[RdSnt]

Geez, as usual everyone is missing the main point.
We are fast approaching a negative EROEI (Existing Rockets On Excited Individuals).
As the traditional supplies of rockets are depleted and we relay more and more on the heavy rocket sand resources there will be an inevitable failure to keep up with demand, leading to more people to blow up than rockets to do the job.
There is simply no way we are going to be able to make enough.

Dont make more Rockets, make more powerful and deadly rockets. Kill more pple with less rockets. Supply problem solved.

Ah ha! there's the flaw. More powerful rockets require more people to make them. But more deadly rockets kill more people. Eventually you run out of people to make big rockets.
The better way is to powerdown, make smaller rockets, kill fewer people; sustainable destruction.

[Geko45]

Listen folks, it is simple math. What goes up must come down. When any rocket is launched, it begins by gaining altitude very quickly. Then, as its fuel depletes it begins to level out its trajectory and inevitably it will reach its peak altitude before tipping over and starting to head back down.

Now if you take the trajectories for all known rockets and aggregate them together then you can deduce the total URR (ultimate rocket recovery) for the world as a whole. Using this model, we can infer the date on which the world will reach ‘peak rocket’. Given the growing number of mature rockets, some believe this date is approaching fast (if it hasn’t happened already).

So basically, the S is about to HTF when these rockets begin to come back down. Some look to advanced guidance systems as hope for a soft landing, but many of the older (and larger) mature rockets are incompatible with such technology. However, even if it were possible to extend the trajectory of the rockets we have, that would only make their decent curve (and therefore their inevitable impact) that much more severe.

[TheTurtle]

This Saturday, January 12, elections will be held for the Taiwanese Legislative Yuan.

Anyone have any thoughts on how this will turn out?

Due to people growing tired of the zany shenanigans of President Chen Shui-bian and therefore his party (the DPP), I think the KMT will regain power after having it wrested from them in 2000. If the KMT do gain control of the legislature, it will probably put an end to the murmurings for independence that Chen has been proclaiming of late.

What do you think?

[FreakOil]

"Murmurings of independence" will not stop for a long time because a lot of Taiwanese, probably the majority, hate the boys in Beijing and look down on the mainlanders.

[FreakOil]

We've got an Asia Discussion! Whooopeeee!

[TheTurtle]

"Murmurings of independence" will not stop for a long time because a lot of Taiwanese, probably the majority, hate the boys in Beijing and look down on the mainlanders.

Hmmm ... polls I have read seem to suggest that the majority of people in Taiwan favor the status quo. A small number want independence and a small number dream of reuniting with a non-communist mainland.

I see that as being independent of how many people hate the boys in Beijing. Lots of people hate the boys in Beijing. I hate the boys in Beijing. An interesting guy from your part of the world, Longhair, seems to hate the boys in Beijing. Lots of mainlanders hate the boys ... probably a great many of them hate the boys in Beijing.

[TheTurtle]

It looks like the KMT has won by a landslide.
AP article
This should pave the way for Ma to win the presidency in March (I've read that he was already ahead in the polls by 20 points).

I now expect to see more direct cross-strait flights between Taiwan and the mainland authorized. This should help to revive Taiwan's stagnant economy.

For a while at least.

[Cid_Yama]

The Pentagon has chosen Guam, a quirkily American place that marries the beauty of Bali with the banality of Kmart, as the prime location in the western Pacific for projecting U.S. military muscle.

U.S. Marines by the thousands and U.S. tax dollars by the billions ($13 billion at last count) are to be dispatched to Guam over the next six years, along with a major-league military kit that includes Trident submarines, a ballistic missile task force, Navy Special Operations forces and Air Force F-22 fighter jets. Nuclear-powered attack submarines and B-2 stealth bombers have already arrived, and preparations are being made to accommodate aircraft carriers.

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/artic ... 60356.html

The fact that surrounding areas are rich in oil deposits has led to speculation that the Spratly Islands could be an untapped oil-bearing province located near some of the world's largest future energy consuming countries. Such speculation has given the Spratly Islands with great strategic value, and has fueled disputes over ownership.

One Chinese report estimates that there are 225 billion barrels oil equivalent of hydrocarbons in the Spratly Islands alone. If 70% of these hydrocarbons are gas, total gas resources (as opposed to proved reserves) would be almost 900 Tcf. If the rule-of-thumb for frontier areas were applied to these resource levels, the Chinese estimates would imply potential production levels for the Spratly Islands of almost 1.8 Tcf annually.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... ly-oil.htm

http://www.american.edu/projects/mandal ... pratly.htm

[frankthetank]

Sounds like Japan wants them out and is footing some of the bill!

[Cid_Yama]

<b>Taiwan's Chen heads to disputed Spratly Islands</b>

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian left Saturday for Itu Aba Island of the disputed Spratly Island chain in the South China Sea, TVBS television reported.

Itu Aba is located about 1,600 kilometers southwest of Taiwan. A 1,150-meter runway on the isle was completed at the end of last year, and Taiwan military transport planes have started arriving and leaving since late last month.

http://www.japantoday.com/jp/news/426898

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian on Saturday boarded a military plane to the disputed Spratly Islands to assert a sovereignty claim, in a move likely to provoke tensions in the region.

The Taiwanese military dispatched an unspecified number of F-16 warplanes and Kidd-class destroyers to escort the president's transport plane, TV news reports said.

The move immediately drew protests from Vietnam, which in a statement earlier this month, said it "resolutely opposes all acts violating the sovereignty of Vietnam over the archipelagos".

Vietnam, Taiwan, China, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei each claim all or part of the Spratlys and the nearby Paracels, and all but Brunei have a military presence on one or more of the atolls. The waters around the islands are believed to contain substantial petroleum reserves.



http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 60/1/.htmllink

[Tanada]

As much as I hate to say it this is exactly the situation the UN was designed for. Given that Oil is completely fungible then the only ones with anything to loose on a world scale are the countries listed above, the UN should be doing everything it can to calm and settle these disputes through active diplomacy, not just looking on as bystanders.

[Cid_Yama]

"Self-determination is a right recognised by the United Nations, and it is the people who are masters of their nation's future," the Taiwanese foreign ministry said in a statement.

"In no way should the independence of one nation be denied by another. "Taiwan is a member of the international community that cherishes democracy and freedom, and the government is delighted that the people of Kosovo have the fruits of independence, democracy and freedom to look forward to."

Communist China reacted quickly to the comments from democratic Taiwan because it is deeply concerned that the island may be trying to push ahead towards independence of its own.

Cross-strait tensions have escalated recently as Taiwan prepares to hold a referendum next month on whether to try to join the United Nations under the name "Taiwan", which China regards as a move towards formal independence.

link


China, which claims sovereignty over the self-governing island, has not ruled out the use of force if Taiwan moves toward formal independence. Washington has become concerned in recent years about Beijing's rapid military buildup in the area, which appears to be aimed at gaining superiority over the island's defenses and deterring U.S. intervention in any conflict.

For the Chinese military, the capacity to destroy U.S. navigation and communications satellites could undermine the overwhelming technological dominance that U.S. forces have enjoyed in recent conflicts, according to U.S. and Chinese security experts.

They say that space weapons including antimissile satellites could contribute to Beijing's "area denial" strategies, which are intended to keep U.S. forces at bay in a war over Taiwan.

In academic papers, books and magazine articles, Chinese strategic thinkers have identified U.S. dependence on satellites for battlefield communications, guiding smart weapons, reconnaissance and weather forecasting as a potential weakness that could be exploited.

Senior U.S. military commanders have acknowledged that without the advantage of satellites, U.S. forces could be forced to fight as they did decades ago, without detailed information about the battlefield and enemy movements.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/18/asia/spy.php

<b>Taiwan speeds up weapon imports</b>

Taiwan has set up a firm to speed imports of advanced weaponry that may otherwise be stalled by political wrangling and by fears abroad of upsetting China, officials said on Friday.

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian seeks to buy advanced US weapons as China aims more missiles at the island.

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411366/1584468

[brianlkennedy]

Greetings from Taiwan,
I am from California and have lived in Taiwan for 15 years now where I teach and write about criminal law and procedure. I also write on different aspects of martial arts. My wife and I have published three books (two law books, one about martial arts history).

I look forward to meeting the people here and learning about oil, prices and the future.

Take care,
Brian

[yeahbut]

Greetings from Taiwan, I am from California and have lived in Taiwan for 15 years now where I teach and write about criminal law and procedure. I also write on different aspects of martial arts. My wife and I have published three books (two law books, one about martial arts history).
I look forward to meeting the people here and learning about oil, prices and the future.
Take care,
Brian

Welcome Brian! I lived in Taipei, teaching English and having a pretty amazing time way back in '93. What's it like these days?(just a tiny question!) Taipei was very polluted and chaotic when I was there, the roads were being torn up for the subway, the traffic was insane and there were still a lot of the old buildings around. I imagine it's changed a great deal since then.

I loved my time there, I was looked after so well by some great locals, and I used to enjoy going out into the mountains for motorbike rides and swims in the rivers. I've always intended to go back for a visit but somehow it's never happened. I should probably do it soon before air travel becomes the province of the super rich only...

[eXpat]

Welcome Brian! enjoy your time here.

[RedStateGreen]

Welcome!

Where in CA are you from? I'm a transplant from the Inland Empire myself.

[brianlkennedy]

Hi folks,
Sorry for the delay in getting back but this week got kind of jammed up with work. I am not complaining, the way the U.S. and the Taiwanese economies are tanking, I feel blessed that I got a job to do that brings in enough to live on.

Yeahbut,
Wow, I got here in 1993. You mentioned that Taipei was: “polluted and chaotic when I was there, the roads were being torn up for the subway, the traffic was insane and there were still a lot of the old buildings around; every single one of those things is still true! No fooling. The subway (MRT) construction, the lunatic driving and the old scenic, but not so safe, buildings are all still around. Now of course in many ways the city has changed, but I suspect you would still find it quite familiar in its tone and character.

When I first got here I taught law for Soo Chow University Law School and (to bring in the real money), I taught for ELSI (Ken Hu’s school) in the business english division. Yvonne Wang was running the business english section back then. Which of the schools did you teach for?

RedStateGreen,
Small world department; I was a deputy public defender in Victorville in the 1980s. Our office also served the Big Bear Lake and Needles courthouses. So we are both ex-Inland Empire-ites. Sticking with the desert, in the early 1990s I was a deputy prosecutor in Imperial County, both in El Centro and in Calexico. Prior to all that I went to undergrad and law school in San Diego.

I really liked Victorville back then. I was married to my first wife and we lived on a nice big lot (a bit over one acre) and we got so see a bit of snow in the winter and although it was hot in the summer, it was dry heat so I did not mind. Plus, for some reason I always loved the Joshua Trees that were all over the place up in Victorville back then. Yeah, interesting place, a lot different than Taiwan.

Thanks for the welcome folks. My wife and I appreciate that.

Take care,
Brian

[brianlkennedy]

Hi Turtle,
Are you here in Taiwan or in Mississippi? I have lived here in Taiwan for about the past 15 years and just found this forum.

As for the elections; well Prez Ma has been in office now for a couple of weeks. We shall see how things unfold.

And...for the first time since I have been here, thing are getting kind of nasty at the gas pumps. One of Ma's first problems maybe adjusting gas rates.

take care,
Brian

[yeahbut]

Hi folks,
Sorry for the delay in getting back but this week got kind of jammed up with work. I am not complaining, the way the U.S. and the Taiwanese economies are tanking, I feel blessed that I got a job to do that brings in enough to live on.

Yeahbut,
Wow, I got here in 1993. You mentioned that Taipei was: “polluted and chaotic when I was there, the roads were being torn up for the subway, the traffic was insane and there were still a lot of the old buildings around; every single one of those things is still true! No fooling. The subway (MRT) construction, the lunatic driving and the old scenic, but not so safe, buildings are all still around. Now of course in many ways the city has changed, but I suspect you would still find it quite familiar in its tone and character.

G'day Brian, it's great to hear about Taipei, somehow I feel reassured that it's still a little bit crazy. Believe it or not, I learned to ride a motorbike in Taipei- every traffic experience I've had round the world since then has been tame by comparison!
I can't believe they're still building the subway, I trust that it's the outer reaches of the lines you're talking about there...actually I had a late night adventure in the half-built subway, some mates and I had been drinking(surprise, surprise)for quite a while, and we decided it would be a great idea to climb down the 30 or so metres of scaff and explore the tracks. Being Taiwan, the barrier to us doing this was a strip of security tape ...so fortunately we got down without incident, and headed off down the tracks. An hour later we were sobering up, tired and starting to feel a bit freaked out, so we climbed back up. O f course, we found ourselves in a silent, industrial part of the city which we had never seen before...I believe I got home about dawn that time

When I first got here I taught law for Soo Chow University Law School and (to bring in the real money), I taught for ELSI (Ken Hu’s school) in the business english division. Yvonne Wang was running the business english section back then. Which of the schools did you teach for?

My qualifications for teaching English in 1993 were: 3 years as a builders labourer, 3 years vineyard work and half a horticultural diploma. Even in those early, rather wild west years, this restricted my options to buxibans, kindergartens and conversation lessons with businessmen(my favourite as it usually involved getting paid to eat, drink and have a good chat). So I certainly wouldn't have worked anywhere reputable that you would recognise, but I gave it everything I had and really enjoyed it, and my students seemed to too.

So how is it over there? Do you feel China's shadow at all, or not worry about it?How's the price of gas, there are subsidies aren't there? How do you think Taiwan will get on if oil really is peaking now?(just another couple of small ones for you there)

[TheTurtle]

Hi Turtle,
Are you here in Taiwan or in Mississippi? I have lived here in Taiwan for about the past 15 years and just found this forum.

Excellent, someone who knows Taiwan well. Welcome to the forums. I've been to Beijing a couple of times and I've been a student of things Chinese for more than three decades, but no I have never been to Taiwan. I will continue to watch events unfold to see how Ma handles things.