[Ferretlover]

UBS job cuts: UBS poised to lay off 2,000 staff 2 Oct 2008

Financial Times—UBS is poised to lay off an additional 10% of its investment banking headcount in a fresh wave of layoffs that wil see up to 2,000 staff losing their jobs by the end of this year, sources said.
At least 550 of the redundancies are likely to be in the fixed income division, with an extra 300 or more being taken from the corporate finance and advisory arms. Even UBS’ world-leading equities franchise will fell the heat, accounting for at least 250 layoffs.
The property unit is expected to be particularly affected, following the Swiss bank’s decision to drastically slash its exposure to mortgage secutities.

Financial Times

[3aidlillahi]

Citi expects to write off between $8 billion and $11 billion and has secured funding from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

I wonder how much money Dubai and the like are putting into our economy. It has to be a stunning amount. They're more confident in the future of the US economy than even JD.

[lowem]

Um. Wait. I'm a citizen and taxpayer. That's *my* money ....

Argh. Don't all these countries have better things to do with their reserves than to buy banks which everyone has discovered should be worth less than zero?

Maybe they have some kind of grand strategic plan or something, but at this point I sure don't see why they're throwing good money after bad.

[3aidlillahi]

Um. Wait. I'm a citizen and taxpayer. That's *my* money ....

Argh. Don't all these countries have better things to do with their reserves than to buy banks which everyone has discovered should be worth less than zero?

Maybe they have some kind of grand strategic plan or something, but at this point I sure don't see why they're throwing good money after bad.

The good news is that you guys have a supposed $330 billion sovereign wealth fund, which I imagine is where this money for the bailout (takeover) is coming from. The bad news: that estimate is from Morgan Stanley.

Is your SWF funded with taxpayer money? It seems like nearly all, if not all, other SWF's are funded with natural resource revenue, such as oil and gas in UAE, Kuwait, KSA, and Norway. But Singapore isn't the most resource-rich nation on Earth.

$100,000 a person is pretty damn good. Too bad you can't take out your share now, huh?

[lawnchair]

I wonder how much money Dubai and the like are putting into our economy. It has to be a stunning amount. They're more confident in the future of the US economy than even JD.

I'd argue that they're even more worried about their own situation.

If things turn Greater Depression over here, it will get ugly, no doubt. There will be riots. There will be hunger. There will be demagogues.

However, we will also be buying a whole lot less oil. And by "we", this will be the entire West. Prices will go down, and even then, we won't be buying as much. Oil states will be hurting badly.

Saudi Arabia, though, (as a fer'instance), has 28 million people on a land that couldn't sustain the 4 million it had less than 40 years ago. The population pyramid skews toward 16-25 year old males.

They will burn the mother****er down.

[3aidlillahi]

However, we will also be buying a whole lot less oil. And by "we", this will be the entire West. Prices will go down, and even then, we won't be buying as much. Oil states will be hurting badly.

Saudi Arabia, though, (as a fer'instance), has 28 million people on a land that couldn't sustain the 4 million it had less than 40 years ago. The population pyramid skews toward 16-25 year old males.

Yes, but in a decade, the US will definitely lose Mexico and the UK as suppliers completely. That's 10% right there. We'll likely lose several other mpd of supply as well, not to mention our own dwindling reserves. There's a good chance that in 10 years, our only suppliers will be Canada and ME OPEC nations. This will cause a great dependence for us on them, giving them leverage. Well, leverage enough to say "Don't kill us for oil. We'll get it for you in exchange for food/water."

Just because we'll be using less, doesn't mean we won't need any, nor that our supply situation will remain constant.

---

You bring up a good point though in that another reason they may be buying up our banks and other institutions is to protect themselves from attacks by us. If they hold a stake in our economy, then we're unlikely to engage in radical decision-making, lest it hurt our already fragile system.

Although, I don't know why it's the Singaporeans that are investing and not the Saudis...

[PenultimateManStanding]

There's a good chance that in 10 years, our only suppliers will be Canada and ME OPEC nations.

Hell, there's a good chance that within ten days the truckers will stop rolling. No food distribution. . .

[Roccland]

Very odd story...

Last week Monday I was at a large bank...opening a new account...

I looked out the window from the desk I was at and saw a UBS branch across the street.

I asked my banker if UBS was "still around"...

He looked at me like I was half cocked...and said ..."ummmm yeah"...

Yeah ok...

Whatever you say.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Very odd story...

A lot of people kept credit cards with zero balance for a "rainy day." I had one with Bank of America that was paid off and zero balance. I went to get some cash from it and it was canceled. Another card had a ten thousand dollar line of credit on which I had a three thousand dollar balance. That one got canceled too. I've got a few cards that still work, but for how long I don't know.

[Dawn]

Although, I don't know why it's the Singaporeans that are investing and not the Saudis...

They are already pumping oil out off the coast of Florida... They will get their investment back and then some.

Are we allowed to drill there, yet?

[lowem]

They are already pumping oil out off the coast of Florida... They will get their investment back and then some.

Are we allowed to drill there, yet?

Heard that Congress let the bill that disallowed drilling expire, so I'd suppose that with no current laws *blocking* it, it is *allowed* now, n'est-ce pas?

[3aidlillahi]

Heard that Congress let the bill that disallowed drilling expire, so I'd suppose that with no current laws *blocking* it, it is *allowed* now, n'est-ce pas?

There are ranges of possibility. I think 50 miles or less from the coast, you need the state's permission from the legislative branch. Between 50 and 200, it's now open. 200 and out was always open, IIRC.

They are already pumping oil out off the coast of Florida... They will get their investment back and then some.

Are we allowed to drill there, yet?

I had no idea that Citigroup, which the Singaporeans bought, drilled for oil and gas. XOM has a market cap more than four times Citigroup. They'd be better served with buying up 2% of XOM than 10% of Citigroup. Unless XOM is planning on building sub-prime housing out in the ocean...

[lowem]

They'd be better served with buying up 2% of XOM than 10% of Citigroup. Unless XOM is planning on building sub-prime housing out in the ocean...

I fully agree with that. They should be buying companies with real tangible physical assets instead of companies with toxic paper assets.

[lowem]

I was looking for suitable photos to describe Singapore's recent collapse of 34.8% in the exports figures.

I found this one of cargo ships sitting idle in the Singapore harbour area, dozens of them as far as the eye can see. This is a good one :



Picture telling a thousand words and all that.

[lowem]

More good stuff :

Carriers use idle ships to store empty boxes

Ocean carriers are using idled container ships to store empty boxes as an alternative to laying up vessels amid declining traffic in all major trades.

Several large container ships sitting at anchor off Singapore and Hong Kong have been spotted over the past two months with “deckloads of empty boxes,” says AXS-Alphaliner, the Paris-based container consultant. "State of the art container ships have thus become mere storage hulls.”

Some cash-strapped carriers figure it is cheaper to pay a handling charge once and have their empties loaded on their vessels rather than pay the daily per-TEU storage fees charges levied by terminal and container depot operators.

With a growing inventory of unwanted empty containers, more carriers will opt for floating storage to “save significant amounts of money,” Alphaliner forecasts. It says idled container capacity had reached 392 ships of 1.1 million TEUs, or 8.8 percent of the world fleet, by Monday, up from 302 vessels of 800,000 TEUs two weeks ago. The figure is set to increase in the coming weeks as carriers suspend more services and return chartered vessels when they come off hire.

[lowem]

Another one that gives us some idea of the number of ships involved :

Idle boxship capacity tops 1.1m teu

CONTAINER shipping faces at least another four years of misery, and probably more, as supply continues to massively out-strip demand.

New figures from AXS-Alphaliner show that the number of unemployed boxships has soared over the past couple of weeks as lines continue to cancel services.

By the beginning of this week, an estimated 392 ships with combined total capacity of 1.1m teu were idle, according to AXS-Alphaliner.

So that's roughly 400 of these guys :

[Leanan]

Wow. Great photo. Thanks for the report from Singapore.

[ReverseEngineer]

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore said its economy may shrink as much as 9 percent this year, the most since independence in 1965, as a deepening global recession drives down exports and manufacturing.

Bloomberg

Don't I remember a while back one of the economic pundits here at the time, since departed, touting the sustainability of Singapore and its fabulous economic strength with the semi conductor industry? I can;t remember who it was though.

Anyhow, a 9% decline in the economy there is absolutely astounding, and a real Canary in the Coal Mine as far as the Industrial Exporting economies of Asia are concerned. It is a real bad sign for both China and Japan of course. At this rate of decline, any trade surplus they had and any FOREX they hold will evaporate inside 6 months, meaning basically that even the FLUSH nations with all the production machinery people here bemoan the loss of are gonna be as bankrupt as the debtor nations. How can we borrow from bankrupt nations? Is that possible? Think the IMF will come up with a scheme for this?

Its my hypothesis that right now, as we speak, there is not a single country in the world that is solvent, because of massive asset deflation. Basically, none of the infrastructure from Factories to McMansions is worth what its priced at. The Fed can print more currency, but it can't make these assets worth buying at anything but a firesale price. There is no clear way to make a profit off them once you buy them, because first off the cost of production of anything right now exceeds the price you might sell it at, and second you are rapidly losing any market to sell your products to, because unemployed people can't afford to buy them at ANY price.

Deflation is clearly leading Inflation in the race to the bottom at the moment, and at the pace its going I just don't think its possible to run the printing press fast enough or move the money out into the hands of the consumers fast enough to stop the collapse of the asset values.

Contrary to what you are being fed by the MSM and George Soros, the Bottom is nowhere in sight here as of yet. Singapore is going down the toilet at the Speed of Light, and about everyone else is following along in the same direction. We'll all be swimming in the cesspool together pretty soon.

Reverse Engineer

[lowem]

1. Note that the 9% rate is the lower end of the "current forecast" for the year.

2. Note that 11.5% is the *actual* year-on-year GDP contraction for Q1 2009 :

Singapore’s $161 billion economy contracted 11.5 percent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 4.2 percent decline in the three months ended December.

3. Maybe this thread could go under "Asia Discussion".

4. Nope I wasn't that tout.

5. Sure sucks to be an export-oriented economy in a global depression.

6. At an official rate of GDP contraction of over 10% I *am* calling it a depression.

7. Hallelujah.

[SeaGypsy]

I knew for sure when I went through there last week. 1st the usually sus as hell security were completely absent minded. People were smoking under NO SMOKING signs with long hair and all.
Worst was the best restaurant in the airport, the old mixed one at budget terminal had been caved to make room for a farking MACCAS!!! I was livid!
Given though that wages in Singapore are triple what they are anywhere else in that part of the world they have a fairly long way to fall although far less than the USA. Rents are outrageous, not far off NYC.