[patience]

Hmmm. I bought some junk US coins as a hedge against US dollar collapse, thinking to keep it to pay property taxes, which I'm sure will inflate if the dollar does. Indiana even had a bill introduced this past year to accept payment in certain forms of gold and silver, but I don't think it went anywhere. My thought was, if the Fed dilutes enough, the states may do this as CYA against currency collapse. At least the coins are legal tender, right?

Now, I'm wondering if it might be better just as a market play, but there is the problem of sorting out an infinite number of factors about when to sell, either way. It's not my last bucks, so I can wait and see.

I expect silver to go up to the 20's this year, but being so volatile, will undoubtedly crash again. I' think I'll just hold on to it for a while. Some say that in the event of a currency collapse, silver is as good as anything. Other thoughts?

[dunewalker]

Patience, I'm afraid that if you trot in to the county tax collector with your bags of "junk silver", they will just empty one out and start counting quarters. On the other hand, if you flashed them some rolls of .999 silver rounds, they might possibly do business. I've always felt this about junk silver, even in the barter world, because most folks, in my estimation, are not familiar with the metallurgy of older silver US coins.

[JJ]

I think that guy is just taking a punt.
First of all I've never heard of a kontradieff wave. K-cycles yes, but not waves.
Secondly he determines that the retracement isn't a full ABC retracement based on timing alone. Looking at the chart I would say it is impossible at this stage to say if it is a We B or a larger Wave 3 (or even large w1 or larger w3).
Although Silver can be quite volotile we have to remember that the recent bottom was the result of a bank shorting 138M ounces. So to assume that Silver is going to go down and retest or go below that level is quite an ask. If it took that kind of intervention then, what will it take now and who is going to dare to do it?

As technical traders always assume that whatever the chart shows is the result of a free market. Furthermore he assumes silver is going to act as an industrial commodity alone and not at all as a monetary metal.
So I would be careful taking his POS $9 prediction as gospel.

Micki, someone emailed me this:

http://trendocracy.blogspot.com/2007/08 ... -wave.html

[Micki]

They are using the terms wave and cycle interchangably. Personally I would think of waves as a chart pattern, much like Elliott wave. Kondratieff only goes as far as to look at what goes up and what goes down, not any finer granularity and therefore in my opinion not really a wave patters. More like tidal flows.

Well since I am in such an anal mood let me disagree once again with the notion that silver only can go up if dollar tanks. I personally think that is completely wrong. Silver bing BOTH industrial metal AND monetary (less so from banking persperctive than say gold but increasingly so among investors) it is driven by two separate forces. Add to this dishoarding of reserves and huge short positions, it is reasonable to expect silver prices to shoot up even if the dollar firms up. It is in that case a simple supply demand inbalance will be addressed by moving the price. Combine this with increasing use of silver in electronic applications where a multifold increas in silver price still only would have a neglible impact on total product cost, and you have even more bullish scenario if economy recovers independently of what USD does.
So as much as USD tanking seems like the likely next driver, it is not the only possible one.

[patience]

dunewalker,

The bill introduced in Indiana last Fall to accept gold and silver in payment for debts owed to the state, specifically named pre-1964 US 90% silver coins as one of several coins, (including all the common gold coins from Canada, Africa, and others) they would accept at MARKET VALUE for payment. The clearinghouse was to be a gold exchange bank in Switzerland, and also would accept gold "credits" on that bank.

The bill apparently died in committee, but had numerous sponsors, so I think it will come back next session. At this point, no, I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but the idea is already in the state house. Anyhow, there are lots of ways to get your value out of the coins. I realize it is a gamble, so I didn't put all that much into it. I bought in at 11 to 1, so I am ahead for now. If the tax thing doesn't work, then it's just a market trade.

[evlana]

It looks to me like silver is developing a huge inverse head and shoulders on the yearly chart. If this plays out, we could go over 20 and higher.

[AAA]

silver going to $1000 .... within 10 years

Another reason why I am going on break

[OutOfGas]

Junk silver coins and 1 to 10 OZ silver bars are a good way to buy silver.

The 100 to 1000 OZ bars are less per ounce, but would be harder to transport and barter with in a crisis.

I feel better about the silver I have in the lock box at the bank than the CD I have paying 2%.

If TSHTF silver will still have value. Will the $ ?

[truecougarblue]

It looks to me like it will challenge last year's highs. If it breaks resisitance it will be something to behold. If it double tops, look out below!

[patience]

OutOfGas,

Uhhh, I'd get that silver out of the bank. Look into how the FDIC takeover process works, and look into what happened when gold was confiscated in the 30's. Lockboxes ain't the place to be, IMHO.

Other than that, I'm with you.

[Micki]

I agree.
Remember what happened in UK not too long ago?
http://peakoil.com/europe-discussion/br ... lit=raided

[some_math_guy]

The best way to 'invest' in physical silver IMO is to buy 1988 Canada Olympic sterling coins. They were widely issued for the Winter Olympics, have a $20 CDN face value, retail for about 22$ CDN and contain 1oz of silver. 'Investing' in these coins was not very attractive when silver was 5-10$ an ounce, but now that silver has been parked above 10$ for several years (currently at 16$), and with bar charges / premiums for rounds and silver bars coming in at a few dollars an ounce anyways, we're getting close to the point where buying a coin for 20$ face value containing about 16$ of silver is a pretty damn good deal since there is no risk of loss. How is this, you say?

You will be paying roughly 22 CDN$ for a coin that can be redeemed at any time, anywhere for 20 CDN$ (it's legal tender in Canada). If silver goes to 30$, your coin will be worth 30$. If silver tanks to 4$, your coin is still legal tender (20$ face value), and you can sell it on the open market for about 22$ CDN. With this approach you have all of the benefits of holding physical PM. The premium above silver spot is almost negligable at current prices (roughly equivalent to the bar charge premium on physical silver). Essentially, you are putting your money into an investment with tremendous upside potential but no risk.

I also think this might be a good investment for Americans for the same reasons as above, plus if the US$ devalues against the CDN$, they would make money (or more accurately, not lose money) as well.

This is a more conservative approach since you are essentially paying a small premium to hedge your investment. You will not 'make' money until silver is 22$/oz or more, but you cannot lose money either. I think of it like 'cash', with upside potential.

Thoughts?

[truecougarblue]

I used a similar train of thought as a hedge buying $5 Maples when silver was below $10.

[JJ]

The best way to 'invest' in physical silver IMO is to buy 1988 Canada Olympic sterling coins. They were widely issued for the Winter Olympics, have a $20 CDN face value, retail for about 22$ CDN and contain 1oz of silver. 'Investing' in these coins was not very attractive when silver was 5-10$ an ounce, but now that silver has been parked above 10$ for several years (currently at 16$), and with bar charges / premiums for rounds and silver bars coming in at a few dollars an ounce anyways, we're getting close to the point where buying a coin for 20$ face value containing about 16$ of silver is a pretty damn good deal since there is no risk of loss. How is this, you say?

You will be paying roughly 22 CDN$ for a coin that can be redeemed at any time, anywhere for 20 CDN$ (it's legal tender in Canada). If silver goes to 30$, your coin will be worth 30$. If silver tanks to 4$, your coin is still legal tender (20$ face value), and you can sell it on the open market for about 22$ CDN. With this approach you have all of the benefits of holding physical PM. The premium above silver spot is almost negligable at current prices (roughly equivalent to the bar charge premium on physical silver). Essentially, you are putting your money into an investment with tremendous upside potential but no risk.

I also think this might be a good investment for Americans for the same reasons as above, plus if the US$ devalues against the CDN$, they would make money (or more accurately, not lose money) as well.

This is a more conservative approach since you are essentially paying a small premium to hedge your investment. You will not 'make' money until silver is 22$/oz or more, but you cannot lose money either. I think of it like 'cash', with upside potential.

Thoughts?

didn't you post something about this awhile back? (and get a bunch of snarky answers?) seems like I remember reading this before...

[patience]

Ah, well, if the bottom falls out of the silver price, add a little scrap copper wire, and some 20 Mule Team Borax for flux, and I can braze a lot of stuff together with it in a charcoal forge. MacGyver, here.

[Revi]

Ah, well, if the bottom falls out of the silver price, add a little scrap copper wire, and some 20 Mule Team Borax for flux, and I can braze a lot of stuff together with it in a charcoal forge. MacGyver, here.

Cool!

[patience]

Just pointing out that silver has many uses. The best engine bearings, as in diesels for train engines and ships, have bearing inserts that are a high % silver, because is will stand a higher load and temperature than the lead/tin/copper alloys without seizing.

I read on Silverbearcafe.com, that world stocks of silver are being used faster than they are mined for many years. Talk about a manipulated market! If the laws of supply and demand ever overcome the manipulation, silver will go high indeed.

[Revi]

I have heard that too. Silver has lots of uses that use it up. I have even heard that the amount of silver in the world is less than gold, but I have a hard time believeing that.

It will have to go up.

[Micki]

Had you paid attention you could have read all that here long time ago.
And the silver is less quantity than Gold refers to above ground stocks. Silver, as you know, is being used up industrially whilst most of gold is not, so if a supply deficit exists for long enough of course the stocks will dwindle.
And didn't you read about Lyndon B Johnson using the reserve silver to surpress it's price after they stopped using silver in the common coins. He basically admitted they would keep selling reserves to prevent price from going up. Really no different from what is going on in gold as well.

[patience]

Micki,
Yes, this is probably where I saw it..

RE: PM manipulation, how long can the .gov keep that up? If the buyers are CB's, I guess for quite a while, but some of it goes to private hands, I would think. Surely, their string will run out one day?