[Pops]

The bigger question is will we have the capability 15 -30 years from now to revisit the situation even if we needed to?

I don't think it will be that long.
Depletion doesn't sleep, the sweet spots are being pumped as we speak, because they are sweet.

[kublikhan]

Kub, GDP measures bupkis (note*). It includes government debt and so is trillions and trillions overstated.

Oil at $64 saw the implosion of the US and the European economies, propelled the world's poor into oil/food chaos, and left China with a hollowed-out manufacturing base and a still-borne consumer economy. Whereas $20 fueled the great post-WWII economic and population explosion.

The world's poor have seen extreme poverty and hunger rates halve from the era of cheap oil in the 90s. China in particular was a success in pulling millions of people out of extreme poverty and millions more into the middle class.

Remarkably, this poverty rate has halved worldwide, from 43% in 1990 to 21% in 2010. Since 2000, the acceleration of growth in developing countries has cut the numbers in extreme poverty outside China by 280m.

How did the global poverty rate halve in 20 years?

A World Bank report shows a broad reduction in extreme poverty — and indicates that the global recession, contrary to economists’ expectations, did not increase poverty in the developing world. The report shows that for the first time the proportion of people living in extreme poverty — on less than $1.25 a day — fell in every developing region from 2005 to 2008. And the biggest recession since the Great Depression seems not to have thrown that trend off course.

“This is very good news. There has been broad-based progress in fighting poverty, and accelerating progress. There’s a lot to be happy about.”

Dire Poverty Falls Despite Global Slump

Data from the Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 shows that the number of people living in extreme poverty has been cut from 1.9 billion to 836 million, with most of that reduction coming after the year 2000.

When it comes to hunger, the proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions has fallen in line with the extreme poverty figures – down from 23.3% in 1990–1992 to 12.9% in 2014–2016.

How much has global poverty fallen over the past 25 years?

The increase in average incomes and the fall in levels of absolute poverty, in particular during the last decade, suggest that an increasing proportion of the world’s population is neither rich nor poor by national standards but finds itself in the middle of the income distribution.

In 2009 the middle class included 1.8 billion people accounting for the highest number of people belonging to this group. This expansion continues. The size of the “global middle class” will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030.

An emerging middle class

The United Nations describes it as a historic shift not seen for 150 years. The new global middle class in China, India and Brazil have propelled their economies to equal the size of the industrialised G7 countries. By 2050, they are forecast to account for nearly half of world output, far surpassing the G7. One of the most remarkable feats in the world has been the lifting of about a billion people out of abject poverty.

The rise of the global middle class

From 2001 to 2011, the share of Chinese who are middle income jumped from 3% to 18%. According to International Monetary Fund data, China is now the world’s largest economy, producing 16% of all goods and services. From 2001 to 2011, the poverty rate in China fell from 41% to 12% and the poverty rate in India dropped from 35% to 20%. That moved 356 million Chinese and 133 million Indians out of poverty, or 489 million people in total.

China’s middle class surges

[kublikhan]

Just because I disagree with something you said "World economy can't handle oil over $30" doesn't mean I think peakoil is bupkis.

[Pops]

The drilled/yet-to-be-fracted wells are spare capacity awaiting high price and renewed demand.

no, lol, they are just an accident of speculation, they are money losers.
Spare capacity is something you have on purpose, because you have "spare capacity".

Not something you have because your high priced product was overproduced.

Spare capacity is what reduces the fear that some event like a hurricane will cause a shortage. It reduces the fear premium, lowers risk and reduces price.

KSA only has about a million bopd spare capacity right now, that is if you believe the press releases. Not very much in the big pic.

[Cog]

The Arctic will get drilled. If not by Shell then by someone else. If there is oil on the planet, it is going to get produced eventually.

[Cog]

The Arctic will get drilled. If not by Shell then by someone else. If there is oil on the planet, it is going to get produced eventually.

Cog, you might be a nice guy but that is a really stupid comment. Can you defend it?

Do you even capitalist, bro?

If there is a demand for a product that exceeds supply, the price goes up. When the price goes up, someone is going to want to make money on that transaction. Unless you are a techno-greenie, and I know you are not, nothing is going to replace oil to power modern society. Do you really think Russia is building bases and investing in ice-breakers up there just because they just like cold weather?

[Pops]

Russians do have the nice hats




OTOH the Dutch have some nice ones too

[Pops]

...hats...

[Plantagenet]

the Dutch have some nice ones too

Nice …..what are you looking at there, Pops….hats, was it? Really you mean, ahem, nice hats?

[ROCKMAN]

And so we don't forget...there already is oil being produced in the Arctic waters:

The first oil from Prirazlomnaya - The platform installation was towed to the Pechora Sea in August 2011, however it took 2.5 years before the production started in December 2013. In 2014, Gazprom expected to deliver at least 300,000 tones of the Arctic crude.

[Hawkcreek]

Do all the Dutch girls have skinny arms and great big ... hats?
Makes it look kind of like an inflated market.

[ennui2]

Just because I disagree with something you said "World economy can't handle oil over $30" doesn't mean I think peakoil is bupkis.

Pstarr is a binary thinker. You either interpret peak oil his way or he'll brand you a corny.

[ennui2]

wait. I thought is was the evil speculators that crashed the world's economy. Now it's the credit crisis?

Speculators padded the price of crude. The credit crisis crashed the economy before those (padded) oil prices would have. But I don't expect you to ever agree with that. You'll just fall back on ad homs and post more pictures of self-driving cars to attempt to cast me as a clueless corny.

[ralfy]

The world can afford more expensive oil, but only if it uses credit that was meant for middle class conveniences. Meanwhile, the middle class relies on sales of these conveniences plus higher returns on investment to maintain its lifestyle.