[ReverseEngineer]

This is not newz as far as I am concerned. I have been hammering down for months on the fact the paper trade in precious metals in NO WAY is reflective of the actual amount of Gold and Silver out on the market to buy. Both the Silver and Gold mrkets are complete Ponzis, with people investing money in stuff that doesn't really EXIST at all, not in anywhere near the amounts being bet here anyhow.

When this market collapses, as it must, theoretically speaking the value of any REAL Gold or Silver you have IN YOUR Possesion would SKYROCKET. However, in relation to what is one question, and how exactly you would go about trading it is another question once the paper (or really digital) market collapses? You would have to trade it physically as a Barter Item, and frankly the Value of an American Eagle versus the value of a good Pistol and some Ammo is pretty small. I certainly wouldn't trade MY .50 Caliber Smith and Wesson for a pouch FULL of Gold Eagles.

If there is a means for you to convert your possessed Gold Eagles into the Currency of the Day in paper money, this might provide you with a means to secure some wealth. However, its unlikely once the electronic markets collapse that there will be a good way to do this. I honestly believe even if you have several pounds of Gold Coins in your Basement Safe they will not do you much good here, not a lot more good than having a Safe full of Copper Pennies. However, they definitely have more value than Toilet Paper, so if you have excess TP you haven't spent on preps, ammo and guns, if you can get hold of some POSSESIBLE Gold, its a better way to dispose of your TP than as mattress stuffing.

Reverse Engineer

[IslandCrow]

We shall have to start mining the sky to meet the physical demand:- as they say that 'every cloud has a silver lining'.

[Micki]

This is not newz as far as I am concerned. I have been hammering down for months on the fact the paper trade in precious metals in NO WAY is reflective of the actual amount of Gold and Silver out on the market to buy. Both the Silver and Gold mrkets are complete Ponzis, with people investing money in stuff that doesn't really EXIST at all, not in anywhere near the amounts being bet here anyhow.

When this market collapses, as it must, theoretically speaking the value of any REAL Gold or Silver you have IN YOUR Possesion would SKYROCKET. However, in relation to what is one question, and how exactly you would go about trading it is another question once the paper (or really digital) market collapses? You would have to trade it physically as a Barter Item, and frankly the Value of an American Eagle versus the value of a good Pistol and some Ammo is pretty small. I certainly wouldn't trade MY .50 Caliber Smith and Wesson for a pouch FULL of Gold Eagles.

If there is a means for you to convert your possessed Gold Eagles into the Currency of the Day in paper money, this might provide you with a means to secure some wealth. However, its unlikely once the electronic markets collapse that there will be a good way to do this. I honestly believe even if you have several pounds of Gold Coins in your Basement Safe they will not do you much good here, not a lot more good than having a Safe full of Copper Pennies. However, they definitely have more value than Toilet Paper, so if you have excess TP you haven't spent on preps, ammo and guns, if you can get hold of some POSSESIBLE Gold, its a better way to dispose of your TP than as mattress stuffing.

Reverse Engineer

Yes we have nown for yonks now that the paper market is much larger than the physical. But this was the first set of numbers I came across for Silver and it is still worth noting how the derivatives have grown in just two years. It is definelty a case for owning physical silver. It will do better than even twinkies or mittens.

[TreeFarmer]

Micki, when I first glanced at your signature I thought you had a quote from Moist von Lipwig!

TF

[Arsenal]

I really don't understand why someone would take a paper "promise" of metal vs. having physical on hand. If you can't touch it, then you don't own it.

[Micki]

Micki, when I first glanced at your signature I thought you had a quote from Moist von Lipwig!

TF

Naeh, he is the Anti-Ludwig von Mises.
But both like gold

[Jotapay]

I've always thought the silver market was more manipulated than gold. They HAVE to keep the price of silver down by flooding the market with fake ETF certificates, which allows silver to be affordably used by industry. Industry *must* have access to silver, that is non-negotiable. To keep prices affordable for industry and keep physical silver available to them, you must suppress price either by price controls or flooding the market with an alternative (ETFs). Has anyone noticed that the rate of silver consumption in industry has exceeded the rate of production for about ~10 years now? Something like 80-90% of all silver ever produced has been used up, no longer available. How do current prices make sense then, unless an ever increasing supply of fake ETF silver was pushed into the markets to replace the silver taken off the markets by industry?

The market price of silver is a joke and physical silver is exceedingly valuable in reality. Whether an ounce of silver will ever actually demand 50 X Current Price remains to be seen, but that is the current situation in reality.

[Micki]

I don't know if I buy that specific argument about industry.
Can you give one example (except jewlery and silver cuttlery industry) where the manufacturing cost per item would be seriously impacted if silver went from say $12 to $52 or even $322?
Must things I can think of only uses small amounts of silver and even a very high silver price would have minimal impact on the overall cost.
I see more as result of demonetisation and paper plays that kept creating more doo doo that they tried to fix by selling more. Looking at the whole financial mess, the approach of CB's and governments the approach simply seems to be if it doesn't work just repeat and do it bigger. Silver plays are probably no different.

[Micki]

I've seen the IMF card being pulled out about 112 times now since 2005.
First of all it wouldn't be done to benefit poor countries. Most of these countries benefit from high gold prices as it is good for their mining whilst low POG is disasterous. Even reasonably well off countries like SA has loudly complained when there has been gold dumping.

Otherwise just a few thoughts arounf the IMF sale.
1) It requires congressional approval. Before that is given there won't be any sale.
2) Several CB's have turned buyers. Wonder if the IMF gold would be sold on the open market at all or directly to CB or soverign fund.
One thought I've had is that they may make a sale to parties who already leased the gold, in order to protect them. IMF as you might now actually doesn't have the gold, it is just pledged by member nations. And if these in turn are running low on stock, it may be just a pure paper play with big headlines.

Anyway, with the physical demand in place now a dump like this would have a price impact but I doubt it would have any longer term impact at all. In fact it could be longer term bullish knowing that CB's have less ammo for surpression and may later have to become buyers again.

I am right now reading LeMetropoleCafe and here is a snippet about physical withdrawals from COMEX suggesting hign demand for physical.


Excuse the long quote but the article is protected and cannot be linked to.

COMEX Warehouse Stocks April 6, 2009

The mass exodus of metal from the COMEX continues. Today April 6 2.1 Million ozs of silver were withdrawn from the dealer’s inventory. The dealers have now had 8.5Mozs of silver withdrawn in 4 days. This is truly phenomenal. The breakdown is as follows:

SILVER

2,092,227 ozs withdrawn from the dealer’s inventory.
496,039 ozs deposited in the customer inventory
Total dealer inventory 64,904,847 Mozs
Total customer inventory 52,848,067 Mozs
Combined Total 117,752,915 MOZ

GOLD

ZERO ozs withdrawn from the dealers (registered) category


63,249 ozs deposited in the customer (eligible) category


Total dealer inventory 2.695 Mozs


Total customer inventory 5.889 Mozs


Combined Total 8.584 MOZ

The drawn down in silver running at 2 million ozs each day needs to be watched closely. To put this in perspective 2 Million ozs is 10% more than all the silver mined in the world in a day! It is 62 tonnes, or 2000 times one thousand ounce bars which would need 4 tractor-trailers to move it. In reality it will not be moved by tractor trailer but by Brinks security trucks which probably can’t take more than 4 tonnes so 16 Brinks security trucks would be needed each day. This is a massive amount of silver withdrawal.

There are still 1.08 Mozs of gold delivery notices for April outstanding which is 40% of the dealer inventory. These physical moves are totally incongruous with the COMEX price action unless you know what GATA knows.
Cheers
Adrian…

Bill,
In our telephone conversation last night you mentioned that there may be a program purchasing and delivery schedule of some big entity on the silver side from COMEX. You may well be right. It could be that the amount being taken each day is the maximum that the COMEX warehouses can physically handle being limited by available secure trucks, time and manpower to load them.

In the last few days these were the withdrawals

4/1 Net withdrawal 2.193Mozs….. 1.2 Mozs from Dealers inventory 0.993 Mozs from Customers inventory

4/2 Net withdrawal 2.18Mozs ….. 1.2 Mozs from Dealers inventory 0.981 Mozs from Customers inventory

4/3 Net withdrawal 2.02Mozs…. 2.1 Mozs from Dealers inventory 0.094 Mozs added to Customers inventory

4/6 Net withdrawal 1.6Mozs …… 2.09 Mozs from Dealers inventory 0.496 Mozs added to Customers inventory

The gross amount of metal being handled each day is 2-2.5 Mozs.

This could get interesting!…

(LATE ADD, it sure is)...
COMEX Warehouse Stocks - ANOTHER 2 MILLION WITHDRAWAL SHOCKER!!!!

Bill,
COMEX Warehouse Stocks April 7, 2009

EVEN MORE STUNNING! Today April 7 we had yet another 2 Million oz withdrawal day from the COMEX warehouses. The breakdown is as follows:

SILVER

1656332 ozs withdrawn from the dealer’s inventory.
495,057 ozs withdrawn from the customer inventory
Total dealer inventory 63,314,243 Mozs
Total customer inventory 52,287,283 Mozs
Combined Total 115,601,526 MOZ

GOLD

1584 ozs withdrawn from the dealers (registered) category
ZERO ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) category
Total dealer inventory 2.692 Mozs
Total customer inventory 5.889 Mozs
Combined Total 8.583 MOZ

The drawdown in silver has no been running at 2 million ozs each day for 5 straight days. This MASSIVE demand is of course totally coherent with the price of silver being trashed recently (cough, cough!)
Cheers
Adrian


Delivery notices…

The COMEX April Contract delivery notices in silver just doubled today! They stand at 327 contracts or 1.63 Mozs. The delivery notices issued today were 166 contracts but yesterday there was only an Open Interest left in April of 49 contracts. Today the OI is has INCREASED to 196 contracts not decreased. Strangely the estimated volume in the April Contract is 5 contracts …it seems to me their estimated volume is very suspect! What this appears to me is that someone purchased 313 contracts in the April Contract and immediately stood for delivery on 166 of them to leave an OI of 196.

And what is interesting to hear is that Soros now agrees with me.
Well he didn't say it exactly like that. But in this interview he states that the increase we've seen in monetary base will have inflationary impact which the central banks will have difficulties in mopping up and this will result in STAGFLATION and it is positive for GOLD.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... &ccode=TBD

[Micki]

Not exactly news and pretty self evident in our day and age, but as this speach just surfaced it gives us a glimpse into market manipulation and precious metal surpression schemes that have been going on for decades. And to think it was only over a year ago when GATA was still being laughed at and believers in a PPT were considered tinfoil hatters.

"Now, all of you know these changes are necessary for a very simple reason--silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins.

If we had not done so, we would have risked chronic coin shortages in the very near future.

Some have asked whether our silver coins will disappear. The answer is very definitely-no.

Our present silver coins won't disappear and they won't even become rarities. We estimate that there are now 12 billion--I repeat, more than 12 billion silver dimes and quarters and half dollars that are now outstanding. We will make another billion before we halt production. And they will be used side-by-side with our new coins.

Since the life of a silver coin is about 25 years, we expect our traditional silver coins to be with us in large numbers for a long, long time.

If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content."

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1242061902.php

[Jotapay]

"Now, all of you know these changes are necessary for a very simple reason--silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content."

Silverseek

Yep. Two things: silver is used at twice the rate it is being produced and the price is being manipulated. Seems to me that silver should be a great investment, but with the government meddling in every market under the sun right now, who knows what is a good investment any more.

[Graeme]

Where Is Silver Heading Next?

Here is the background to this latest installment in the silver bull story as shown in the chart below. After a grinding bear market of 23 years, silver entered a new bull market on 21st March 2003. This bull will last 20 to 30 years as we enter an age of increasingly greater inflationary forces brought on by Baby Boomer retiree demands, Peak Oil and Silver as well as the underlying upwave of the well known Kondratieff wave.

The fundamentals that will propel wave 3 will be similar to wave 1 as the economy recovers, silver demand picks up industrially but again inflationary pressures begin to bear as commodity demand from China and elsewhere tightens. The inflationary effects of the worldwide credit crunch bailout will also finally filter through but we also expect Peak Oil to finally and decisively appear and oil to breach $200 and beyond. Wave 3 will occupy most of the next decade.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=11002

[cipi604]

nice one

[Tyler_JC]

As I write, we appear to be on the verge of smashing through $16/ounce.

We could see the return of $20 silver if the radical monetary expansion of the Fed doesn't stop.

[kiwichick]

silver going to $1000 .... within 10 years

[wisconsin_cur]

silver going to $1000 .... within 10 years

The follow up would be what will $1000 be worth in 10 years?

[Cloud9]

16$

[Micki]

I think that guy is just taking a punt.
First of all I've never heard of a kontradieff wave. K-cycles yes, but not waves.
Secondly he determines that the retracement isn't a full ABC retracement based on timing alone. Looking at the chart I would say it is impossible at this stage to say if it is a We B or a larger Wave 3 (or even large w1 or larger w3).
Although Silver can be quite volotile we have to remember that the recent bottom was the result of a bank shorting 138M ounces. So to assume that Silver is going to go down and retest or go below that level is quite an ask. If it took that kind of intervention then, what will it take now and who is going to dare to do it?

As technical traders always assume that whatever the chart shows is the result of a free market. Furthermore he assumes silver is going to act as an industrial commodity alone and not at all as a monetary metal.
So I would be careful taking his POS $9 prediction as gospel.

[Roy]

The follow up would be what will $1000 be worth in 10 years?

16$

Yep. The good thing in that scenario would be that my mortgage would be worth about $160, or 10 oz of silver...

Somehow I think the whole monetary system will collapse before silver gets that high. But $50-60/oz seems like it could happen with a functioning dollar.

But what do I know?

[Revi]

I'm going to quit buying silver now that it's over $15. It seems like a good place to stop. I was buying pre-64 coins for around 10 times face value, but the price recently jumped to 12 times face, so I'm out now.

If silver does go up to $40 or $50, it just means the dollar's tanking.

I think it will go up to around $20, and then fall back down.

All commodities will tank briefly, then come back up again next year as inflation finally rears it's ugly head.

That's when the silver comes in handy.