by SeaGypsy » Sun 06 Jan 2013, 17:10:59
It's fish oil they are really fighting over in SE Asia anyhow, the confirmed crude plays are miniscule compared to other field regions. Playing up speculated plays is hoped to bring the interest of the big guns into defending the tiger nations from Chinese regional oligarchy.
All the noise in this region appears to be about oil and gas, from a distance, but up close it's much more about fishing and food. 2012 was the year China openly declared sovereignty over most of SE Asia based on some concept of ancient eminent domain (highly questionable given the deep tribal diversity which is the reality of this region).
Of course governments in the region hope to find massive quantities of oil/ gas, to power their growth. Indonesia is at tipping point and will join the rest of the region as net oil buyers this year or next.
It is highly doubtful there is a new mega field anywhere in SE Asia, something at scale to warrant at scale intervention by the west. If the west is to intervene, it will be against Chinese empiricism over resources generally, much more generally than just fossil fuels.
As someone living in the region I would rate the resource priority list more like: fish, rice, potable reliable water, agrible land, then oil & gas. The fact that folks easily blank out starvation of far away people but feel the pain of peak oil in their pockets each time they fill up or negotiate a new job for a lower wage for the first time in their lives gives a clue to the leprechaun search motive coming to dominate regional geo-politics. People at any level are almost completely unready for the fact that there is no pot of gold, no leprechaun, no vast pools of undiscovered oil or magical new alternative.
Only those close enough to the source of their own sustenance are directly aware of the delicacy of balance and minimum input requirements for life. Most of those are still fully dependent on a list of fossil fuel derivatives. Some are relatively capable of adaptation to go an without oil. Small boat fishing and rice farming have sustained many millions before the advent of the oil age. By 2050 we could easily see the entire South China Sea being a militarized fishing zone. By then it could easily have burnt all of it's known O&G without exports. With, even sooner.
