ROCKMAN wrote:The main difference in the different scenarios is the peak production level, where the worst case scenario peaks at just above 83Mbpd in 2008 while the best case scenario reaches a peak level of 94Mbpd in 2013 (figure 9.4). Thus the time span is only 5 years but the production level span is 11 Mbpd."
Revi wrote:I like it. We can reasonably plan what's going to happen now. I think we are on a plateau until around 2010 or 2012, but who knows? This is a great find. We can actually plan what's going to happen now.
Peak oil is a reality.
rockdoc123 wrote:Several years ago I posted somewhere on this site my projection for peak oil which was based on data from WoodMac and IHS Energy along with a bit of editing based on my own knowledge in some of the projects. That analysis gave a peak somewhere between 2012 and 2015 so I'm not surprised by the results of the report. That being said something that is being missed in the analysis I believe is not what the actual peak is but rather what the plateau looks like. Almost all of the assumptions that go into the WoodMac and IHS Energy views on reserves and production deal with 2P volumes. Little in the way of credit is given to "technical" reserves as WoodMac refers to them. These could be from field extensions or from improved recovery from existing wells. Improving recovery factors is definitely something that can be done and with increasing technology we may see more and more reserve growth in the future. What this would do is not increase actual peak but rather prolong the plateau to something that looks rather bumpy with a slow but steady decline followed by rapid accelarated decline once recovery factors have been maximized.
ROCKMAN wrote:Here's that link again:
Giant Oil Fields?
evilgenius wrote:Don't techniques that vastly increase production in existing fields also make for a substantial dropoff in production a few short years later?
ROCKMAN wrote: For the last two years both EM and Shell have seen the average daily production decrease year -to - year. I believe this is the first time that has happened in over 50 years.
The best mitigation plan is to use the free-market.DantesPeak wrote:....
Abstract
The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy.
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Vogelzang wrote:Imagine using these to provide heat for oil sands processing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_tower
Vogelzang wrote:Imagine using these to provide heat for oil sands processing.
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