[EnergyUnlimited]

In 2000 in California for example, a temporary 5% natural gas shortfall caused a 400% increase in price. A 20% disruption in refined fuel capacity following Hurricane Katrina caused the price of fuel to increase by more than 50%, etc.

Heating your home is essential, wearing shiny stuff no.

You also argue that jewelry and photography are not necessary, but I would argue that the hundreds of millions of women who wear jewelry and use film will still want the benefit of those goods.

It is unimportant.
Hundreds of millions of women want a lot of gold, diamonds etc but they are only getting quite restricted quantities of these.
At the end they will prefer daily meal than something shiny to wear, albeit there might be few silly exceptions.

Kodac only raised global analog film prices by 5%, and made a big deal about having to do it. And I think that the 5 billion or so people who have never even seen a digital camera or computer will still be wanting to get their picture taken sometime in their lives, so standard film will be in demand for a long, long time to come.

Man, Kodak is already withholding their analogue products from the market and within a year or two they will *close* network of laboratories processing analogue films.
That is already over...

[ubercrap]

Why does no goverment pensions=doom?

[kjmclark]

The dollar tanks, Silver tanks.

How so?

[Couldn't resist.]

So let me point out a counter-example: it's known as inflation. Look it up.

[kjmclark]

I find it hilarious when people say that everything will be so bad that there will be no governmental pensions but yet industrial demand for silver will be higher than it ever was in history. of mankind. Make your pick, you can't have both. You want to speculate on silver and get other people onto the train be my guest, but at least don't call it investment so they don't know that you you have no idea of what investment is.

Whew. We're having an imagination problem here today. Again, a fairly common counter-example: something known as inflation. There are lots of good articles out there on the web about it.

While I'm at it, here's another: war. As in "we need silver for military purposes, so hand it over" and "we need temporary funding assistance, so we're temporarily confiscating your government pension fund, but don't worry, we've always paid it back in the past." And yes, the federal government has raided the G and F funds a handful of times recently for temporary funding needs.

You're right though, that it's more likely that the account will be there, just not worth much, while the dollar crashes and commodity prices skyrocket in dollar terms. That's just basic dollar devaluation.

[kjmclark]

Guns
Ammo
Cigs
Liquor
What good will a hunk of Silver do?

Riiiiight. A fast-crash doomer. As in "Gold and silver are still worth a fortune in "World Made By Hand", because Kunstler's such a pollyanna." and "Gold and silver are still worth a fortune in "Patriots", because Rawles is a pollyanna too." and "Heck, gold and silver are still valuable in "Max Max Beyond Thunderdome", but that was a joke, and Babe was made down there!"

Nope, we're waking up "On the Road." Cannibal zombies, guns, ammo, and abandoned bomb shelters; any day now. Took nukes in "On the Road", but we're going to get there tomorrow by higher oil prices.

[Full disclosure: don't have any cigarettes. If they're really worth having post peak, I'll run out and buy some the day before Armageddon with some of my silver.]

[OutOfGas]

Silver and Gold have always been used for money and barter because of their rarity and inertness.

Buying junk silver coins and 10 OZ silver bars are a good investment if "TSHTF".

You have much more leverage buying silver than gold. You also need physical possesion of the metal.

If you have ETF's or it's in a lockbox, you may be hosed.

[vision-master]

So, your going to trade a silver bar for some food items?

[OutOfGas]

So, your going to trade a silver bar for some food items?

That's the way it has always worked. People have always been ready to die for gold and silver.

[vision-master]

So, your going to trade a silver bar for some food items?

That's the way it has always worked. People have always been ready to die for gold and silver.

But are we entering something totaly different this time?

[PrestonSturges]

I skipped pretty much the whole stock market crash when I heard George Soros advise everyone to go money markets last March.

But today I went back to where I was, putting 70% back into REREX, which climbs whenever the dollar dips.

[Pretorian]

I find it hilarious when people say that everything will be so bad that there will be no governmental pensions but yet industrial demand for silver will be higher than it ever was in history. of mankind. Make your pick, you can't have both. You want to speculate on silver and get other people onto the train be my guest, but at least don't call it investment so they don't know that you you have no idea of what investment is.

Whew. We're having an imagination problem here today. Again, a fairly common counter-example: something known as inflation. There are lots of good articles out there on the web about it.

While I'm at it, here's another: war. As in "we need silver for military purposes, so hand it over" and "we need temporary funding assistance, so we're temporarily confiscating your government pension fund, but don't worry, we've always paid it back in the past." And yes, the federal government has raided the G and F funds a handful of times recently for temporary funding needs.

You're right though, that it's more likely that the account will be there, just not worth much, while the dollar crashes and commodity prices skyrocket in dollar terms. That's just basic dollar devaluation.

how does this refute anything that i said there?

[kjmclark]

how does this refute anything that i said there?

Well, you wrote:

I find it hilarious when people say that everything will be so bad that there will be no governmental pensions but yet industrial demand for silver will be higher than it ever was in history. of mankind. Make your pick, you can't have both.

So I gave you two situations where government employee pensions could be worthless but silver would be in great demand. Those were inflation, and war. I noted somewhere else that dollar devaluation might have the same effect.

[pedalling_faster]

Silver has a number of unique properties including its strength, malleability and ductility, its electrical and thermal conductivity, its sensitivity to and high reflectance of light and the ability to endure extreme temperature ranges. [b]Silver’s unique properties restrict its substitution in most applications.

silver is very similar to copper in the 2 qualities that make it useful in electronics -
electrical and thermal conductivity.

strength, malleability and ductility are also in the same ballpark.

like Yoda said, "hard to say, always in motion is the future".

there are some logistics involved. $10K worth of silver will not fit in a normal safe deposit box; $10K worth of gold, no problem.

of course, a lot of precious metals owners frown on the use of safe deposit box' for stash storage.

[Pretorian]

how does this refute anything that i said there?

Well, you wrote:

I find it hilarious when people say that everything will be so bad that there will be no governmental pensions but yet industrial demand for silver will be higher than it ever was in history. of mankind. Make your pick, you can't have both.

So I gave you two situations where government employee pensions could be worthless but silver would be in great demand. Those were inflation, and war. I noted somewhere else that dollar devaluation might have the same effect.

Sorry but no, it doesn't come even close. If you take war , silver is by far not as essential as copper or nickel. Not even world war 3 with every country participating will match current industrial demand for silver let alone exceed it. In fact it will reduce it drastically as no one will have monies to buy silverware, jewelry, make film photographs, useless memorial coins ets. Again if the state will be destitute enough to not being able to pay pensions to governmental employees it will mean total and absolute poverty of population which again leads to destruction of demand.
Plus, what do you think happened with all that silver that was mined in the last 6000 years? Do you think it has a half-life or something? I can dig in my draws a little and make you a silver ring with silver that was mined 2500 years ago. I have a silver chain that was made around 200 AD. Good as new. So? How much silver do you need to survive? Per day, per year?
If you take (global) inflation in count, it will reduce the demand for silver as people will be poorer. Again, if you want to hedge , why silver? You can pick pretty much anything be that honey , salt , knives, diapers or glass beads and have same result or better.
I'm not saying of course that silver has no potential for speculation but overpaying 30-40% over spot jsut because the silver round says "USA" does not lead anywhere but loss.
Such fixation on silver&gold of many forum members reminds me of a popular and fascinating by its ridiculousness " Iraqi dinar investment" scam. You should be familiar with it as you mentioned you've been in Iraq.

[Pretorian]

As an additional idea to the OP, why not "invest" in depleted uranium for a change? Market is certainly there; most importantly, you don't even have to pay for it if you do it right.

[Arsenal]

Gold and silver have always been worth something. Since we started using it as money it has held more value than any other form of money. I won't argue why I think silver and gold will be a beneficial item to have in your preps but you are trying to buck history. Thousands of years of history and you still don't see the facts. FIAT will always return to its original value.

Plus, what do you think happened with all that silver that was mined in the last 6000 years? Do you think it has a half-life or something?

Well. Since it has been used in just about every electronic device in some small form..... Motherboards, cell phones, etc... There is no profitable way to recycle it at this time so it sits in landfills. If you have the time to wait a couple thousand of years, you might start digging in old landfills but until then it is consumed. Millions of ounces are consumed each year. 30.98% in the form of silver nitrate and silver halides, 20.03% was used in jewelry, 38.51% for industrial uses, and only 3.5% for coins and medals in 2007 of the 894.5 million ounces of silver in supply.

So buy all the mittens, copper, whatever the f&%^ you think will be worth something but leave your BS at the door. The above is facts. Cold and hard facts. What you bring is speculation.

[Pretorian]

Gold and silver have always been worth something.

as were glass beads and toilet paper.

Since we started using it as money it has held more value than any other form of money. I won't argue why I think silver and gold will be a beneficial item to have in your preps but you are trying to buck history. Thousands of years of history and you still don't see the facts.

Beg your pardon? Facts? Sounds like you've heard something about History. Any fresh gossips about silver prices in Ancient Egypt, Greek Egypt, Roman Egypt, Byzantine Egypt, Mamluk Egypt, Turkish Egypt, British Egypt, ets? No? Any idea about prices in ancient Greece, Carthage and Rome? Not really, huh?

[Arsenal]

as were glass beads and toilet paper.

And are they still? Hmm.. Lets compare how many years silver/gold are used as currency against glass beads. In fact, I will make you a deal. I will send you 10 glass beads if you send me 10 1oz Gold Eagles.

Beg your pardon? Facts? Sounds like you've heard something about History. Any fresh gossips about silver prices in Ancient Egypt, Greek Egypt, Roman Egypt, Byzantine Egypt, Mamluk Egypt, Turkish Egypt, British Egypt, ets? No? Any idea about prices in ancient Greece, Carthage and Rome? Not really, huh?

Fresh gossips about silver from ancient civilizations. Come on. Funny thing is almost all those civilizations you mentioned used gold and silver for eons. Silver, in the form of electrum (a gold-silver alloy), was coined to produce money in around 700 BCE. So if you can add, please tell me how many years silver/gold has been used as money vs your freaking glass beads and TP. If you paid for an education please ask for a refund.

[some_math_guy]

Agreed - even though there is plenty of above-ground silver in electronics etc, most of it will never be recovered because it will never be economically feasible to recover it, no matter what the price of silver is. For example, a keyboard has less than a dime's worth of silver in it. How much would it cost to retrieve 1/20 oz of silver from a keyboard? Even if silver was 100$/oz it wouldn't make sense. That silver will remain in landfills forever.

Along the same lines, there are about 2.4 billion kilograms of gold dissolved in the world's oceans, but none of it will ever be retrieved because 167 billion liters of water must be processed to obtain 1 kg gold, worth less than $35,000 at today's prices. That's a cube of water 5.5km on a side.

The amount of silver used in almost anything is trivial, so price makes little difference on the demand side. There are no substitutes for many of silver's uses. End of story.

So, let's all agree to disagree and say that once you have your guns, food, cigs, and liquor...buy silver.

[Arsenal]

Works for me.