[PeakOiler]

See Previous Thread on Solar Water Heaters

[seahorse]

Thanks to the links on solar hot water heaters and the input.

Steam Cannon, from the few maps I've seen on predicted climate changes, it shows rainfall increasing here in the north part of Arkansas and Missouri. I haven't followed that issue very much though.

[Revi]

Solar hot water heaters are great! We have had ours for about three years and it works well. We got a rebate from the state, but we put it on just before the federal tax thing got started. We use very little propane now, and the water got up to about 95 degrees even in January! From March on it's around 120-140 degrees every day. If you have 2 hot water heaters and they are electric you will really save a lot with one of these. They work even when the electricity is out, because the little pv panel spins the pumps. We tried to do it ourselves, but the panels we had leaked, so we now have one professionally installed.

Scroll along to see the tank, and the one we made.

Solar hot water is well worth it, in my opinion.

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... ls_jpg.htm

[WisJim]

Even in colder and cloudier climates than Arkansas, solar hot water is cost effective, and will typically pay for itself in 10 years or less, in energy savings.

[smallpoxgirl]

Solar hot water heaters are a great thing, but $4k sounds overpriced to me.

[WisJim]

$4000 to $5000 installed is a reasonable insstalled price. It should last 20+ years with minimal maintanence, maybe replacing a pump sometime, and replace the antifreeze mixture in the system a couple of times in 20 years.

[steam_cannon]

Steam Cannon, from the few maps I've seen on predicted climate changes, it shows rainfall increasing here in the north part of Arkansas and Missouri. I haven't followed that issue very much though.

Yeah, the short term outlook may mean more rain and Arkansas has seen more rain. But higher average temperatures also means faster evaporation, worse dry spells and drought. So precipitation is only half of the story. There will be states that will be worse off, but from what I've read I don't want to invest my efforts into this area. Here are a few links...

[spoil]

[align=left]Precipitation VS Evaporation



This map shows increases in precipitation near Arkansas. But global warming is also bringing higher evaporation rates. Increases precipitation may not do much good in the face of persistently higher evaporation.

Hay shortage squeezes horse owners (2007)
"There's no hay because of last summer's drought and most of our excess hay went to Texas, where they've been in a two-year drought."
http://deltafarmpress.com/mag/farming_h ... _squeezes/

So even though the above chart shows increases precipitation for Texas, it seems it hasn't been enough to offset their drought problems causing shortages in things like hay.

"David Stahle, professor of geosciences who teaches a seminar on global change, said scientists are currently unable to determine which parts of the United States will increase or decrease in yearly rates of precipitation. However, there is evidence to support an overall trend of increasing precipitation, (increasing) evaporation, more intense rainstorms and drier soils."
http://tinyurl.com/38qmbt

"Arkansas sportsmen also said they have seen evidence of global warming in the state, including warmer and shorter winters, hotter summers, prolonged droughts and a decline of wetlands and migratory birds in the winter, including ducks."
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/200 ... 36149.html

If scientists are correct, you can expect average temperatures to rise in Arkansas. There will be more very hot days in summer, and winters will be milder. Scientists aren’t sure if the warmer conditions will result in more or less rain, but most models predict Arkansas will have more rain, with most of this increase happening in the summer. (This is good news for Arkansas)

Although Arkansas has a lot of groundwater and surface water in its rivers and streams, the agricultural areas in the eastern part of the state have taken much of the groundwater there for crops. In some places saltwater in the earth seeps into the fresh groundwater if the groundwater level gets too low. If conditions become warmer, even lower groundwater levels could result. Also, less water could enter the state in the spring and summer, when farmers need it most, from its sources out of state. (This isn't good news)

(And the following is an interesting opinion...)
Farmers may have a difficult time adjusting to climate variability. Increased temperatures during the growing season may not favor many of the plants that farmers have been growing for years. Unless Arkansas farmers can find new crops to grow and sell, they may have a difficult time staying in the business of agriculture. Global warming will significantly affect Arkansas’ overall economy and the livelihoods of the thousands of Arkansans in agriculture and related businesses.

PDF: http://tinyurl.com/2supex

Arkansas and climate change
"The frequency of extreme hot days in summer is expected to increase along with the general warming trend. ."
http://www.nextgenerationearth.org/contents/view/12

On average, Midwest precipitation over the 20th century has increased. The Hadley model indicates that this trend will continue, resulting in increases of about 25% from the present. The Canadian model suggests that these increases will be confined to the northern and western parts of the region.

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/na ... idwest.htm

Depending on the model, increased precipitation may tend to stray north and avoid your area, but there is presently uncertainty in knowing the extent and distribution of precipitation based on these models. But I believe the Canadian models have it right.

Historically, periods of higher ocean temperatures has resulted in drought conditions this area...

Mid-Holocene Droughts


This link has an excellent online simulator where you can look up probable changes in temperature and precipitation over time...
Climate Change: "projections for various regions in the US"

http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/data/select.cgi#map
These maps suggest a softer landing for the coasts.

A little bit farther west drought is certainly going to be a problem.

Scientists predict Southwest mega-drought (starting now)

"The consensus of the models was that climate in the southwestern United States and parts of northern Mexico began a transition to drier conditions late in the 20th century and is continuing the trend in this century"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17967097/
http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1240

An interesting scenario that came out two years ago...


America’s Breadbasket Moves to Canada (2006 Article)
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/1 ... to-canada/

Warmer Earth may slash farm yields
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16042134/

A slightly cheesy looking compilation of data...

Long Range Patterns of Drought/Flood Zones (NOAA Storm Track Data)
http://tinyurl.com/3dp9ox

----------------------------------------------------------------------

How fast will climate change take?

How fast these factors become important depends on the speed of climate change. While I was there we were moving into a pattern of regular droughts, regular fire bands and hay shortages.

Climate Change “Three Times Faster Than Worst Predictions”(2007 Article)
by the US National Academy of Sciences
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06 ... faster.php

Global Dimming and extreme climate change
"But perhaps the most alarming aspect of global dimming is that it may have led scientists to underestimate the true power of the greenhouse effect."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm

Global warming...more dramatic?
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic30534-0-asc-0.html

----------------------------------------------------------------------

In summary: For the next couple years Arkansas will do well economically due to increasing grain prices. But 10 to 20 years latter farmers will be feeling very stressed to produce grains due to average higher temperatures, heat waves causing problems with evaporation and drought. Just a few thoughts...

[/align]
[/spoil]

[Revi]

Whatever happens to Arkansas on the global warming front, a solar hot water heater is still a good investment. I figure that it keeps us from buying $500 worth of energy to heat oil per year. that means that the $5000 we invested is paying 10% per year. That's way better than money in the bank. You are lucky if you get 5% in a CD now. We love the hot water too. I took a long shower today, thanks to the sun. It never got above freezing outside, but it still made half our hot water today. Last week it was over 94 degrees. By March it will be 120 degrees every day.

An interesting thing is that the water heater works best when it is very clear. It doesn't matter what the temperature is, it just likes it clear. There were some days last spring when it was barely above freezing and the water got to 140, and then warmer days when it didn't get nearly as hot since it was hazier.

[CRACKERMAN]

I am trying to find some place where you can buy a hand cranked water heater and a hand cranked coffee pot. I must not be using the correct search term, but what I am looking for is something sort of like those battery powered radios / lights that you can run off battery power or you can just turn the crank.

Have any of you seen anything like what I am talking about?


I am also looking for any and all hand cranked chargers. Mostly when I search google, all I find are flash lights or documents that talk about them, but never link to one I can buy.

[alokin]

Never heard of a hand cranked water heater and I cannot imagine that it works. (I guess you mean that one for the shower). We had an electric water heater and it used up HALF of our electricity use, I really cannot imagine that you crank this with your hands, even not for a tea kettle.
Far more realistic I think is connecting a bicycle to a battery, and this is hard enough, but these constructions exixts.

[Rabbit]

I used a Hudsen Sprayer and a large bucket to take a shower before. You pour a kettle of warm water into the sprayer and then give it a few pumps to create pressure. The one I used held about 2 gallons. It's enough for a basic military shower.

[bobaloo]

Those had cranked lights and radios use about ONE watt of power. The coffee maker uses 600-1000, the water heater about 6000 watts. You'd need a long lever to get those 6000 people all cranking at once....

[Aimrehtopyh]

This might actually be doable with a heat pump of some kind.

The smallest air conditioner (heat pump) that General Electric makes requires 520 watts of input to operate. Too bad your body can only sustain about 100 watts of output through a stationary bicycle.

Does anybody make a heat pump that a dude could operate by lashing it to a stationary bike?

Maybe one of those little wine chests would have a compressor small enough.

[SheikYarbhouti]

There are other ways to heat water without using natural gas or electricity. If you have good sun in your area you can build or buy a solar water heater. They work really well, and can be as simple as a black garbage bag full of water set out in the sun (or one of these camping showers) or as complex as a 40 (or more) gallon setup that is integrated into the existing plumbing in your house. Or barring all that, just build a fire. Safely, of course. Once you've got hot water figured out, all you need for coffee is a good french press and you're set. Although if we're in a situation where both NG and electricity are scarce and very expensive, getting the coffee in the first place might be a larger issue...

[alokin]

depends were you're living, our solar water heater is a thermosiphon system and is very good for all climates at least as warm as the Mediterranean. As far as I know they can't deal with frost. We don't use the electric booster.

[pedalling_faster]

i used to think about this when i did a lot of bicycling in the hills around Woodside & Portola Valley, what some people call the "Santa Cruz Mountains".

weighing 150 pounds with 25 pounds of bicycles & gear, i was generating 175 ft-lbf/ second, if i was climbing at a rate of 1 foot per second. if i could bear not to stop & look at the view on Highway 35 (looking West through the redwoods towards the ocean), i would keep going to the high point on that particular route (looking East through the redwoods).

for 45 minutes. i think it came out to a 1/4 horsepower, my maximum output.

(disclaimer - it's been a while. it's possible i'm mixing up ft-lbf/ second, a power measure, and watts, and horsepower units.)

i would need a shower from that hand-cranked water heater, but any cold water would be welcome at that point.

short version, what people have already said - it takes a huge amount of human energy output to create enough energy to heat water.

another example - a pool with 12 lanes, 3 people in each lane, each swimming their approximate maximum for one hour.

most of that energy goes into the water of the pool. it's about 100,000 gallons, admittedly, but it doesn't get any warmer. starts at 83 F, finishes at 83 F. of course there is a layer of concrete & then the earth, so the pool water loses some heat through conduction that way (the earth sits at about 55 degrees F in most places, a few feet down.)

bottom line - it's possible. you could set up something where you crank for 3 hours and heat up 1 gallon of water. it would be more efficient to do it naked, otherwise you'll have to wash your clothes & their will be an energy loss there. plus, unless you're somewhere really cold, after an hour most people would be drenched in sweat & say, "the heck with it", and just pour the lukewarm water over themselves.

it's a good example though. if you do the calculations for any significant exercise, converting into watt-hours, counting the calories burned, etc., it becomes obvious what an incredible windfall fossil fuels are, energy wise.

[MadScientist]

heat your water with wood, coal, other biomass, or solar.

replacing "hand cranked" with "bike cranked" was good advice.
like pedalling said, you could generate power on your bike cranked mill for an hour and then take a cold shower .

every power requirement has variable solutions. Your location and personal needs are likely unique.

The most important part of "Planning for the Future" is understanding your energy needs and the energy sources available (human, animal, wood, coal, wind, geothermal, solar, hydro). Then using this energy toolbox to create a system to meet your needs post-peak.
For most people this is a personal project for their residence.
For the community leaders it extends to building resilience into their community as a whole. Some people, like Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens are experienced enough with energy systems to affect an entire region.

[kpeavey]

Cavitation water heating is being developed but beware of over unity problems.

An easier solution may be a sauce pot and a campfire

[CRACKERMAN]

I have heard of people developing coffee pots that work off a regular 9 volt battery. How long would it take to hand crank enough power to re-charge a 9 volt battery?

[bobaloo]

1000 watts of power is equivalent to 14.43 kcal/min. If your coffee pot is 1 liter in size, it will raise water from room temp to boiling in about 7 minutes with 1000 watts of heat being delivered to the water.

A 9 volt batter will supply 9 volts with at total rating typically of 300-400 milliamphours of energy. IOW, it will supply 9 volts at 400 milliamps for one hour before dying (simplified). That's a total of 3.6 watt hours. According to my calculations that's enough energy to raise the temperature of the water by 5.03 degrees C, not really enough to make good coffee.

You can't heat water with human powered electric, it just takes too much energy (and you can't heat water with a 9 volt battery either).

I have a wood fueled water heater, sure is a lot easier to cut and split wood to fire it than it is to crank a bike for days...