[americandream]

The Brit imperial class invented the House of Saud, got them managing (nominally) the worlds major energy store, have Western companies doing the extraction. The Saudis are next to fukkin useless in business but good at playing imperial overlords. They have a long line of equally dumb nations at our beck and call. The only thing wrong with this picture are the Jihad jocks. Other than that, I would say energy security is not sending the markets into a meltdown. The hikes over the past decade were related more to the world coming to terms with a huge expansion in oil needs....China. That is now in the mirror, capacity has come on line and is clearly there. I noticed Rockman has just added costing issues into the picture and yes, that is a given as reserves become more costlier to juice out. That will add pressure on the global system for efficiencies and innovation, deflation and competition. And new markets. To consider that capitalism is maxed out simply because we are arriving at energypotimisation, EVEN WHILST there is ample labour surplus in the system to ride us through for a while yet is to delude yourself, again. The issue really is whether we can innovate fast enough to find replacement resourcing.

The only real concern now is this Jihadism which is getting too big for its boots. We need to read the riot act here.

[ennui2]

SA is drilling like crazy now also but going essentially nowhere.

It's going somewhere alright. It's keeping oil prices cheap in an effort to kill fracking. Are we supposed to be quaking in our boots?

you insulted Stuart Staniford's impressive research at the Oil Drum

Yep. A site that shuttered its doors due to bad calls. I'd say they deserve it.

You're one of the few if any people mining through the archives thinking anything there is actually still relevant. In earlier threads people were hauling out quotes to analyze how it was their analysis was off-the-mark--a more useful pursuit for those who actually want to seek "Truth" instead of just validating their doomer narratives.

So stop shooting the messenger because I'm not the only one who doesn't worship at the dusty altar of TOD's archives.

[rockdoc123]

So not only is the global reserve base declining about 300 BILLION BBLS every decade the expense of replacing those reserves has increased to the point that oil had to rise more the 300% above it historic average. And that was primarily in just the US which had the capital access and infrastructure to take advantage of the higher price. But now we've returned to the historic price level. How long will the price hold here? No one can predict. But one can easily predict that the rate of new reserves that we've seen added to the global base won't be seen again until the price of oil increases dramatically. In the mean that decline continues to reduce the reserve base about 30 BILLION BBLS PER YEAR. By comparison the 3.5 BILLION BBL decline per year by the KSA doesn't seem very significant IMHO.

This is a point that IHS and WoodMac have been making over the past half year. With prices as low as they are there has been almost zero exploration worldwide. Anyone who has spent time on this site should be aware that discoveries of new fields have become less frequent, at higher cost and generally of smaller proportion over the past few decades. But at least while oil was in the higher price range there was enough incentive for drilling to progress. If the low price holds for any period of time then the production collapse will not be supported by conventional discoveries (not enough and the offshore frontier ones take too long to commission). Al Naimi used this as a reason for predicting a balancing of crude supply and demand. That leaves us to relying on unconventional. The US unconventional will do fine at the higher rate but it cannot support the rest of the world under a depletion and no conventional addition scenario. Understanding how difficult it will be in other countries to get shale production up to a meaningful level (evening assuming the rocks are all good, which they aren't) is all important to my mind. I think the roller coaster of peak production may have some serious dips ahead.

[rockdoc123]

When is the final dip, rock? Didn't you once predict 2015? Do you stand by that? Has world oil production entered into its final decline? How about you RM?

what I had said back in 2005 is that based on all the project production coming on stream/megaprojects/heavy oil back then that ~2015 would be peak ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL, which, of course, they never are.

Since then we got hit with 2008 and 2009 recession which started the peak off looking more like a plateau (something I did say was likely as there are more things involved than just oil production capacity and reserves in the ground) and with the shale revolution the whole face of the peak has changed. There is now a strong balance between new oil (from shale), lower prices which are further impacted by carbon taxes, pipeline limitations etc. As a consequence I think we are in for a prolonged plateau with some peaks and troughs along the way as a consequence of market forces, limitations due to available capital, black swan events etc. Predicting a final decline I believe is a mugs game until we understand how the whole shale piece will play out.

[americandream]

Predicting a final decline I believe is a mugs game until we understand how the whole shale piece will play out.

I dont agree with this fellah much but here, he is correct.

[americandream]

I am gonna meet you guys here in 2020, this month this day. Globalisation will be on target, liberal (proper) capitalists will be leading the charge, Islam will have been neutralised and the climate issue will be causing profound changes in open source style business.

I am going to meet you guys here and say, Bah, I told you so and I expect an apology from you fellows.

[ennui2]

Islam will be neutralized? Now that's wishful thinking for you. Have you been to too many Trump rallies or something?

I doubt you'll remember this prediction a week hence let alone 4 years.

[Ibon]

I am going to meet you guys here and say, Bah, I told you so and I expect an apology from you fellows.

Is this an example of the conscious social evolution you say we are heading towards?

[americandream]

Newf, good to hear that you're getting better sleep hours in--very important!

As to Minnesota, while most of rural Minnesota continues to be white, the cities and many suburbs have considerable populations not only of African Americans, but also Native Americans, Asians (we have one of the largest Hmong populations in the country), and East Africans (my neighborhood is sometimes called the Mogadishu of the Midwest. I hear Somali spoken pretty much everyday here.

There are certainly many here that feel threatened by and even quite hostile toward Muslims here, so I was actually surprised at how poorly the Drumpf did here.

Anyway, happy sailing, whenever you get away. May the risings seas always lift you closer to the heavens! :)

You better believe it bud. Muslims are not a race, but a religion. Headed by the same elite that got you boys in the US the trophy of victorious world power in the Cold War. Bestest buddies in being America's bitch (until they turn up next door and demand the freedom to make with the allah.) If it takes a Trump to rid us of this pernicious system on the road to a secular world, then so be it. And I give a damned wat a pseudo liberal American thinks.

[americandream]

For the uninformed.

Reformation does not come through how many letter boxes you discard from your womans wardrobe as she is liberated to wear bikinis. That is an effect, like gay reform. A social function of an economic imperative. Symbolic for the kufar host and nothing more unless accompanied by economic reform. Reformation of economics....end of debtors prisons, the liberalisation of debt or usury, reformed property laws and of course, the emergence of strong tertiary markets.

Much of the world is at best mercantilist but catching up fast with the London/NY circuit of capital. Islam however remains resolutely feudal. These people are at best playing a game with you out of either neighbourliness or neighbourliness.

[Hawkcreek]

Predicting a final decline I believe is a mugs game until we understand how the whole shale piece will play out.

I dont agree with this fellah much but here, he is correct.

Rockdoc (and Rockman) alway seem to have much better facts and figures to back up their arguments than most on this site. I always enjoy reading their posts.
It seems that many here want to use only the facts that might support their rather narrow points of view.

[americandream]

Predicting a final decline I believe is a mugs game until we understand how the whole shale piece will play out.

I dont agree with this fellah much but here, he is correct.

Rockdoc (and Rockman) alway seem to have much better facts and figures to back up their arguments than most on this site. I always enjoy reading their posts.
It seems that many here want to use only the facts that might support their rather narrow points of view.

You mean doom and associated fantasies...buying boats and floating off into the sunset. living on hilltops enjoying all the delights of bourgeoisie comfort whilst pretending that everyone else is just not with saving the planet....those bad apes.

[americandream]

As I perfect my understanding of the markets, I begin to realise what Marx and Adam Smith meant. Both from different points of the material perspective but remarkably close when it came to the big picture. These little intellectual minnows have no idea what lies behind evolution....no idea. We have only just started on our precarious journey.

[americandream]

Don't argue with engineers AD - you will loose. Engineers (not money) RUN the modern world.

Gas

Sorry mate. Wrong. I could move the world markets if I chose. I choose not to. For the moment.

[americandream]

Don't underestimate enlightened capitalists. We will not sit around like impotent fools and watch incompetent tosspots destroy our kids futures with stone age ideas and nonsensical voodoo.