[AdamB]

Perhaps....at long last.......the world is at PEAK OIL.

CHeerS!

After 5 of them claimed this century and #6 in 2018 not having been relegated to just another bad call yet, it seems that it is a smooth move that you preceded your statement with "perhaps".

I hope you are right, I never want to see real Peak Oil in my life time......

Allegedly, you already have. 6 times. The current one has been going on for 4 years, and I dunno, live seems to have continued pretty well until Covid cocked everything up.

Ultimately, we might even see the end of globalization as it has been pitched to us for all of this century, and that might be a good thing as well, once all the growing pains shake out.

...things that are often entertaining to think about online are hell in the real world. I am a big reader of history and am always aware that, for little fish like me, the vast expanse of mankind's journey has been extremely unkind.

I believe you are correct, but I would bet you would be hard pressed to find folks admitting it. Unless you originate from a 3rd World country perhaps, in which case you might have seen it up close and personal.

I would like to think that part of what we are going through now is a transition to something better for the developed world (the less developed world might never be better, and might just ship off malcontents to the developed world where they can succeed and leave their beginnings behind), in the form of cleaner energy, more acceptance that labor really is worth more and helps create a better society than turning everyone into financial service money handlers looking to make an easy buck, etc etc.

I remember my days of blue collar work, and I recall them with fondness. Came home smelling of hydrocarbon fumes at the end of the day, washed it all away, and completely forgot about it until the next day, and was happy each day for a job well done.

The white collar world is quite different nowadays than it was even as recently as the early 90's, moves faster, falls are more severe, and less....forgiving? Interesting? Anyway, nothing going on in the world right now is a surprise, but it is unsettling as it happens. Felt the same way when young in the 70's.

[Plantagenet]

I never want to see real Peak Oil in my life time- things that are often entertaining to think about online are hell in the real world. I am a big reader of history and am always aware that, for little fish like me, the vast expanse of mankind's journey has been extremely unkind.

Exactly right.

As far as I'm concerned when four horsemen of the apocalypse come riding......PESTILENCE, FAMINE, WAR, and DEATH.......I don't want to see a fifth horsemen sliding in beside them for PEAK OIL......or another horsemen carrying a banner for CLIMATE CHANGE......and another one with a sword labelled METEOR IMPACT.........and another one with a sign that says MEGA VOLCANIC ERUPTION......and another horseman with an electronic reader board that says CURRENCY COLLAPSE/INFLATION........and so on.

Personally, it seems to me that thanks to Joe Biden's incompetence the USA is well on its way to CURRENCY COLLAPSE/INFLATION right now. And we're already experiencing the early parts of CLIMATE CHANGE disasters around the globe right now. AND, personally I expect global PEAK OIL to happen perhaps 5-10 years out. METEOR IMPACTS and MEGA VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS aren't on my schedule yet but they can happen at any time. In contrast the original four horsemen of the apocalypse.....PESTILENCE, FAMINE, WAR and DEATH have been riding high for several years already. We've got our Pestilence in the Covid virus, which can mutate into something more deadly at any time. We've got our WAR in Ukraine. We've got our FAMINE coming up soon caused by the war in Ukraine and of course, we've got lots and lots of deaths from COVID, WAR and FAMINE happening all the time.


I'm concerned when four horsemen of the apocalypse come riding.

GOOD LUCK TO YOU. GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

Cheers!

[C8]

I think a big problem may be that US oil companies no longer feel safe to engage in long term projects like exploration, testing, etc. There is a fear that climate activist influence will cause western governments to pass rules, laws that undercut production and profits. Right now, liberal governments around the world seem to view fossil fuel companies as dangerous and outdated.

But I also don't believe that emerging countries will go along with western green demands- poor countries will choose whatever is the cheapest fuel. As western nations reduce demand for fossil fuels these will become cheaper and more attractive to third world nations.

So if western oil companies are limited or hobbled then it would seem that non-western oil companies will take over- most likely Chinese companies. These new Eastern oil giants will have much control over who gets priority in oil shipments. Saudi Arabia would also have less of an incentive to require the US dollar to buy oil as the US won't be buying as much from them?

I don't have confidence that this will work out to being a smooth transition or that it will meet any climate goals.

[AdamB]

I think a big problem may be that US oil companies no longer feel safe to engage in long term projects like exploration, testing, etc.

If you mean "safe" by their standard measure of IRR, then absolutely. And this is just a metric of investment versus the time it takes to get you your money back, and then some. And incorporates your estimate of risk on everything, including the ones you mention.

But I also don't believe that emerging countries will go along with western green demands- poor countries will choose whatever is the cheapest fuel. As western nations reduce demand for fossil fuels these will become cheaper and more attractive to third world nations.

You are probably right. A developing countries job is to develop, why should they be handicapped by using an expensive means when all the others got their doing it on the cheap and polluting the joint up? So...cheap and polluting it is for them too!

I don't have confidence that this will work out to being a smooth transition or that it will meet any climate goals.

I arrived at that conclusion somewhere between Kyoto and COP21. Events since COP21 have just demonstrated the validity of the idea. But people like to THINK they are making progress, and get terribly irritated when you whip out a single chart tracking our species effective progress on solving our problems. Just ONE of them by the way, but a good one. Can you see all our effective human action in there somewhere? I might be missing it, being a natural pragmatist.

[C8]

Here is a graphic of the world's oil companies by size. It doesn't break down how much of their reserves is local vs. worldwide. If big western oil corps. like Exxon and BP are kneecapped by their governments then some other oil major will have to step in to engage in exploration. Does anyone know which companies would be most likely to step into that role? Which companies have the ability to do worldwide exploration?

Below is a link and image to show relative size among the major companies. I can't get the image to shrink so you can see it all. Does anyone know how to do that?

I don't know if the Saudi and Russian companies really explore worldwide. Since there isn't much oil in China, I would assume that the Chinese companies do more world exploration. This could mean that Sinopec and PetroChina could step into the shoes of Exxon, Chevron, Shell.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked ... the-world/

[AdamB]

I don't know if the Saudi and Russian companies really explore worldwide. Since there isn't much oil in China, I would assume that the Chinese companies do more world exploration. This could mean that Sinopec and PetroChina could step into the shoes of Exxon, Chevron, Shell.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked ... the-world/

Unfortunate that the graphic mixes and matches reserves and resources. Not just bad form, but it leads to the usual sort of confusion as to exactly what is even being added up to get the totals.

Reserves aren't worth much as an expression of long term production viability as peak oilers argue the issue, resources and the conversation of resources to reserves is where the future turns.

[C8]

I did not know it would be this confusing:

Oil and Gas: Difference Between Resources and Reserves
Posted on January 25, 2018 by Anka Baranski

The words “resources” and “reserves” are thrown out a lot whenever there are discussions about the economic activities or other pertinent information involving the oil and natural gas industry. Of course, like in any other frequently associated pair of words, it is easy to confuse and interchange the two. However, the oil and gas industry has strictly remained true to the difference between resources and reserves.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RESOURCES AND RESERVES
Oil or gas resources are different from oil or gas reserves. Take note of the following definitions:

Resources: The term “resources” strictly pertain to the oil and/or gas deposits that have been considered to be physically present in a geological formation using a method of exploration. However, despite this deemed presence, the term corresponds to discovered and undiscovered oil and gas/or deposits, as well as recoverable and unrecoverable capacities.

Reserves: The term “reserves” is a subcategory of resources. When used in the oil and gas industry, it specifically pertains to the oil and/or gas deposits that have been regarded as technically and economically feasible to extract from a geological formation.

SUBCATEGORIES OF RESOURCES AND RESERVES
In addition to understanding the difference between resources and reserves, it is also important to know different related terms used in the oil and gas industry. Hence, aside from reserves there are other subcategories of resources used in the Petroleum Resources Management System of the Society of Petroleum Engineers or SPE. Below is the quick definition of each:

Reserves: Commercially viable oil or gas deposit that is not yet recovered or extracted from a geological formation

Production: Recovered and economic viable or commercially available oil or gas deposit extracted from any given date.

Contingent resources: Potentially recoverable oil and gas deposit but are still no yet commercially available because of project immaturity due to contingencies.

Prospective resources: Potentially recoverable oil and gas deposit but are not still commercially available due to absence of ongoing projects.

Unrecoverable: Proven oil and gas deposit or reserve but is not commercially viable due to being unrecoverable or impossibility of extraction.

There are also other further subcategories of reserves defined and promoted by different organizations, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. There are essentially two general subcategories of oil and gas reserves. These are proved resources and unproved resources.

Proved resources pertain to oil or gas reserves that have been proven with a high level of certainty and thus, economically and commercially viable based on an analysis scientific data and/or actual production performance. Under proved resources are more specific subsets:

Proved developed reserves: Oil or gas reserves that are capable of being recovered and produced from existing wells using tested or advanced extraction and production methods and in consideration of projected costs.

Proved developed nonproducing reserves: Oil or gas reserves that are in reservoirs near currently producing wells that with marginal additional investment, can become economically and commercially viable.

Proved undeveloped reserves: Oil or gas reserves that are in reservoirs that are not yet been drilled or developed into existing wells but are still considered proved resources with economic and commercial value.

On the other hand, unproved reserves are oil or gas reserves with technical and scientific, economic and commercial, contractual, and/or regulatory uncertainty. Recovery is uncertain. Under unproved resources are more specific subsets:

Probable: Oil or gas reserves that are suspected of being proven eventually using further gathering and analyses of scientific data and/or the implementation of existing or novel extraction and production technical capabilities—in addition to projected probable recovery of 50 percent.

Possible: Oil or gas reserves that might be existing but cannot be guaranteed with a mid-degree of certainty due to the absence of additional scientific data or lack of efficient extraction and production capabilities—in addition to a projected probable recovery of less than 10 percent.

How is it possible to talk about the future with any sense of clarity or certainty if there are these giant unknowable grey areas? Is there a chart or graphic that breaks down the companies by what we are certain they have?

[AdamB]

How is it possible to talk about the future with any sense of clarity or certainty if there are these giant unknowable grey areas?

You tell me. You and I do it every day, does it bother you, knowing the odds of your existence being wiped away by a small piece of space debris tomorrow at lunch is a calculable number? The probability is low, but not zero.

Those of us who manuever within the world of reserves and resources are always operating in the future, within the rules of physics and rules and regulations, the general interpretation of the odds of something happening, based on the geologic and engineering information available.

Do it long enough, more importantly do it and get the answer you claimed in advance and...well....you realize that it isn't as unknowable as you might think.

Is there a chart or graphic that breaks down the companies by what we are certain they have?

Maybe. I've never seen one, if only because reserves are only required for some within the rules of a given country or system. Closely guarded secrets in some companies and countries. Resources, the category that really matters, you certainly won't find much information on. And when the answer is a probability density function in both reserves and resources categories, under varying future economic assumptions, do you really want to use the word "certain"? What probability range of outcomes do YOU want in an answer, in order for it to be "certain"?

[JuanP]

I did not know it would be this confusing:

How is it possible to talk about the future with any sense of clarity or certainty if there are these giant unknowable grey areas? Is there a chart or graphic that breaks down the companies by what we are certain they have?

You could find charts with what companies CLAIM they have, but I absolutely couldn't believe with any degree of certainty those claims. So, my answer to your question would be that, IMO, it is not possible to find what you are looking for.

Talking about the future with any sense of clarity or certainty is a fool's errand. Nobody knows the details of the future. You can claim that at some point in time fossil oil extraction in a finite world will peak, or that, maybe, it already has happened. But clarity and certainty about that fact will only come decades after the fact.

[AdamB]

I did not know it would be this confusing:

How is it possible to talk about the future with any sense of clarity or certainty if there are these giant unknowable grey areas? Is there a chart or graphic that breaks down the companies by what we are certain they have?

You could find charts with what companies CLAIM they have, but I absolutely couldn't believe with any degree of certainty those claims. So, my answer to your question would be that, IMO, it is not possible to find what you are looking for.

Of course it is. But you won't find it, the results aren't made public because the public didn't pay for them. The resources involved in doing this level of work from the bottom up are beyond substantial, and have huge chunks of proprietary information involved.

Talking about the future with any sense of clarity or certainty is a fool's errand. Nobody knows the details of the future. You can claim that at some point in time fossil oil extraction in a finite world will peak, or that, maybe, it already has happened. But clarity and certainty about that fact will only come decades after the fact.

Too bad Happy McPeaksters had to learn this one the hard way, and managed to turn the entire idea into a joke because of it. Importantly though, the idea isn't a joke, even if that was the result of their uninformed and idiot meddling in the topic.

[JuanP]

"Global oil price jumps amid supply fears"
https://www.rt.com/business/556677-glob ... ply-fears/

"Crude hits $120 a barrel as Saudi Arabia hikes prices for Asia

Saudi Arabia's oil and gas giant Saudi Aramco has unexpectedly raised its selling prices for Asia, sparking global concerns over tightening supplies.

The world's largest oil exporter increased the official July price for its flagship Arab light crude by $2.10 a barrel from the June level, Aramco announced on Sunday. The hike was much larger than market expectations of a $1-$1.50 move, Reuters reports, citing market analysts.

The Brent crude benchmark gained 42 cents above $120 a barrel at 09:15 GMT on Monday, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 35 cents, trading above $119 a barrel, nearing a three-month high.

Earlier in June, OPEC member states and allied producers announced plans to boost oil output in the coming months by 648,000 barrels per day instead of the planned monthly increase of 432,000 bpd. This followed a global spike in prices during May, on concerns over Ukraine-related Western sanctions and their potential impact on Russian oil exports.

Analysts predict that oil prices will climb further despite OPEC’s promised production boost, which they view as insufficient in the face of the US summer driving demand surge, the easing of Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and uncertainty over Russian supplies."

To me, the most interesting part of this article is that Brent and WTI are essentially selling for the same price now. WTI has been cheaper for many years; I don't even remember how long. That provided the US economy and American consumers a certain advantage over many other places in the world, particularly most of Europe and Asia. That is not the case anymore.

[C8]

To me, the most interesting part of this article is that Brent and WTI are essentially selling for the same price now.....That is not the case anymore.

Why are the prices converging? What does this mean?

[AdamB]

To me, the most interesting part of this article is that Brent and WTI are essentially selling for the same price now.....That is not the case anymore.

Why are the prices converging? What does this mean?

Not much. Refinery capacity and margins, seaborne capacity, whatever OPEC claims to do versus what they actually do, demand in the major industrialized nations, it is interesting for some market watchers I suppose but isn't particularly meaningful in the greater context of things. What is important to the traders and marketers of the world, not just the Old Worlders in Europe and the New, are these prices.

[Plantagenet]

When you look at the last half century in the USA you see that spikes in oil prices tend to produce recessions.

We've got a heck of a spike in oil prices going on now.........


I predict the high oil prices we're experiencing now will help trigger another recession in the USA in the near future.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

I predict the high oil prices we're experiencing now will help trigger another recession in the USA in the near future.

Cheers!

Each oil price spike has labeled causal effects on the chart. And then a recession was somewhere nearby. Pretending that oil prices are the cause, rather than the effect, of OPEC embargoes being one of the more amusing ones.

I predict that the current oil price spike will be labeled "War in Europe" and "OPEC Refusing to Dip Into Surplus Capacity". And a recession might certainly follow the EVENT and knock on consequences, supply chain problems, inflation, etc etc, just like about all the other ones on the chart.

[theluckycountry]

When you look at the last half century in the USA you see that spikes in oil prices tend to produce recessions.

We've got a heck of a spike in oil prices going on now.........

They also correlate well with a collapse in the $US. Which makes sense since the OPEC nations don't want to suffer just because of instability in the US.

From the 00's

[jato0072]

We might still might see higher prices before significant demand destruction and demand falls back in line with supply.

[Plantagenet]

Biden announced today he is going to Saudi Arabia in July to beg Prince Muhammad and the rest of OPEC to pump more oil.

However, there doesn't seem to be much excess capacity available in OPEC to pump more oil......in fact OPEC oil production has actually been falling in spite of the spike in oil prices.

Opec-oil-output-falls-in-may-adding-to-pressure-on-cartel

Its not supposed to work this way.....higher oil prices are supposed to lead to more oil production.

But so far that ain't happening during the oil spike of 2021-2022. Oil prices have been going up for a year but increases in oil production aren't keeping pace.

Perhaps OPEC is waiting until Biden goes to Saudi and gets down on his knees and personally begs OPEC to pump more oil ......or perhaps OPEC no longer has significant extra capacity that they can quickly turn on to meet demand.


Did you come all the way to Saudi just to blubber over oil, Mr. Biden? I hate to see an old man cry. And please get up off your knees.....

Cheers!

[jato0072]

Who knows if that slide is accurate. Drill baby drill so we can stay on the plateau! I don't want to think what the downslope will be like.

[C8]

Why should the Saudis increase production? They are finally making a killing and the Dems will keep the US drillers from ramping up production much with higher taxes, permit fees, regulatory delays, etc.

If there is a major recession then oil prices will decline- they probably see this coming and want to get what money they can while it lasts.