radon1 wrote:Better not, Six. You know, Miami is full of Russian pop-singers, the country's latest secret weapon. If you go nasty, they will get their orders from Kremlin and will go out and sing on the streets. Their singing is so horrible that your agony will be slow and tortuous. They have just had tested this secret weapon over the New Year's TV concert in Russia - the country barely survived. Better not mess up with their evil master.
Funny post, in other words:
I gather you'd rather not talk about the Russian "no strings attached" arms deal for Egypt. That's fine, I'd rather not talk about it either because this is just getting kind of serious and depressing.
It's a Big Deal if Russia steps into America's shoes in the middle east. This was the prize the Soviets always wanted, and we kept them out all through the cold war and beyond. Every USSR war plan called for invading the middle east first and securing the oil. The oil was crucial.
So what does that mean now, if the middle east winds up in Russia's SOI,
because Russia will just sell the weapons and prop up dictators and never give anyone any pesky human rights / democracy lectures? Does it even make sense for Russia? You will get blowback, you know. Making these "no strings attached" arms deals will wind up arming the same muslim sects that cause you problems in Chechnya.
You really sure this is a good idea? What if Egyptians start hating Russia down the line, just as Iranians hated us so bitterly for "no strings attached" propping up the Shah.
I guess in geopolitical chess, checkmating Uncle Sam trumps all other concerns. But think about it, does that really make any sense? Is NATO on your border any kind of rational threat, compared to what else Russia may get mixed up with in the middle east?
I'm not sure what the US gameplan is about the middle east, exactly why we're pulling back. If it's because we don't need the oil so much anymore due to domestic production then I guess that makes sense. I could say, then, okay let Russia have it and all the problems. We need a rest.
We can hang out with Ukrainians instead, waving their EU flags. Maybe this will be the next cold war -- an alliance of democracies versus an axis of totalitarianism. Russia, China, and all the world's dictators on the other side.
The map will change -- middle east may go with Russia, and we may get Ukraine.
However, the West's biggest trump card remains -- our culture. Just like that pop music you mention. That's Western. Our culture is a powerful force, cheesy as it may be at times but folks seem to like it, and it has actually moved the muslim world forward quite a bit. There are people in Russia and Egypt and Ukraine who don't want just some money in their pockets -- they want our cultural values too, and freedom, and human rights and civil liberties. They also want freedom from what they see as too much religious control and oppression. Pussy Riot wasn't just protesting oppression from the State -- they were protesting the church too.
Getting to a bottom line on all this Russia stuff..Persoanlly, just as a redblooded sixpack American voter, at a gut level, I only care about Russia if it just looks like Putin is wiping the geopolitcal map up and our leaders are clueless. I'm sorry, I grew up in the Cold War, and never lost that existential angst about it. Maybe some British felt this way as their Empire pulled back into the sunset. I'm just used to presidents like Reagan, where you really feel "well okay he is on top of all this."
I wonder what a Reagan and Putin matchup would have been like?
Reagan had Gorbachev to deal with, Gorby was actually a good and decent man. At Rekyavik, Gorbachev was prepared to get rid of nukes forever.
Getting to the bottom line..If Russia goes too far poking at us Radon, then as much as I like you and Dissident and as much as Americans want to like Russians, and vice versa, fact is that if it goes too far then we're going to be in another cold war paradigm. At that point it's just a full-out competition. It won't matter anymore who is right or what's best for Ukrainians or Egyptians, both our sides will just compete and push at each other's borders because we have to.
The situation isn't quite there, yet. Russia's GDP is the same as Brazil (not an insult, Brazil is a rising future power, I'm saying you guys can't afford a cold war by yourselves). Russia would have to ally with China for another cold war.
Bottom line -- if Putin goes too far one day, then I will be quiet and you won't see me going on about it because then it's too late.
I'll just shut up and vote for stronger leadership when I cast my ballot. I'm sure Russians feel the same way too. So the best thing for both sides is if our leaders could get over it already and both compromise. If giving up a missile shield in Poland and sharing Ukraine would stop Putin from building an axis of rogues alliance in the world, if Russia could really join the West if we pull NATO back, then that would be fine by me.
Here's the honest to goodness truth: NATO can't exist without an antagonistic Russia. The best way to defeat NATO would be to make it irrelevant.