

I mean, why do we even argue about this, when there already were perfectly good reasons to invade the place? Remember 9/11, that was like yesterday?

Enron had a deal to build the pipeline. I remember 9/11. It had little or nothing to do with Afghanistan. Ben Ladin and all the hijackers were Saudi's. Or did you forget?

Enron, yeah that's a serious company... And I promise you that they hadn't got a "deal", but rather something like a memorandum of understanding, ie nothing legal which required them to pay $2 billion upfront. Because they didn't pay $2 billion upfront.

And the al-Qaida guys were mainly Saudi exiles living in A-stan, supported by the Afghani government. Don't you remember the US government threatening the Taliban that they would come there and kick their asses if they didn't hand over bin Laden or cooperate in his arrest?

Halliburton (remember Dick Cheney) builds pipelines and military logistics, and other oil and gas field and related supplies. Then there's EXXON-Mobil, Shell, BP, Chevron and a host of others. Then there's the "folks" that builds terminals, then there are tankers to be used, perhaps built. Then there's the entire Capitalist Financial system which has an insane growth imperative. $2 billion for a pipeline is chumps' change.

Nobuddy ever said that Capitalism allocates resources in a rational matter. Nor do militaries...

Besides, how much revenge do you want from the Afghanis? Will the USA be satisfied when they have committed total genocide? At least then, their pipeline will be secure.

Or will it?

How do you define genocide?


MM